G.M. is attempting to use the economic crisis as a smokescreen


The prediction from December is unfortunately coming true.  It is time for the politicians to open their eyes – GM was losing money in 2004, and essentially bankrupt in 2006.  those were the supposed good years.  The matter of GM is not a credit crisis matter, rather a matter of bad management, that deserves the obvious fate.  As far back as 2006 GM’s liabilities exceeded assets by $6bn.  By 2008 the deficit was $60bn. The company is attempting to use the economic crisis as a smokescreen for their own deficiencies, and failure to re-engineer. GM to Offer Two Choices: Bankruptcy … Continue reading G.M. is attempting to use the economic crisis as a smokescreen

Time to accept reality, and value bank assets at their real value


This is yet another staggerring development that leaves only one simple and obvious conclusion. Bank assets must be valued to market value immediately.  The argument that the market cannot withstand the result which would of crouse imply enormous writedowns, probably beyond that which will be the ultimate result, but the argument to wait is no longer valid.  Banks have already been written down close to zero on the stock market in any event. Banks value their loan write downs based on historic data.  These times are an exception.  Time to predict based on locations, and job types – the result … Continue reading Time to accept reality, and value bank assets at their real value

A future that has hope for banking innovation only in North America?


In something that is a bit ironic, the Democratic US government is looking the most conservative in management of banks amongst the G-7 scheduled next week in Italy.  Geithner is also looking the most thoughtful of the finance ministers, alongside Lagarde in France. This is seriously not a time for grandstanding as Brown and Darling continue to do too often.  Time to get it right with a sustainable approach that will not relegate banks to becoming permanent financial utilities which I fear is happening when you read this dire summary of the current state. Could we have a system in … Continue reading A future that has hope for banking innovation only in North America?

Arrangement shelters ABCP worth 27% of Canadian Bank equity base


The always clear thinking Fareed wrote this piece on the Canadian Banking system and how it is the envy of the world.  The facts outlined are indisputable and the distinctions between the US and Canadian systems that favour care and moderation in Canada are all true. However there is one other event he does not mention, that has quietly gone on for the last 14 months and in fact just completed in January this year with the announcement noted below on the E&Y site dated Jan 21st, 2009. The story here goes back to December 2007, when I first noted … Continue reading Arrangement shelters ABCP worth 27% of Canadian Bank equity base

France fears backsliding on regulation


Ms Legarde was a bright star and clear thinker at the recent World Economic Forum.  There is not yet broad agreement on the methodology and priorities amongs the countries as to resolve the global crisis. In another interview she offers some indication of how globalisation actually works, and the comparison of UK and US approaches is stark.  There is a long history between UK and France, and now is not the time to let that get in the way. Transcript – Christine Lagarde – Finance Minister – France | ft.com BH: Are they retreating in Washington and London? CL: I … Continue reading France fears backsliding on regulation

Sep 18th 2008 | Russian Missile Crisis – banking crisis version


I heard the headline earlier today but only after listening to this video now do I appreciate the depth of this.  We know the Lehman Brothers collapse was serious but only now do we know to what extent.  This was the economic version of the Russian missile crisis. It also explains for the first time, the awkward and otherwise inexplicable overnight shift in TARP approach by Paulson. Listen to the comments at 2 minutes 20 seconds and from then on.  Kanjorski is the Chair of the Capital Markets Committee.  The key comments are: “it was about September 15th [note his … Continue reading Sep 18th 2008 | Russian Missile Crisis – banking crisis version

The flaw in the House Financial Services hearings \ misalignment on the paradigm


The hearings are going on this morning in Washington. After my rant about Wells Fargo yesterday, it is clear to me that apparently ill timed newspaper ad on the weekend was in fact timed to coincide with these hearings. I still think it was ill timed though. Listening to the introduction today from Barney Frank, Chairman and the commentary on CNN, the general view is that Banks are receiving money, using it for perks and not working on “getting the economy back to working again”. On the other hand the banks are listing off how they are increasing lending, keeping … Continue reading The flaw in the House Financial Services hearings \ misalignment on the paradigm

Wells Fargo loses touch with reality


The impression that Bank CEO’s live in the stratosphere came from a source I never would have expected today.  Wells Fargo had an ad campaign on the weekend. “The Value of Team Member Recognition,” included a message from the company’s CEO John Stumpf who wrote “many media stories on this subject have been deliberately misleading. These one-sided stories lead you to believe every employee recognition event is a junket, a boondoggle, a waste, or that it’s for highly paid executives. Nonsense!” I have been unequivocally positive and supportive of Wells for years, but this ad campaign has to be the … Continue reading Wells Fargo loses touch with reality

Inflation will follow the recession and the law of untended conseqeunces


Something that has been niggling at me here and here is the law of unintended consequences.  The people architecting the financial stimuli today are first politicians and second relatively young living their maturity post the late 70’s early 80’s. The key statement in this article is at the end, and it was quoted by Geithner today too – that this borrowing is temporary and will be repaid as soon as things are back to normal.  Please stand up if you know: when normal is expected to resume that we will be able to repay the debt at that time?  [ … Continue reading Inflation will follow the recession and the law of untended conseqeunces

Transcript of Geithner remarks | courtesy Bloomberg TV


Here is a transcript of an interview with Geithner on Bloomberg TV following his speech this morning.  MS word file follows. BLOOMBERG TV INTERVIEW WITH SECRETARY TIMOTHY GEITHNER, U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY BY PETER COOK TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 10, 2009 PETER COOK:  Deirdre, thanks very much.  Joined here by the Treasury secretary of the United States, Timothy Geithner, Secretary Geithner, thank you very much for the time.  We appreciate it.  And I know our viewers around the world have been eager to hear about this plan today.  We really appreciate your willingness to sit down and share a few more … Continue reading Transcript of Geithner remarks | courtesy Bloomberg TV