Selected extracts from BlackRock Geopolitical dashboard. I would lean toward this dashboard as only contributing to a change in world order. Nonetheless a good report and worth signing up for.

BLACKROCK INVESTMENT INSTITUTE

Geopolitical risk dashboard

February 2023 | A new world order is taking shape. The Ukraine war and U.S.-China competition have fueled fragmentation and the emergence of geopolitical blocs. There has been a dramatic reduction in cooperation among major powers. Our BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator has declined from its 2022 peak, but market attention remains elevated.

I reproduce only three risk that caught my attention as being more novel and are in the ‘high’ quadrants.

These are taken from the BlackRock report.

Global technology decoupling

Technology decoupling between the U.S. and China signicantly accelerates in scale and scope.

Strategic competition between the U.S. and China is driving global fragmentation as both focus on boosting self-reliance, reducing vulnerabilities and decoupling their tech sectors. We see unprecedented U.S. semiconductor export restrictions against China accelerating the decoupling. Japan and the Netherlands appear set to roll out similar measures. The U.S. is weighing additional export controls on other technologies like quantum and AI, as well as a mechanism to review investments in China. The U.S. has enacted the CHIPS and Science Act aimed at boosting competitiveness in critical technologies. Technology was a focus of China’s 20th Party Congress, highlighting the drive for self-sufficiency.

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European fragmentation

The energy crunch and inflationary pressures lead to a populist resurgence and economic volatility.

The Ukraine war triggered a strong impulse toward European unity, as governments came together to sanction Russia and support Ukraine. Italy’s conservative government has so far avoided stoking tensions with the EU, and Brussels has shown openness to reform EU scal rules. FrancoGerman relations are improving. Europe has weathered the energy crisis this winter better than expected. We remain cautious of divisions emerging as the economic costs of the Ukraine war mount. Countries are still grappling with how to approach China in the increasingly competitive geopolitical environment.

Major cyberattack(s)

Cyberattacks cause sustained disruption to critical 0 physical and digital infrastructure

We see the pace of cyber attacks increasing as the RussiaUkraine conflict persists. Critical government and private sector networks, as well as infrastructure, are vulnerable to hacking and spying. Attacks are increasing in scope, scale and sophistication. The U.S. government is pushing for more protection requirements. Repeated attacks could cause significant damage and disruption that could spill over to financial markets and the economy.

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