Category: AI

AI

Follow up to “Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates” (Chow, Halperin, Mazlish, 2025) – Test and Conclusion

Colin Henderson

introduces a novel approach for forecasting the timelines for transformative AI by analyzing macro-financial markets—specifically, the behavior of long-term real interest rates. TEST: apply this framework to current situation and explain what the output tells us about transformative AI timelines. Analysis Follows: (Perplexity.ai) 1. Theoretical Mechanism 2. Empirical Analysis Empirical evidence provided in the paper (across 59 countries, 35 years): Table: Key Relationships Macro Variable Empirical Finding Long-term GDP growth expectations Positively correlated with real interest rates Long-term growth volatility Slightly negative effect on real rates Short-term (0–5 yr) GDP growth forecasts Negative/ambiguous effect Country risk (CDS spreads) Positively correlated … Continue reading Follow up to “Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates” (Chow, Halperin, Mazlish, 2025) – Test and Conclusion

AI, AI_research, Economics

The paper “Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates” by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and J. Zachary Mazlish (August 2025)

Colin Henderson

Summary of Key Argument The core thesis of the paper is that macro-financial indicators—specifically, long-term real interest rates—can serve as a market-based “outside view” for forecasting the likelihood and timing of transformative AI (TAI, roughly equivalent to AGI or “superintelligence”) development. The mechanism underpinning this association is straightforward economic theory: Empirically, the authors find—contrary to some prior literature—a robust positive relationship between long-term growth expectations and real interest rates, using: Key Findings and Contributions Topic Paper’s Position & Evidence Interest rates as a forecasting tool Theoretically, both AI-driven rapid growth and existential risk should increase long-term real rates. Empirical evidence … Continue reading The paper “Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates” by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and J. Zachary Mazlish (August 2025)

AI

The most significant technology trends, product launches, and innovations from the past week

Colin Henderson

… include notable advances in artificial intelligence, major product unveilings by industry giants like Apple, accelerating investments in quantum computing and sustainability, and the emergence of key startup innovations across multiple sectors.[1][2][3] Major Technology Trends Notable Product Launches Startup and Venture Innovation Gadgets and Emerging Consumer Tech Big Tech Moves & Market Impact These collective trends—from generative and agentic AI to quantum breakthroughs, sustainable product engineering, and startup dynamism—are actively reshaping the near-term shape of the technology ecosystem.[5][2][1] Sources[1] September 2025 Tech Trends: AI Advances, Quantum Systems, and Sustainability https://www.webpronews.com/september-2025-tech-trends-ai-advances-quantum-systems-and-sustainability/%5B2%5D Startup Funding & Innovation Highlights: September 1–8, 2025 https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/startup-funding-innovation-highlights-september-18-2025-gooinn-chc4f%5B3%5D Apple’s … Continue reading The most significant technology trends, product launches, and innovations from the past week

AI, AI_factories, AI_research, Infrastructure

A comprehensive comparison between ‘compute’ and ‘inference’ in AI

Colin Henderson

An integrated analysis of technological, infrastructural, and operational factors including AI Factories, Data Centres, development practices, chips, and overall infrastructure. The following report—structured in APA format—presents a formal, detailed comparative overview, incorporating relevant business, academic, and technical sources.Source: Perplexity.ai Compute and Inference: Definitions and Context Compute generally refers to the computational resources required for both training and running AI models, whereas inference is the process by which a trained model makes predictions or decisions on new data. Compute is foundational for both the intensive process of AI model training and the comparatively lightweight process of model inference. AI inference utilizes … Continue reading A comprehensive comparison between ‘compute’ and ‘inference’ in AI

AI

ANTHROPIC

Colin Henderson

💰 Anthropic’s $183B valuation after massive funding Image source: Gemini / The Rundown The Rundown: Anthropic just announced a new $13B funding round that values the company at a whopping $183B, nearly tripling its worth from six months ago and coming amid significant growth from Claude Code and enterprise accounts. The details: Why it matters: While there has been plenty of chatter about an AI investment bubble, the dollars don’t seem to be drying up yet, especially for leaders on the frontier of the industry. While Anthropic previously turned down investments from the Gulf region, the expensive race for global compute from rivals may have … Continue reading ANTHROPIC

AI

Several significant technology trends, product launches, and innovations have emerged over the past week, illustrating the dynamic pace of advancement across big tech, startups, and consumer electronics.theverge+2

Colin Henderson

Major Technology Trends Notable Product Launches Key Startup Funding Announcements Moves by Established Companies Emerging Gadgets and Consumer Tech Summary Table CategoryHighlightDetailsTech TrendAI Integration, New ChipsMicrosoft, Alibaba, Metatheverge+1Product LaunchPowerbeats Fit, Smart Fish Tank, S7 Ultra MaxApple, DangbeithevergeStartup FundingCFS, Nauta, Copper, Rain, AurelianFusion, logistics, batteries, fintech, AIvcnewsdailyCompany StrategyWord goes cloud, Xbox sync, Meta hiresMicrosoft, MetathevergeConsumer InnovationPixel Care Plus, iPhone-like Calling CardsGoogletheverge These developments reflect the current momentum in AI, hardware design, enterprise tools, and ambitious startup innovation across the digital landscape.cnbc+2 Continue reading Several significant technology trends, product launches, and innovations have emerged over the past week, illustrating the dynamic pace of advancement across big tech, startups, and consumer electronics.theverge+2

AI

Indications that AI is replacing traditional search

Colin Henderson

Search using Google, Bing, etc has been the predominant means of locating any type of information online since the beginning, and really took off following arrival of the large search engines. AI has introduced a different and more conversational method of locating information and browsers are able to use extensions, or in case of Perplexity produced new browser (Comet) that is built around AI. This report from Sensor Tower highlights the shift that is now becoming evident. “This growth signals more than just curiosity; it’s a shift in behavior.” I am deliberately avoiding the word “chat”: AI is so much … Continue reading Indications that AI is replacing traditional search

AI

NVIDIA Introduces Spectrum-XGS Ethernet to Connect Distributed Data Centers Into Giga-Scale AI Super-Factories

Colin Henderson

CoreWeave to Deploy NVIDIA Spectrum-XGS Ethernet With Scale-Across Technology August 22, 2025 Hot Chips—NVIDIA today announced NVIDIA® Spectrum-XGS Ethernet, a scale-across technology for combining distributed data centers into unified, giga-scale AI super-factories. As AI demand surges, individual data centers are reaching the limits of power and capacity within a single facility. To expand, data centers must scale beyond any one building, which is limited by off-the-shelf Ethernet networking infrastructure with high latency and jitter and unpredictable performance. Spectrum-XGS Ethernet is a breakthrough addition to the NVIDIA Spectrum-X™ Ethernet platform that removes these boundaries by introducing scale-across infrastructure. It serves as a third … Continue reading NVIDIA Introduces Spectrum-XGS Ethernet to Connect Distributed Data Centers Into Giga-Scale AI Super-Factories

AGI, AI

The classical key to the AI revolution

Colin Henderson

Source Engelsberg ideas Since the time of Socrates, philosophy has operated as a small and badly funded intellectual insurgency against the hype and nonsense that inevitably afflicts our public discourse. Today, there is no greater prompt for hype and nonsense than AI technology. One important variant of AI hype centres on democracy. On a pessimistic view, prominent in circles such as the World Economic Forum, AI threatens the annihilation of democracy. AI algorithms supercharge the spread of misinformation and disinformation online. They intensify political polarisation through micro-targeting and social-media echo chambers. All this corrodes both the epistemic ecosystem and the ethos … Continue reading The classical key to the AI revolution