Iran and Saudi Arabia just agreed to restore relations, with support from China but importantly no direct action by them.

I am watching China a lot these days because there are economic and political influences that impact Banks, western markets and economic valuations. China just by its size creates impact just with small movements – literally the elephant in the room. It is the more significant with one single authoritarian leader.

I am in the camp that says US policy impressing China to become more authoritarian to balance US rhetoric making this a western problem if its own making.

So when I saw a traditional western ally Saudi Arabia make (apparent) friends with Iran and under the guidance of China it should make everyone sit up and try to understand. The omnipresent Atlantic Council have a handy summary of the current state and I encourage anyone interested to go there.

I would summarise there is much hedging going on in Saudi, Israel and others in the “Global South” and this move is a part.

I have captured some of The Atlantic Council points below which include many of the nuances including the more sophisticated angle from Saudi to the more obvious efforts of Iran to provide itself sir cover for its known terrorist activities which include Hezbollah as part of foreign criminal activity and part of the drug and gang routes between South America and Europe (RUSI – source Ditchfield).

Conclusion

On balance my view is this is a positive development for the world and should be treated accordingly and leave with the Intelligence Community to do their good work.

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Here are some points from The Atlantic Council research on what that means for the Middle East and the world

The most interesting part of this development, however, may be the role China played in helping to broker the deal. The broad contention in the Middle East, and by many in the United States, is that China only has a passive economic interest in the region and is content to simply be a free rider on US security guarantees. Having just yesterday concluded a conference on China-MENA ties in Doha, I can vouch that this theme was abundant as part of the experts’ views here. But economic and commercial ties often give way to political engagement, which eventually can lead to intelligence and security cooperation. We may now be seeing the emergence of China’s political role in the region and it should be a warning to US policymakers: Leave the Middle East and abandon ties with sometimes frustrating, even barbarous, but long-standing allies, and you’ll simply be leaving a vacuum for China to fill. And make no mistake, a China-dominated Middle East would fundamentally undermine US commercial, energy, and national security.

—Jonathan Panikoff is the director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative in the Middle East Programs

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When that happens, it will be a potent reminder to Riyadh that Beijing, for all its economic and now diplomatic influence, is an unreliable partner to ensure the Kingdom’s security. The Saudis may hope that their turn to China gives them leverage in demanding more weapons, security guarantees, and civil nuclear technology from the United States—packaged as compensation for a normalization deal with Israel. But their need for US support will not diminish and will require them to demonstrate to a skeptical administration, Congress, and American public that they are not turning to align their interests with China more than with the United States.

—Daniel B. Shapiro is the director of the N7 Initiative and a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former US ambassador to Israel, having served in that role from 2011 to 2017