World Bank 2023
Global growth is projected to slow to its third-weakest pace in nearly three decades, overshadowed only by the 2009 and 2020 global recessions. Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies is predicted to remain below its average rate of the past two decades. Any additional adverse shocks could push the global economy into recession. Small states are especially vulnerable to such shocks because of their reliance on external trade and financing, limited diversification, elevated debt, and susceptibility to natural disasters. Immediate policy action is needed to bolster growth and investment, including redirecting existing spending, such as agricultural and fuel subsidies.
Introduction – Word Bank Global Economic Prospects (Emerging Economies)
The crisis facing development is intensifying.
Our latest forecasts indicate a sharp, long-lasting slowdown, with global growth declining to 1.7 percent in 2023 from 3.0 percent expected just six months ago. The deterioration is broad-based: in virtually all regions of the world, per-capita income growth will be slower than it was during the decade before COVID-19. The setback to global prosperity will likely persist: By the end of 2024, GDP levels in emerging-market and developing economies (EMDEs) will be about 6 percent below the level expected on the eve of the pandemic. Median income levels, moreover, are being eroded significantly—by inflation, currency depreciation and under-investment in people and the private sector.
The latest Global Economic Prospects report highlights why the outlook is particularly devas- tating for many of the poorest economies, where poverty reduction has already ground to a halt. Total debt among EMDEs is at a 50-year high, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has added major new costs. This leaves no room for fiscal support at a time when people are still suffering from COVID-related setbacks in health, education and nutrition.
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