How do you keep up?  Information overload.  How do people deal with the variety of information sources, and more specifically, what are the impacts on future marketing? 

Chris asks an interesting question about what happens when the “long tail starts experiencing this problem and revolts by abandoning social networks in droves”. 

What interests me in this arena is the change to how people purchase.

The Cluetrain premise is that people will ignore broad marketing push, and instead, seek out solutions based on peoples and peer opinion, from inside and outside companies.  It has become broadly accepted, that tools such as blogs, wiki’s and social networks will facilitate that interface to let consumers locate the opinions, and therefore the services/ products they require.

I see two related issues:

1. proliferation of information: Favourite web pages, blogs, rss feeds, custom home pages, social networks, instant messages, emails.
2. proliferation of advertising.  As information sources proliferate, advertisers are entering those sources in droves with various tools and methods to ensure peers promote their product.  They are inventing splogs to penetrate the blog space, tag search and blog search.  They are all throughout search, social networks, everywhere you look.

Most people are not using tools such as Adblock, so the reality for the mainstream user is that they are experiencing this proliferation, probably even worse than the thick end of the tail.  The standard reaction to too much of something is to ignore it.  At best, peoples reaction is to hunker down, and focus on what interests them, but how will they sort through it all.

Back to the question that Chris posed.  He goes on in that post to talk about potential methods, supported by tools such as Digg, Spokeo, and the reader, using his own custom page or rss reader. 

People will gravitate to the things they know, such as email, search, and the easy to find avenues from there.  The extra piece of the equation is how GenX and GenY deal with all that.  They are more inclined to technology, but they are no less troubled by information overload.  The difference is that they are /have grown up with social networks, Digg, and other meme services, so are more likely to seek out tools that make their life manageable.  So its likely that such tools will become more prevalent, and mainstream than today.

Back to the premise, and the worry that people will abandon social networks.  I have little doubt about two things on that score:

1. advertising will never go away
2. people will continue to try to avoid it

I covered a piece in the NYT a while back that MySpace was going to suffer from advertising, and users would leave.  That dynamic will continue, as people seek, find or uncover networks that are not polluted, and that are satisfactory to them.

But more specifically, the long tail is precisely why we don’t have to worry about people abandoning social networks.  As much as MySpace will make headlines, people will find tools and sources for whatever they need.  They will gravitate towards what they consider trusted sources.  The new element will be trusted, and what tools or services will exist to drive trust.

The concept of trust will become essential.  Trust will take on new meaning in this world.  That’s what appeals to me about OpenId, that I attempted to explain here, at least in a banking context.  Such tools will provide people with total control over their personal preferences.  The promise is that control will translate into control over what they see, and that’s a problem that isn’t solved yet, but at least providing control over personal preferences no matter where you navigate, would be an amazing start.  Anyone who violates your trust is crossed of your list.

There are other kinds of trust as exhibited in eBay, and Amazon.  This kind of trust is being levered in financial services now, with Zopa, and Prosper being the best known examples.  This kind of trust is predicated on reputation.  The problem is that reputation is tied to one site, but its a start.

Relevance to Bankwatch:

Its clear there are more problems than answers.  Banks are starting to use paid advertising and Search Engine Optimization (SEO) [UK mortgage example 

PAID:

1. online mortgage site, 
2. if.com – HBOS, 
3. Woolwich – Barclays],

SEO

Nationwide, and  bunch of broker sites

Paid advertising and search will always be there, but this is not long tail stuff.  Getting a mortgage in Bristol from a small provider will get overwhelmed by the big guys, and we know most do not go to the second page of search.

People will turn to their trusted sources, or just go offline.  Perversely, this makes the argument to stick with conveniently located branches.  But that’s not really the answer for Banks’, because leaders will drive down processing costs, and branch networks will not be affordable. 

This is why it is essential that Banks start to understand social networks now.  Start, work with it, learn from it.  The VanCity example I covered earlier and Wells Fargo are the leaders in this space.

The answer for the Cluetrain vision, will lie in solutions that facilitate trusted conversations within groups (social networks) that provide advice, which is valued because of the reputation of the participants.  Banks will only get there by experimenting and working with the medium.  There is no magic bullet.  Meantime the non Bank competitors are prowling and circling.