OSFI (Canada) increases pace of Bank Regulation following SVB collapse


The Canada banking regulator (OSFI) is increasing the pace of reporting required of Banks. Here follows notes on a few items of note related to increasing risk pre and post SVB. OSFI increases monitoring to daily Globe and Mail Canada’s regulator is taking extra precautions. OSFI has told banks that, starting as early as Tuesday and until further notice, they will be required to send the regulator liquidity reports each day through an existing monitoring tool that tracks banks’ financial positions, the two sources said. The added monitoring is not a sign of imminent concern, they said, but it is … Continue reading OSFI (Canada) increases pace of Bank Regulation following SVB collapse

What I am watching 2023-03-24


OSFI to start daily monitoring of Canadian banks’ liquidity in wake of SVB failure. Globe and Mail. Bundesbank chief says rate-setters must be ‘more stubborn’ in inflation fight. FT Financial turmoil complicates central banks’ focus on inflation FT What to Know Ahead of the Fed’s Interest-Rate Decision Bloomberg All eyes in the financial and economic world will be laser-focused Wednesday on the Federal Reserve as Chair Jerome Powell tries to balance his fight against inflation against a sudden banking crisis. RBC tells employees to return to the office three or four days a week TikTok caught in US-China battle over … Continue reading What I am watching 2023-03-24

Are Banks showing Stress from the Commercial Real Estate Market?


Commercial Real Estate This is a topic I have been wondering about and the potential impact on the greater economy and Bank Balance Sheets in particular. This Bloomberg podcast caught my attention. It is short on deep detail but does provide a high level overview. Only US market addressed here. Market size US $ 20 Trillion +/-. Office Space. Residential units. Shopping Malls. NE primarily Manhattan Sunshine belt – mainly Florida SW mainly Texas, Austin, Dallas, Houston Main takeaways LTV (Loan to Value) CRE generally exhibits low LTV of 30% on average with pockets of higher risk. Holders of CRE … Continue reading Are Banks showing Stress from the Commercial Real Estate Market?

IPCC SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT (AR6)


Summary for Policymakers. INTERLAKEN, Switzerland, March 20, 2023 — There are multiple, feasible and effective options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to human-caused climate change, and they are available now, said scientists in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report released today. Aditi Mukherji, one of the 93 authors of this Synthesis Report “Almost half of the world’s population lives in regions that are highly vulnerable to climate change. In the last decade, deaths from floods, droughts and storms were 15 times higher in highly vulnerable regions,“ she added The Summary Report IPCC AR6 UN released … Continue reading IPCC SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT (AR6)

Weekend Read: SVB exposes a significant carry trade problem – follow up


As I mentioned in last post, I have been drilling down on a few themes that look at potential root cause for the bank failures of banks this week: Introduction Here are the bank failures as of Mar 17th that I am aware of SVB Signature Credit Suisse First Republic Silvergate Failures have been all American but with offices in Canada, UK and Japan for now. The government response has largely been focussed on solving each failure with a refusal to acknowledge system risk to banking.JP Morgan have featured in US solutions, HSB in Britain and UBS in Switzerland. The … Continue reading Weekend Read: SVB exposes a significant carry trade problem – follow up

SVB exposes a significant carry trade problem


This is the consequence of the Fed having left monetary policy too loose for too long Gillian writes an excellent piece that adds colour to the root cause discussion on SVB. It captures a thought process set of risks not addressed by Dodd-Frank, OSFI or British regulation which all more broadly focus on discrete individual FI’s and less the systemic risks in the market that few want to touch. Already I sense the market participants are glossing over the crisis and suggesting it is contained. I disagree and am doing my own analysis to test that hypothesis. It is time … Continue reading SVB exposes a significant carry trade problem

UK Budget 2023 – steady as she goes


2023 budget document Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-budget-2023 Budget 2023: UK economy will avoid recession in 2023 and inflation set to plummet, says chancellor – Sky News OBR fiscal outlook https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2023/#chapter-1 Executive summary 1.1 The economic and fiscal outlook has brightened somewhat since our previous forecast in November. The near-term economic downturn is set to be shorter and shallower; medium-term output to be higher; and the budget deficit and public debt to be lower. But this reverses only part of the costs of the energy crisis, which are being felt on top of larger costs from the pandemic. And persistent supply-side challenges continue … Continue reading UK Budget 2023 – steady as she goes

UPDATE – Credit Suisse being touted with unheard of default on horizon


UPDATE: 2023-03-15 @ 15:55 EST As predicted this morning there had to more to come following the string of denials from Management and investors. In a first for a global bank since 2008 here is latest from Reuters. Reuters: Swiss financial regulator FINMA and the nation’s central bank said on Wednesday that the Swiss National Bank would provide Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) liquidity “if necessary”, a first for a global bank since the financial crisis. Original post A string of denials from Credit Suisse owners, management and investors caught my attention.. The cost to insure against default for the bank has … Continue reading UPDATE – Credit Suisse being touted with unheard of default on horizon