Introduction Today’s environment is dominated by ritual and interregnum: Tehran opens the largest state funeral in the Islamic Republic’s history while the man it is meant to legitimise stays hidden, and Washington pauses the Iran talks for the week. The secondary cluster is European — Kyiv absorbing its third-deadliest attack of the war days before the Ankara NATO summit. Risk is concentrated in transition mechanics: Iranian succession, the 60-day MoU clock, and Venezuela’s expiring mandate all hinge on processes rather than events. ⸻1. What changed ⚑ Khamenei funeral opens; successor Mojtaba stays invisibleTehran began a seven-day funeral for Ali Khamenei, … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Saturday, July 4, 2026 · 9:07 AM EST · ~1,250 words⸻

Introduction The dominant theme today is institutional unwinding under managed tension: Iran opens a week of funeral rites for Khamenei under explicit threat of attack, Washington has let the USMCA renewal lapse, and OpenAI is proposing formal state equity in the AI sector. Risk is clustering around the July 7–9 window — Khamenei’s Tehran procession Monday, the NATO Ankara summit Tuesday–Wednesday, and burial in Mashhad Thursday. US markets are closed today for the July 4 holiday, with a soft June jobs report as the last data point of the week. 1. What changed Iran begins Khamenei funeral week under IRGC … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Friday, July 3, 2026 · 8:30 AM EST · ~1,150 words

Introduction Two stories dominate: Russia’s largest strike on Kyiv in months, hours after Zelensky publicly warned it was coming, and Washington’s formal refusal to renew USMCA — a decision with direct consequences for Canada. The broader pattern today is institutional unwinding: a trade architecture entering managed decline, a US-Iran deal holding but fraying at the technical level, and Europe confronting the gap between rearmament spending and actual delivery ahead of next week’s NATO summit in Ankara. Markets are quiet ahead of this morning’s US jobs report in a holiday-shortened week. 1. What changed Russia hits Kyiv with ~500 drones and … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Thursday, July 2, 2026 · 8:15 AM EST · ~1,180 words

Introduction The day is dominated by a single brittle thread: the US and Iran are due to sit down in Doha today even as Tehran publicly denies the meeting was ever agreed, days after weekend strikes nearly collapsed the Hormuz ceasefire. Risk clusters around energy and the Gulf, but markets are leaning the other way — Wall Street closed at record highs on Monday, treating de-escalation as the base case. The distinct feature today is the gap between diplomatic fragility and market complacency, with a quarter-end tech rebound papering over an inflation print above 4% and rising talk of a … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Tuesday, 30 June 2026 · 07:53 EDT · ~1,180 words⸻

Introduction The day is dominated by a single widening fracture: the Islamabad Memorandum that was meant to end the Iran war is visibly coming apart, with a weekend of US–Iran strikes, Iranian drone and missile attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait, and Tehran threatening a “complete halt” to talks. The notable feature today is the gap between battlefield escalation and market calm — oil actually firmed only modestly and equities are steady, even as the Gulf takes direct fire. Risk is clustering around the Strait of Hormuz and the Doha coordination channel, with a US–Iran technical meeting reportedly due Tuesday that … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Monday, June 29, 2026 · 08:15 EST · 1,100 words

Introduction The dominant theme today is divergence: the diplomatic track and the kinetic track are moving in opposite directions at once. Twelve days after Washington and Tehran signed a 60-day memorandum, the US struck Iranian targets again Saturday night, Iran put a drone into a residential building in Bahrain overnight, and yet a separate Israel–Lebanon framework was signed Friday in Washington — while oil posted its worst week in a month as Strait of Hormuz traffic recovered. Markets are pricing de-escalation; the wires are reporting strikes. Add a Venezuelan earthquake toll now past 1,400 and a record Micron print reshaping … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Sunday, 28 June 2026 · 10:33 EDT · ~1,180 words⸻