Groupon promise of ability to scale is weak


There has been a fair bit written about the Groupon IPO and while some have touched on it, there is one key point that needs to be made.  I remain sceptical about online advertising and affiliate marketing in terms of long term sustainability, and yet that is the basis of Groupons model, and that they can improve their margins by scale. Groupon is not any kind of testament to whether we are in a dot com bubble or not.  Groupon is a classic case people becoming muddled by large numbers, and I will explain that in a moment.  The others … Continue reading Groupon promise of ability to scale is weak

Derivatives have grown to 10 times world GDP


The problem of derivatives is raised by Mark Mobius of Templeton at a speech in Japan. Mobius: ‘Another financial crisis around the corner’ The total value of derivatives in the world exceeds total global gross domestic product by a factor of 10, said Mobius, who oversees more than $50 billion. With that volume of bets in different directions, volatility and equity market crises will occur, he said. The global financial crisis three years ago was caused in part by the proliferation of derivative products tied to U.S. home loans that ceased performing, triggering hundreds of billions of dollars in writedowns … Continue reading Derivatives have grown to 10 times world GDP

e G8 – Closing conversation with Mark Zuckerberg


This was a revealing conversation and useful in understanding better the focus that FaceBook has gained over the last few years. e G8 – Closing conversation with Mark Zuckerberg (look for closing conversation with Mark).  The interviewer, Maurice Lévy (Chairman & CEO Publicis Groupe) is a bit annoying but you can zip over his attempts at humour. Some key takeaways that I got: Mark is very focussed on what FaceBook is good at and remaining focussed on that He spoke of the company DNA, which reflects his majors Computer Science – Technology Psychology – Human social behaviour online He pointedly … Continue reading e G8 – Closing conversation with Mark Zuckerberg

Detailed analysis of Koobface botnet and its integration with advertising networks


This document noted here contains a detailed description and analysis of the Koobface botnet.  It is run by people in Russia and other countries, and designed to make money.  Koobface is an anagram of Facebook which it levers liberally to encourage clicks and installation of their malware. Courtesy of Infowar-Monitor pdf Koobface The operators of Koobface have been able to setup a stable botnet infrastructure that allows them to maintain tens of thousands of compromised computers and profit immensely from PPC and PPI, earning a total of $2,067,682.69 between June 23, 2009 and June 10, 2010. The document has all … Continue reading Detailed analysis of Koobface botnet and its integration with advertising networks

Injunctions, super-injunctions and internet meet, and it is not pretty


We all take internet for granted.  I worry about where internet will be in the next few years.  The words ‘unintended consequences’ leap off the page on most things we read about regulation or freedom of expression online. On the one hand we have the academic leaders of internet freedom in the US, and the counterpoint is probably the European contingent lead by France and Germany who want to control every cookie it seems. So in concert with the G8, France produced the e-G8 that has some very interesting participants including Eric Schmidt, and Mark Zuckerberg, but also some others … Continue reading Injunctions, super-injunctions and internet meet, and it is not pretty

Google introduction to payments coming Thursday in New York


Payments might just get a little more interesting Thursday when Google promise to introduce a phone based payment method in partnership with MasterCard and Citi. Google to unveil mobile payments Thursday: Google invited reporters to attend a "partner event" on Thursday in New York to demonstrate what it called its "latest innovations." It plans to unveil a mobile payments system that will run on the Android operating system and be available on phones from Sprint Nextel Corp, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday. What could make this interesting is the potential for international coverage.  However the devil will be in the details … Continue reading Google introduction to payments coming Thursday in New York

Post-crisis risk management


I am very interested in the topic of credit risk, and when the offer was made for Dr Jennings to contribute, I readily accepted.  The statistics graph is of particular interest. _________________________________________________________ Dr. Andrew Jennings, chief analytics officer, FICO Guest post for TheBankWatch.com blog The global economic crisis has tested some core beliefs in traditional risk management. We’ve had a real-world stress test, not just of bank portfolios but also of the tools used to manage those portfolios. As our risk-management models came under stress, regulators in the U.S. and numerous other countries changed the rules that govern business practices … Continue reading Post-crisis risk management

NY Attorney General launch inquiry into pooling (derivatives) practices amongst big banks


While banks march on apparently as if nothing happened in 2008 nor the years leading up to it, there continues to be a host of regulatory and investigative work continuing.  The latest is from the New York attorney general office who are pursuing an inquiry into pooling practices, ie, the dreaded derivatives and Asset Backed Commercial Paper in particular. New York Investigates Banks’ Role in Fiscal Crisis | NY Times Officials in Mr. Schneiderman’s office have also requested meetings with representatives from Bank of America,Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, according to people briefed on the matter who were not authorized … Continue reading NY Attorney General launch inquiry into pooling (derivatives) practices amongst big banks

Marketing and technology must work together | Rogers please listen


Customer service and marketing can easily get out of sync with each other.  We were trying to sign up for a movie tonight on Rogers and the service kept crashing.  I phoned the technical support group, and got the usual suggestion from the CSR to reboot the box.  However when digging deeper with him he readily admitted that the Rogers service had capacity issues and had had service issues for the last several months.  The frustrating part of that conversation is that he knew why we had a problem before we began but the company still made him put us … Continue reading Marketing and technology must work together | Rogers please listen

Background to the ING Direct story and the rumours of Ally Bank interest


I missed the rumour that Ally Bank is in talks with ING Direct.  It was put out there first by the NY Post on 10th May, 2011. Sources told The Post that Ally, the automobile and home mortgage lender, is looking to acquire the online banking business to boost its deposit base and further fortify the lending giant, which accepted a taxpayer handout during the height of the financial crisis. ING Direct could fetch as much as $10 billion in a sale, according to source This follows the EU Commission requirement that ING in Holland divest its insurance business following … Continue reading Background to the ING Direct story and the rumours of Ally Bank interest