UK Budget 2023 – steady as she goes


2023 budget document Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-budget-2023 Budget 2023: UK economy will avoid recession in 2023 and inflation set to plummet, says chancellor – Sky News OBR fiscal outlook https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2023/#chapter-1 Executive summary 1.1 The economic and fiscal outlook has brightened somewhat since our previous forecast in November. The near-term economic downturn is set to be shorter and shallower; medium-term output to be higher; and the budget deficit and public debt to be lower. But this reverses only part of the costs of the energy crisis, which are being felt on top of larger costs from the pandemic. And persistent supply-side challenges continue … Continue reading UK Budget 2023 – steady as she goes

UPDATE – Credit Suisse being touted with unheard of default on horizon


UPDATE: 2023-03-15 @ 15:55 EST As predicted this morning there had to more to come following the string of denials from Management and investors. In a first for a global bank since 2008 here is latest from Reuters. Reuters: Swiss financial regulator FINMA and the nation’s central bank said on Wednesday that the Swiss National Bank would provide Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) liquidity “if necessary”, a first for a global bank since the financial crisis. Original post A string of denials from Credit Suisse owners, management and investors caught my attention.. The cost to insure against default for the bank has … Continue reading UPDATE – Credit Suisse being touted with unheard of default on horizon

UK budget Mar 15th 2023


Details coming today in the House. FT Jeremy Hunt will on Wednesday announce billions of pounds to boost business investment and measures to bolster Britain’s workforce, including a big expansion in free childcare, in a “Budget for growth”. The chancellor has pledged that business will be the main beneficiary of any tax cuts in his Budget, but he is constrained by a tough fiscal backdrop and a vow to hold down spending to tame inflation. One big area of spending will be a £4bn expansion of free childcare for parents of one and two-year-olds in England, a move intended to … Continue reading UK budget Mar 15th 2023

My Take on The Atlantic Council paper”The Fed’s tightening is a recipe for global volatility”


I am using the headings in the paper as a reference in this analysis: Questions that arise: Conclusion Greater attention is needed in the development of regulations that are https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-feds-tightening-is-a-recipe-for-global-volatility-silicon-valley-banks-collapse-is-just-the-start/?mkt_tok=NjU5LVdaWC0wNzUAAAGKfASwawbes2bcTQaFRJlP-JBpmu0pdmw60bVdBhl6BOk9ZcVN1l2H-1vt5HwfmMVrKOmEnNMkMP7VZktx_C7NBwfIyIl31l2zFRAcWmGQcLra Continue reading My Take on The Atlantic Council paper”The Fed’s tightening is a recipe for global volatility”

Atlantic Council view – SVB is just the start


[] https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-feds-tightening-is-a-recipe-for-global-volatility-silicon-valley-banks-collapse-is-just-the-start/ Monetary policy is said to require about one to two years to have its maximum impact on inflation. … From what is known so far, the cause for SVB’s demise was a classic asset-liability duration mismatch. The bank held a large portfolio of long-term bonds that had lost in market value as interest rates increased over the past year. As word began to spread about its weak financial situation, it did not have enough short-term liquidity to meet customers’ demands for deposit withdrawals. The bank was then forced to sell its assets and realize its losses, which eventually … Continue reading Atlantic Council view – SVB is just the start

Sudden closure of New York’s Signature Bank by state regulators late Sunday


This was a new surprise closure this morning. I believe Signature was a Crypto related closure but will follow that up. ByMax Reyes+Bloomberg 12 March 2023 at 18:22 GMT-4 Updated on13 March 2023 at 01:44 GMT-4 The sudden closure of New York’s Signature Bank by state regulators Sunday underscored the urgency of extraordinary US efforts to backstop the nation’s banking system and quell mounting concerns among customers about the safety of their deposits. Federal regulators swept the lender into receivership just days after the demise of fellow crypto-friendly bank Silvergate Capital Corp. and SVB Financial Group’s Silicon Valley Bank. The … Continue reading Sudden closure of New York’s Signature Bank by state regulators late Sunday

SVB more on US approach


Bloomberg John Authers The deal appears to be as follows: As of the time of writing, there isn’t a buyer for the whole bank. Instead, the Federal Reserve, US Treasury and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation announced in a joint statement that all depositors will have access to their money as of Monday, and that no taxpayers’ money will be used. The statement suggests that any ultimate costs will be borne by other banks through the levy on them for deposit insurance: There will be no protection for holders of bonds or equities in the banks, and the senior management has … Continue reading SVB more on US approach

SVB being covered in UK and US before markets open


I am not sure about the US approach that suggest government is covering 100%. If so that introduces a fresh moral hazard and next Fed rate decision just became tougher. More to come. Summary details courtesy of FT Mon Mar 13, 2023. For full details subscriber access is required. UK HSBC on Monday averted a crisis in Britain’s tech sector by rescuing Silicon Valley Bank’s UK arm, in a dramatic fire sale concluded after all-night talks with British ministers led by Rishi Sunak and the Bank of England. HSBC emerged overnight as the leading white-knight bidder for SVB UK, with … Continue reading SVB being covered in UK and US before markets open