A contrarian view on Iran.

Iran could be the next big global investment opportunity — if and when the war ends, Adm. James Stavridis, the former supreme allied commander of NATO who is now vice chairman at investment firm Carlyle, told Semafor’s Liz Hoffman. “If we’re allowed to have a tiny flicker of good news, we just had it,” he said after Trump announced a five-day stay of his threats to attack Iran’s electric grid, which provoked Iran to vow to strike Middle East energy and water infrastructure. Despite the ongoing military buildup in the region, Stavridis sees two-in-three odds of a negotiated peace that would reopen the oil trade and “avoid cratering the global economy.” Longer-term, he sees regime change from within, which would make Iran an enticing draw for global investors; he compared the outlook for Iran to the reconstruction of South Korea after the 1950s war.