How far has the economy really come since 2008?


This rather complicated image from here is actually quite telling if you take a minute to study.  The black line is the supposed normal long run level for each indicator.  The red line indicates when QE began in 2009, and the blue is where we are today. In summary not much has changed and despite the month to month improvements, the relative improvement to where we were prior to 2008 is immense. Continue reading How far has the economy really come since 2008?

Who is your Edward Snowden?


The story of Edward Snowden is becoming more interesting than the message he has brought.  He has been a spy all his adult life and he has been with Booz Allen for 2 months~.  Further he is 29 years old suggesting a career span of 10 – 11 years max.  The dichotomy of this apparently intelligent young man lies in the range between delusions of grandeur and deep experience with the shadow world of espionage. The personal history of Snowden will become a large part of this increasingly fascinating story.  Booz Allen Statement on Reports of Leaked Information Booz Allen … Continue reading Who is your Edward Snowden?

To the Guardian – why PRISM? ECHELON has been around since 1948 supported by US, UK, Canada, Australia


It is not at all clear to me why everyone is so excited about PRISM and the apparently new ability to monitor private communications that the Guardian got all excited about last week.  It took me a day or two to remember the name, but I have this piece (below) from 2003 which documents ECHELON which has been around since 1948.  PRISM reads like an extension/ subset/ addition to ECHELON. For the record I am not afraid of this kind of thing.  Indeed we can’t on the one hand be happy to throw everything personal out there, and the on … Continue reading To the Guardian – why PRISM? ECHELON has been around since 1948 supported by US, UK, Canada, Australia

Chip card implementation remains fundamentally flawed


Sometimes when I read the debates on chip, PIN and EMV I feel I am listening to the Flat Earth Society.  America is home to some home truths including gun ownership, religion and mag stripe in ways that just seem contradictory to common sense. That said, when it comes to chip there are aspects that payment security adherents are probably not addressing in sufficient clarity otherwise one would think logical thinking people would come around even if they are American.  (I love America by the way) So what is the issue ?  Why is it so hard to make the … Continue reading Chip card implementation remains fundamentally flawed

World Retail Banking Report 2013 | CapGemini / EFMA


The new CapGemini/ Efma World Retail Banking report is out today. This is the 3rd annual.  A link to the full report, press release and infographic can be found here.  Its 40 pages and worth the study for anyone in bank channel strategy and management. Paris, New York – April 23, 2013 –  Within the next six months, ten percent of retail banking customers surveyed globally will likely leave their bank and an additional 41 percent of customers say they are unsure if they will stay or go finds the tenth annual World Retail Banking Report 2013 (WRBR 2013) released … Continue reading World Retail Banking Report 2013 | CapGemini / EFMA

“This Time is Different” comes under fire from Amherst professors | what does it mean for austerity?


It is not unusual to have economists debate how to manage inflation, growth, and employment.  The solutions vary from extreme Keynes supported by Government spending, to extreme austerity and we have seen all of those especially since 2008. A guiding light of clarity that appeared in 2010 was the Reindhart/ Rogoff book entitled ‘This Time is Different”.  The title implied with irony that in fact it is never different, and that it went on to empirically prove that over 800years of data it is proven that countries with excess debt suffer low or negative growth.  I have quoted the book … Continue reading “This Time is Different” comes under fire from Amherst professors | what does it mean for austerity?

Finally a North American smart use of QR code


The functionality of linking the QR code to streamline bill payment is a smart idea.  QR codes have become the de rigeur addition to all marketing materials in North America, but they are functionally useless.  I have written about this before. The original use of QR in Japan by marketers was tied to specific offers and coupons for restaurants and the like.  There was a point.  Meanwhile in North American the codes generally link to a marketing page or a home page.  Back to the BillTrust idea.  By tying the QR code to a useful function that bypasses clicks will … Continue reading Finally a North American smart use of QR code

Bank holdup EU style


This pic is all over Europe this morning.  With the introduction of a tax on deposits in Cyprus the EU opens a new floodgate and introduces a question about deposit insurance.  There are no exempt deposits in this tax, so even a deposit balance of 100 Euros will be 6.75~ euros lighter this morning. As discussed by Wolfgang Münchau here this introduces the underpinnings of a classic bank run.  Deposit insurance is intended to remove risk of loss of average depositors up to a preset limit.  The 2008 crisis effectively removed that preset limit by guaranteeing everyone.  It was obvious to most that is not … Continue reading Bank holdup EU style

Listen to Marissa Mayer | technology and workplace practices have not been properly thought through


A lot has been said on mainstream media about Mayers decision at Yahoo to eliminate working from home as a regular term of employment.  The standard media line goes something like ‘Yahoo does not get it’ and ‘this is counter directional to the direction technology companys are supposed to be going’. Even Richard Branson chipped in saying he would never work from an office. The two themes that leap out are: technology produces the capability to work from home, and working from home is empowering by allowing employees to operate on their schedule, banishing commuting, and commitment to the schedules … Continue reading Listen to Marissa Mayer | technology and workplace practices have not been properly thought through

LIBOR fines could hit $22 bn


I wrote in July 2012 that “Libor is the Catalyst of the next banking crisis” and while that unfortunate prediction is coming true the fines suggest it will be basically shoved under the rug.  Rate-fixing scandal shakes three continents | ft.com The fallout from the interest rate manipulation scandal hit three continents on Wednesday as Royal Bank of Scotland paid £390m ($612m) and admitted criminal price-fixing charges over Libor-rigging. A series of lurid emails cited in the settlement laid bare a culture where employees would readily alter rates in exchange for steak dinners. So far LIBOR fines have been relatively … Continue reading LIBOR fines could hit $22 bn