There are stories all over the world that remain in the subtext, but are centred on one issue … inflaton.  There is much talk of emerging economies.  The facts are that many of the countries that are credited with the growth potential (Russia, China, India) will still find themselves in the situation of significant inflation, and that will result in changes to policies in those countries, that will have global implications.

In short the future is not linear, and certainly not as clear as what we might think.

ft.com

Spare capacity in the economy (Russia), which facilitated its rapid growth over the past decade, is now running out. The state statistics agency estimates that capacity utilisation in key sectors such as metals and chemicals has risen to more than 90 per cent. The squeeze on resources is spurring inflation, now running at about 14 per cent year-on-year. Food is the main culprit, but other prices are also rising. Reining in domestic demand will be tough. Nominal wage growth, according to Capital Economics, has hit 30 per cent year-on-year.

A decade after the Asian crisis, governments from China to Russia are still trying to achieve the impossible.