Monetary policy is said to require about one to two years to have its maximum impact on inflation.
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From what is known so far, the cause for SVB’s demise was a classic asset-liability duration mismatch. The bank held a large portfolio of long-term bonds that had lost in market value as interest rates increased over the past year. As word began to spread about its weak financial situation, it did not have enough short-term liquidity to meet customers’ demands for deposit withdrawals. The bank was then forced to sell its assets and realize its losses, which eventually led regulators to step in.
With the Fed’s tightening cycle still in full swing, it stands to reason that SVB—the sixteenth largest US bank with $209 billion in assets at the end of 2022—is not the only bank or financial institution to experience maturity mismatches of this kind. FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg cautioned last week that the US financial system carries a $620 billion risk from value losses in bond portfolios. Much of this may be spread across smaller financial institutions, but it remains to be seen how other banks are able to cope with valuation losses on their balance sheets.
