The effect of psychology on investing behaviour


This is a fascinating summary and review of various factors that drive investment behaviour, and surprisingly few of which have anything to do with rational investment return.  Homo economicus – or more like Homer Simpson? Deutsche Bank Research Many of the issues listed here may seem obvious. But in an environment like economics and finance, precisely because it is perceived as being so highly rational, the influence of psychological factors and sentiment is frequently underestimated. Of course, heeding these points – arguably not always such an easy matter in practice – will not automatically guarantee the success of an investment. … Continue reading The effect of psychology on investing behaviour

Few banks are going to market to raise capital


This is a bit of a surprise with all directions pointing to increased capital requirements. 33% of banks have gone to the market to raise capital or will go to market to raise capital | Grant Thornton CHICAGO, June 24, 2010 – According to Grant Thornton LLP’s 17th Bank Executive Survey, conducted in conjunction with Bank Director magazine, one-third (33%) of bankers said that their bank was very likely to go the market to raise capital in the next 12 months (22%) or has already successfully gone to the market to raise capital (11%). Technorati Tags: banks,capital,regulation,grant thornton Continue reading Few banks are going to market to raise capital

Chrystia Freeland interviews Larry Summers


For economic wonks here is a lengthy and broad interview this morning with Larry Summers. He paints a positive picture that America has turned the corner, is producing jobs, and progressing well.  On the question of stimulus versus consolidation, he makes the point that a country with growth has a greater chance of being in control of its own destiny.  He notes that non growth countries find it very hard to maintain a positive financial picture (alluding to Japan). He talks specifically about the origins of G20 and how he and Paul Martin were the originals in setting that up. … Continue reading Chrystia Freeland interviews Larry Summers

Why the economy and the G20 matters for banks


Gillian Tett at FT highlights the seismic shift that has taken place in the securitization market.  This may appear obscure but it directly impacts product design and bank product design. Collapsed debt market poses dilemma for G20 | Financial Times So far, few non-bankers have really noticed this collapse, largely because governments have stepped into the breach, papering over the gaping hole. In the US, for example, the Federal Reserve has bought $1,250bn of mortgage-backed securities. In Europe, the Bank of England and ECB have gobbled up mortgage-backed bonds, and other securitised assets, via repo deals. Before 2007, eurozone banks … Continue reading Why the economy and the G20 matters for banks

Dr. Inge Kaul on effective global resource allocation


To wind up, a smart and interesting speaker on a panel moderated by Chrystia Freeland.  Dr. Inge Kaul Member, Committee of Experts, Leading Group on Innovative Financing for Development; Professor, Hertie School of Governance, Berlin, Germany Notes on her talk. State failures have made it very easy for markets to fail.  She speaks about public goods and how everyone wants everything, but no-one wants to pay.  Free-riding, and this applies to countries as well.  This helps us to understand why G20 talks but accomplishes little. Leaders should set agenda – we need a Gxx for each global challenge, eg climate … Continue reading Dr. Inge Kaul on effective global resource allocation

G20 and the UN


Live from “Making the Case for Global Economic Governance”, a Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung and Munk School of Global Affairs sponsored pre G20 conference here in Toronto. Speaking now is Jomo Kwame Sundaram, Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, and facilitated by Chrystia Freeland, Global Editor at Large, Thompson Reuters.  His role is the link on economic affairs between the G20 and the UN.  [Note Paul Martin remains in the audience listening.] Broadly he is making the case that the thing to be feared is deflation, and that the amount of stimulus that has occurred is … Continue reading G20 and the UN

Global Governance – Canadian perspective – Paul Martin


I am live blogging from the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung/ Munk Centre/ University of Toronto conference on Global Economic Governance.  The keynote speaker is Paul Martin (PM) who is up next.  Introductions first from Werner Puschra, Director, Friedrich Ebert Foundation, New York Office and John Kirton, Professor, International Relations Programme, G20 Research Group, Munk School of Global Affairs, University of Toronto.  Basically Martin a former PM of Canada is being introduced as the ‘father’ of G20. Notes on Martin begin here: Global governance requires a global steering committee covering these issues. breadth of issues priority results ability to reach out to … Continue reading Global Governance – Canadian perspective – Paul Martin

Commercial Real Estate vacancies rise significantly in US


As predicted by several folks 2 years ago the next shoe to fall, Commercial Real Estate is underway in the US.  Expect to see boarded up vacancies in malls again as we did 20 years ago. Commercial Real Estate Time Bomb Slowly Exploding | Kimberly’s US Economy Blog The mortgage delinquency rate for commercial real estate (apartments, retail, office and manufacturing) continues to worsen. According to Real Capital Analytics,  4.17% of loans defaulted in the first quarter of 2010. This is $45.5 billion in bank-held loans. It is higher than both the 3.83% rate in the fourth quarter of 2009 … Continue reading Commercial Real Estate vacancies rise significantly in US

TD loses it


Thanks to the Financial Brand and Ron for this.  They had a good thing going with the green chair and the old guys.  Now this out of the blue green.  Words fail me.  Maybe Ron made this up? A press conference staged for the introduction of “TD,” the bank’s new mascot. If there were indeed that many reporters at the event with their hands raised anxiously, the number one question was likely to be, “What the heck is it?” Technorati Tags: TD Continue reading TD loses it