I have watched AI progess for some time. Notes below from this blog in 2023. Open/ closed source misses the point. The future of AI lies in embedding the benefits throughout the country. Hence this blog focusses on productivity since..

This is a concept with a long enough horizon (50 years + ) that AI is similarly embedded across the country, busines and society. Achievement is orders of scale larger than open /closed,rather is dependant on scale across build and development.

AI will be pervasive across across society.

Simple and complex ai requires pervasive engagement in all facets of people, process and technology. It means both cheap smart data science scientists and society acceptance. That acceptance will be within AI and requires self understanding, in all realms and cultures.

See my posts from 2023. Some snippets.

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Open Source

Again my question is whether Open Source is a valuable means to achieve diffusion of AI across the economy and the population in order to achieve systemic productivity gains, thus step change in economic growth for the country.

Technology, productivity and country leadership

ChinaTalk is my latest goto podcast. Despite the name, the current themes are more related to an introspective view of technology strategy, leadership and how being the inventor does not associate with leadership.

The concept of diffusion deficit or diffusion surplus lies in the country’s capacity to lever the invention. This takes the form of widespread entrepreneurial adoption.

British Industrial Revolution

When we look at the centres of industrial development in England they cover entire counties across swathes of the country even today.

• Widen the base of AI engineering to become a general purpose technology. (GPT). Anything that improves AI diffusion. Eg community colleges. Voucher system to encourage were some ideas discussed. 
• GPT take 20 years to show up in productivity stats. 

AI – some super early predictions based on early study of ‘Diffusion Deficit’ 

Artificial intelligence (AI) currently has limited adoption in a narrow group of technology companies. Success in leadership countries needs to diffuse AI across the economy and the population in order to achieve systemic productivity gains, thus step change in economic growth for the country.