The following is from a document prepared in 2002. The views on home networking and broadband have come to pass. The other point I noticed in here was the expectation that 3G would hit North America in 2006. That turned out to be premature.

August 27th, 2002

External environment

Consumer & technology issues to consider, within the context of {text replaced} Banks and their investment online

Introduction

This section is intended to consider external influences, and provide clarification on those issues which often arise, and which tend to cloud decision making as to status, eg wireless.

Wireless

In October 2001 we had {text replaced – our wireless provider} provide an assessment of the current state of wireless technology and in particular the timeframes for improvement to devices that might assist in more rapid adoption of wireless devices as Internet access points to perform Online Banking.

The outcome of that review is that wireless is not expected to have a significant impact until 2005/2006. We do not need to consider wireless for 2003, and will retain in the background, watching for any new environmental factors which could change the current assessment.

Broadband

Broadband is still in relative infancy, but the current adoption rates are reminiscent of Internet adoption in the early days of 1996/97. On that basis broadband is something we need to keep our eyes on, and to ensure we consider the customer needs in that context.

Broadband raises the bar for customer expectations yet again, and in two aspects:

“Always on”

“Wait time”

“Always on”

Internet access for most today, falls in the paradigm of, booting the computer, dialing in, listening to strange modem sounds, and finally the satisfaction of “connection”.

Broadband is always sold as an unlimited access package, and this means walking over to the PC that has been turned on for the last several weeks, clicking on the browser, and seeing immediate response from the web site of choice.

This new immediacy places Internet firmly into the category of just another utility, like water, telephone or electricity. The customer expectation takes a dramatic shift up, and that shift is irreversible.

“Wait time”

Broadband also has the benefit that is better known, of speed. Web pages are returned immediately. Any issues with “ISP slowness” evaporate, so the speed of the ultimate server connection is immediately responsible in the users opinion for any slowness or connection problems. This may not be entirely fair, or justifiable in a technology context, but it is the customer expectation to which we must adapt.

Home networking

An associated and fast evolving technology to broadband is that of Home Networking. This means that several PC’s within the household can share one fast Internet connection, on all the time. With the advent of wireless networks, and the very simple plug and play installation, the trend is expected to rapidly grow in 2003.

It’s too early to be sure of the impact here, but online banking application development, and the Call Centre, in the future might have to consider:

Multiple concurrent users from the same household (CIF issues, authentication issues)

Multiple concurrent users from the same access domain (MIS, authentication)

Technology support call content will expand