Inflation or no inflaton coming | Econobrowser


James at Econobrowser always offers insightful views on the economy. This post deals with the prospect for the current hot topic, of inflation or not. My read is that earlier inflation is the more likely prospect, given sectoral imbalances are more likely than not. Will stimulating nominal aggregate demand solve our problems? My personal view is that real-world unemployment arises from the interaction of sectoral imbalances with frictions in the wage and price structure of the sort documented by Truman Bewley and Alan Blinder. The key empirical test, in my opinion, is at what point inflationary pressures begin to pick … Continue reading Inflation or no inflaton coming | Econobrowser

Getting back to normal economic growth | we have it all wrong!


These two headlines tonight following the bank bailout and the auto bailout serve to validate my new view.  We are not going back to where we were.  Yet all activities of the governments’ to date are premised on the notion that after this hickup we will return to 1-2% annual growth in GDP reasonable interest rates, and increasing home prices. Who believes that now?  Where is the pragmatic thinking that plans for GDP at a fraction of what it was in 2007 ?  Where are the scenario plans for GDP at 75% and 50% of 2007 levels.  Such plans would … Continue reading Getting back to normal economic growth | we have it all wrong!