The purchase of Marshall & Ilsley by BMO provides some instructive and fascinating insight into what is bad about the US Banking crisis during 2007 – 2009.
Highlights for the period 2006 – 2009:
- Capital is relatively unchanged
- Loans and mortgages grew $4 BN
- Brokered deposits grew $4BN
Conclusion for M&I – recipe for disaster. The management team should be fired and I would assume that is part of the purchase arrangement. They had $1Bn + in TARP assistance and the above is a classic example of why.
That aside, this is a bank with a lot of history and presumably serving a group of customers in solid towns and neighbourhoods.
There remains two questions:
- Is the discounted price of $4BN enough of a discount?
- Will BMO/ Harris be able to implement a sufficiently efficient integration to reap the $250 million annual cost saving projected.
Re 1. my money is on Downe and team and their capital market background – the discount will be adequate.
I worry more about 2. This integration opportunity is 100% technology. There is no opportunity to close proximate BMO and M&I branches.
At the end of the day this feels more like a buy low and sell later at a profit kind of deal. Time will tell.
