Category: AI

AI

A Requiem for Hyperglobalization

Colin Henderson

Why the World Will Miss History’s Greatest Economic Miracle By Dev Patel, Justin Sandefur, and Arvind Subramanian June 12, 2024 | Foreign Affairs A screen displaying currency exchange rates, Tokyo, May 2024 Issei Kato / Reuters The Berlin Wall’s fall was a unique moment in geopolitical history, ushering in an era of unipolarity as the United States became the world’s hegemon. But it also heralded an unprecedented economic phenomenon: convergence. As early as the fifteenth century, formerly prosperous societies from Mesoamerica to China suffered reversals of fortune, falling—or being pushed—behind the West. With the advent of the Industrial Revolution, growth … Continue reading A Requiem for Hyperglobalization

AI

Economist: What happened to the artificial-intelligence revolution?

Colin Henderson

So far the technology has had almost no economic impact Jul 2nd 2024| San Francisco Move to san francisco and it is hard not to be swept up by mania over artificial intelligence (ai). Advertisements tell you about how the tech will revolutionise your workplace. In bars people speculate about when the world will “get agi”, or when machines will become more advanced than humans. The five big tech firms—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft, all of which have either headquarters or outposts nearby—are investing vast sums. This year they are budgeting an estimated $400bn for capital expenditures, mostly on … Continue reading Economist: What happened to the artificial-intelligence revolution?

AI

Banks will still dominate news this week

Colin Henderson

Bloomberg 2023-03-26 What to Watch Valley National and First Citizens are both vying for the failed Silicon Valley Bank, people familiar said. The regional banks submitted separate bids for SVB to the FDIC before a Friday night deadline. Elsewhere, the US is mulling offering expanding an emergency lending facility for banks in ways that would give First Republic more time to shore up its balance sheet. Bond investors are piling into wagers that a US recession is around the corner amid a growing dissonance between how markets and the Fed see the economic outlook. The gap is particularly evident in … Continue reading Banks will still dominate news this week

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Bell vs Rogers – lessons learned

Colin Henderson

My own saga is complete now, and some interesting lessons learned. I was with Rogers for Mobile, internet and TV for over 15 years. I was generally satisfied but Rogers are high maintenance, with most activities requiring a phone call. Those calls were frustrating because I could tell the agent was operating multiple systems which were very slow to respond. There were very few calls less than an hour. I am now with Bell. Fast forward to the last year and following two severe full network failures I had had enough and realised I had not followed my own long … Continue reading Bell vs Rogers – lessons learned

AI

Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Aug 25th

Colin Henderson

The full agenda will be available at kansascityfed.org at 7 p.m. CT on Thursday, Aug. 25. On Friday, Aug. 26 at 9 a.m. CT, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks will be streamed on the Kansas City Fed’s YouTube channel, External Linkyoutube.com/kansascityfed. KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City will convene its annual Economic Policy Symposium, Aug. 25-27 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The 2022 event, which marks the symposium’s 45th year, will focus on the theme “Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy.” This year’s theme will explore the emergence of economic constraints during the pandemic … Continue reading Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Aug 25th

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Electronic bill presentment and payment needs an open solution | netbanker proposes one solution

Colin Henderson

Jim at Netbanker paints a great picture here about the potential for Doxo as a widepsread method of electronic bill presentment and payment (EBPP).  Having watched the evolution of EBPP both across North America and specifically in Canada with BMO and ePost since the ‘90’s the base business case has always been biller cost reduction.  There still remains the key question of what it will take to get to scale that allows the billers to actually reduce costs. While billers see cost reduction from paper and postage, they must still maintain some infrastructure for managing the monthly statements.  It seems … Continue reading Electronic bill presentment and payment needs an open solution | netbanker proposes one solution

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Black Swan events revisited – gas pipelines

Colin Henderson

This has to be one of those ‘say what?’ posts.  A couple of weeks ago we had that deadly explosion in San Bruno near San Francisco caused by a gas pipe explosion of some variety.  So now in the interests of transparency PG&E have been required to release details of any pipes that are considered potentially dangerous or requiring attention. Maps included. Well if you focus in on the #44 on the map, there is an 18’ foot segment near Menlo Park that is being ‘reviewed’. Just another consideration in crisis and black swan planning I guess  PG&E Planning Segment(s): … Continue reading Black Swan events revisited – gas pipelines

AI

Ontario Canada is becoming the new California, and not in a good way

Colin Henderson

Canada continues to be held in high regard throughout the ongoing crisis but the devil lies in the details.  Ontario which represents about 40% of Canadian GDP is beginning to look like Nero … fiddling while Rome burns.  Even at the Canada level the savings rate is going in the opposite direction of western economies, and adding to debt, ie not saving.  This perplexing environment is hard for Canadian Banks to formulate a credible strategy around. The Boeckh Investment Letter While Canada has deservedly had a good ride in recent years particularly through the global recession, due to strong Federal … Continue reading Ontario Canada is becoming the new California, and not in a good way

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Lots of contradictions in the economy, and banks’ response is to promote deposit accounts

Colin Henderson

What an interesting and contradictory set of headlines.  We really are an an economic crossroads with no roadmap.  The only change I observe with Banks at least in Canada is that they have directed their advertising towards deposit accounts and Investment Certificates.  Interesting times. Financial Times US banks ease lending standards Geithner calls for housing finance reform US housing starts make modest rebound US house mortgage arrears mount US pressure grows to extend tax cuts for rich US Housing US yields US builder slump deepens in August Call for careful overhaul of US mortgage lending Fed needs firepower to zap … Continue reading Lots of contradictions in the economy, and banks’ response is to promote deposit accounts

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Euro Bank Stress test – top level result

Colin Henderson

The Euro authorities (CEBS) reviewed 91 banks using two scenarios.  They review against benchmark and adverse scenarios.  Benchmark assumes modest economic recovery, and adverse assumes a double dip recession.  A host of assumption on GDP, unemployment etc were used to assess under those scenarios and are outlined in the document attached. Spring forecast 2009 publication15048_en Summaryreport_stress_tests Bottom line – 7 banks failed to meet the tier 1 threshold of 6% under the adverse test. Hypo Real Estate Holding (Germany) ATEbank (Greece) DIADA (Spain) Espiga (Spain) Banca Civica (Spain) Unnim (Spain) Cajasur (Spain) This from the report: As a result of … Continue reading Euro Bank Stress test – top level result