Category: AI

Agents, AI1 Comment

Agentic AI: State of Play & Emerging Risks — May 2026

Colin Henderson

Here is result of research on Agentic State of play outlining currently understood risks which could develop into issues. In fact there are multiple indications of Agent AI deployments that will be cancelled due to the evolving landscape of risks. Financial Services in particular are seeing gaps in compliance and regulatory areas as protocols which assumed human employee engagement bump up against Agents which will act on what they observe, and have no way to act on what they cannot see. My take is that insufficient attention is being paid to formal and informal data linkages. Prepared for Splunk session … Continue reading Agentic AI: State of Play & Emerging Risks — May 2026

AI

The state of global AI diffusion in 2026

Colin Henderson

The state of global AI diffusion in 2026 May 7, 2026 | Juan Lavista Ferres – Chief Data Scientist, Microsoft Today we published our latest Global AI Diffusion Report. The global adoption of artificial intelligence continued to rise in the first quarter of 2026. During the quarter, AI usage increased by 1.5 percentage points from 16.3% to 17.8% of the world’s working age population. Intensity of use among economies with the highest rates of AI diffusion also increased, with 26 economies now exceeding 30% of the working age population using AI. At the top of Microsoft’s National AI Leaderboard, the UAE continued to … Continue reading The state of global AI diffusion in 2026

AI

The pivot from payroll to compute is structural, not cyclical.

Colin Henderson

Bit Tech commits $725bn capex; simultaneously cuts headcount at scaleMeta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet have collectively signalled approximately $725 billion in capital expenditure for 2026 — up more than 75% year-over-year — almost entirely for data centres, custom chips, and AI infrastructure. Concurrently: Meta cutting 8,000 jobs in May, Amazon down ~30,000 roles, Microsoft offering voluntary buyouts to ~125,000 staff. • The pivot from payroll to compute is structural, not cyclical. • Source: Tech Startups, May 8 Continue reading The pivot from payroll to compute is structural, not cyclical.

AI

Hantavirus – what you need to know

Colin Henderson

Prompt (Claude AI) Does hantavirus only occur in ships? Are there moreexamples in say buidlings with poor pest control Output No, hantavirus is not specific to ships at all. Ships are just one environment where it can occur. Hantavirus transmission happens wherever infected rodents (primarily deer mice, white-footed mice, and rats) are present and their droppings, urine, or nesting material become disturbed and aerosolized. Common settings where outbreaks have occurred: Notable outbreak examples: The key risk factor is disturbing enclosed, poorly ventilated spaces where rodents have been active — sweeping or vacuuming dried droppings is particularly dangerous. Ships fit that profile, but … Continue reading Hantavirus – what you need to know

AI

Risks Cannot Be Mitigated Without Proper Risk Definition Based on Factual Structure — e.g. Hormuz

Colin Henderson

Colin Henderson | Bankwatch.ca Historical research and analysis – Claude.ai (analysis posted separately) The Structural Thesis The liberal rules-based order masks but does not correct the natural hegemonic propensity of powerful states. Institutional frameworks — democratic checks, multilateral structures, constitutional constraints — act as the brake on that propensity. Remove the institutional framework through autocratic or highly concentrated leadership, and the hegemonic drive expresses itself without the liberal mask. This is not a policy choice. It is a structural shift. And standard risk frameworks are not built to model it. Hormuz is the current operational instance of that thesis in … Continue reading Risks Cannot Be Mitigated Without Proper Risk Definition Based on Factual Structure — e.g. Hormuz

AI1 Comment

Liberal Values in the Post-WW2 Institutional Architecture – research and analysis

Colin Henderson

Research and analysis with Claude AI. Backgrounder to Risk Mitigation post: TITLE: Risks cannot be mitigated without proper risk definition based on factual structure – e.g. Hormuz Liberal Values in the Post-WW2 Institutional Architecture Prompt: Diplomacy and Values since WW2. What are the liberal values used in construction of post WW2 institutional architecture including but not limited to,  NATO, world bank, Marshall plan Output The post-WW2 order was a deliberate construction, driven by a diagnosis of what caused the catastrophe: nationalism, autarky, power politics without rules, and the failure of collective security in the 1930s. The architects — primarily American … Continue reading Liberal Values in the Post-WW2 Institutional Architecture – research and analysis

AI

OpenAI, Anthropic ramp up enterprise push

Colin Henderson

OpenAI and Anthropic are both partnering with private equity firms in a bid to deploy their AI products to more businesses.  OpenAI is forming a $10 billion venture, raising funding from investors including Brookfield and Bain Capital, Bloomberg reported. Anthropic on Monday announced a $1.5 billion joint venture with Wall Street firms that is expected to act as a consulting arm for Anthropic.  The rival AI startups are racing to win over more enterprise customers — 20% of US businesses have adopted AI tools, mostly to “supplement a small number of employee work tasks,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote. Both companies are focusing on a push … Continue reading OpenAI, Anthropic ramp up enterprise push

AI, Risk

AI in financial services: regulators 2 years behind banks

Colin Henderson

This post is targeted at both banks and regulators (OSFI in Canada ). More specifically Agentic AI is the risk frame here. Agentic AI is defined here in banking context, goes exponentially beyond automation. Take mortgage sourcing. Banks have multiple and defined process for mortgages that sources, adjudicates, processes and funds. Each step is calibrated and defined and understood by regulators and those mortgages go on to be bundled and sold as tranches with known, defined risks. Where Agentic AI takes over the agent determines the best and most effective process to follow and will establish improvements which could bundle … Continue reading AI in financial services: regulators 2 years behind banks

AI

Top 20 Arms Sales / Country 2023/4

Colin Henderson

Source: STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The independent resource on global security ____________________________________________ South Korea, Russia, Germany show significant increases. When we get 2025 data this trend will show even more of a shift to Europe, Asia reflecting NATO fracturing, and countries that support all growth (Korea). Why it matters: This will create shifts in investment choices and NATO structure, so worldwide implications. This is largely driven by US focus on own self interests and increasingly Israel lobby (AIPAC) influence on foreign policy with intended and untended consequences this brings. It remains to be seen whether this structural shift holds up … Continue reading Top 20 Arms Sales / Country 2023/4

AI

LLM inefficiency and what could be the better model than next-token prediction

Colin Henderson

A discussion I had with Anthropic Claude verbatim. (Bloomberg: circular support amongst small group of individual players and the inherent financial risk if current frontier models for AI cannot provide the expected value) Prompt: Re the financial risk referred to in this Bloomberg piece, is there any evidence of work on a better inference and reasoning model that doesn’t drive exponential requirements in data centre capacity to support the model. It seems the current model requires is highly inefficient requiring infinite capacity to support. # There’s substantial work underway — but with an important caveat that’s directly relevant to the … Continue reading LLM inefficiency and what could be the better model than next-token prediction