apophenia makes a great point and defines the prediction on social networks well. 

Users will tire of large-scale, portal-style social network sites like MySpace and Facebook in 2007″ but the framing of it as “social network fatigue” reveals the inherent problem in this prediction. Users aren’t going to tire of their friends but they will tire of problematic social spaces that make hanging out with friends difficult.

Source: apophenia: some thoughts on 2007 (advertising, bullying, and mobile)

I see this as a healthy shift.  I personally don’t buy social networks as a business model per se.  That’s like suggesting operating a free meeting place, and implementing coffee as an afterthought.  A coffee shop is a coffee shop. 

I see social as a bootstrap to online business models, that bring the final element required to make the online model attractive to users.  Think eBay.com, Amazon.com, Wesabe.com, ChangesEverything.ca.  As I discussed here, the nature of successful online business is not the obvious one.  Amazon is no more about books, than eBay is about auctions.  Books and auctions are merely a function, that is superceded by something grander, and in both cases, social is one element that pulls it together.

This is a theme I am working into my LIFT07 presentation next week, so more to come post Feb 9th on that.  Meantime, thoughts are most welcome, because this is not yet crystal clear, and the discussion will go on long after Feb 9th.

(PS  .. spell check is a funny thing.  MySpace showed up in Live Writer with the suggestion ‘misplace’)