Category: Geopolitics

EU, Europe, Geopolitics, USLeave a comment

Pentagon transfers leadership of Ukraine assistance mission in Germany to another NATO member – Politico

Colin Henderson

Khrystyna Bondarieva ,  Roman Petrenko  — 1 August, 12:08 The Pentagon is stepping down from leading the Security Assistance Group-Ukraine (SAG-U), based in Germany, and will hand it over to another NATO member state. Source: Politico; European Pravda Details: According to a US official and three people familiar with the plan, command of SAG-U – which has played a central role in equipping and training Ukrainian troops since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion – will ultimately be taken over by another NATO member. This move means the US will no longer help shape what Ukraine’s future armed forces will look like. Advertisement: … Continue reading Pentagon transfers leadership of Ukraine assistance mission in Germany to another NATO member – Politico

Geopolitics, Middle East, SaudiLeave a comment

Why the Saudis Attacked Iraq Despite Cordial Ties

Colin Henderson

 Source Bloomberg ​ Lisa BeyerJuly 29, 2026 at 2:42 PM EDTA general view of damaged structures at the site of a strike in Bartalla in the northern Iraqi Nineveh province on July 29.Photographer: Zaid Al-Obeidi/AFP/Getty Images A new line of fighting in the war in the Middle East opened up on July 28 when Saudi Arabia launched an attack on Iraq, with which the kingdom has generally cordial relations. The strike, carried out in conjunction with US forces, targeted Iranian-backed militants in Iraq who, the Saudis said, had fired drones at Saudi oil facilities two days in a row.  Who are the Iraqi … Continue reading Why the Saudis Attacked Iraq Despite Cordial Ties

Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Russia, USLeave a comment

The Self-Destruction of American Power

Colin Henderson

  Fareed Zakaria July/August 2019 Published on June 11, 2019 ​ Washington Squandered the Unipolar Moment Sometime in the last two years, American hegemony died. The age of U.S. dominance was a brief, heady era, about three decades marked by two moments, each a breakdown of sorts. It was born amid the collapse of the Berlin Wall, in 1989. The end, or really the beginning of the end, was another collapse, that of Iraq in 2003, and the slow unraveling since. But was the death of the United States’ extraordinary status a result of external causes, or did Washington accelerate its own demise through … Continue reading The Self-Destruction of American Power

Geopolitics, South America, USLeave a comment

Why the two Americas diverged

Colin Henderson

A combination of blood, faith, character and luck drove development in North and South America at a staggeringly different pace, resulting in today’s bifurcated hemisphere.ANTHONY DEPALMAJULY 3, 2026 On the same September morning that terrorists slammed hijacked airliners into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, the foreign ministers of 34 North, Central and South American nations had gathered in Lima, Peru, to sign the Inter-American Democratic Charter. The Charter was considered a critical step towards forming a Free Trade Area of the Americas that would usher in unprecedented economic progress for the entire region and narrow the yawning development … Continue reading Why the two Americas diverged

Diplomacy, Geopolitics, iran, Israel, Nuclear, US

Morning Briefing — Wednesday, 17 June 2026 · EST Morning · ~1,600 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s news environment is dominated by the final hours of the G7 Évian summit — a three-day gathering that ended more consequentially than most expected. The US-Iran MOU is the organising frame: it produced G7 endorsement, an Israeli domestic crisis, an oil market shift, and a live debate about the $300 billion reconstruction fund’s terms. Alongside this, Ukraine struck Moscow’s largest oil refinery during the summit itself, and the summit’s final session on AI governance brought frontier lab CEOs into a formal political forum for the first time. The day’s risk cluster is the 60-day window before Iran MOU becomes … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Wednesday, 17 June 2026 · EST Morning · ~1,600 words

Diplomacy, Frontier_AI, Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Tuesday, 16 June 2026 · 10:35 EST · ~1,150 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by a single structural event: the US–Iran MOU signed Friday in Geneva, which is simultaneously reshaping energy markets, the Ukraine file, and the US–Israel relationship. The G7 in Évian is running as a live diplomatic clearinghouse for all three threads. The secondary story — an Ebola PHEIC in DRC — deserves monitoring as a slow-burn humanitarian and institutional stress signal largely overshadowed by the Middle East. 1. Top Stories — What Changed 1. US–Iran MOU: Markets price relief, details still opaqueAn interim peace framework between Washington and Tehran — brokered with Pakistan as mediator — was … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Tuesday, 16 June 2026 · 10:35 EST · ~1,150 words

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Monday, June 15, 2026 · 09:14 EST · ~1,250 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s news environment is dominated by a single civilisational-scale development: the US and Iran have announced a framework agreement ending the 3.5-month-old war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The G7 opens in Évian simultaneously, absorbing the deal’s implications. Secondary threads — Russia’s escalating aerial campaign against Ukraine, Netanyahu’s political isolation, and the EU AI Act’s final sprint toward August 2 full applicability — are all being reframed by the Hormuz development. This is a rare day where one story restructures everything else. 1. Top Stories — What Changed ⚑ US-Iran Framework Deal Announced — Hormuz Set to ReopenTrump declared … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Monday, June 15, 2026 · 09:14 EST · ~1,250 words

Geopolitics, iran, US

Morning Briefing — Sunday, 14 June 2026 · 08:32 EST · ~1,250 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s briefing is dominated by a single hinge event: the US-Iran MOU appears to be hours away from signature — or collapse. Everything else in this edition either feeds into that outcome or represents a structural shift accelerated by the broader conflict environment. The secondary story of real consequence is the US government’s overnight export-control order forcing Anthropic to pull its frontier models globally — a move that lands as a direct shot across Europe’s bow on AI sovereignty. Globally, the FIFA World Cup is in full swing as backdrop; markets are suspended for the weekend with oil hovering around … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Sunday, 14 June 2026 · 08:32 EST · ~1,250 words

Diplomacy, Europe, Geopolitics, iran, US

Morning Briefing — Saturday, 13 June 2026 · 09:09 EST · ~1,200 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s briefing is dominated by a single near-inflection: the US-Iran deal text reportedly agreed on June 12, with a signing window framed around the G7 in France next week. That headline crowds almost everything else, but three significant sub-stories run alongside it — Lebanon’s ground war deteriorating despite deal momentum, FISA 702 lapsing after a House Democratic bloc vote, and SpaceX completing the largest IPO in history and beginning to trade. The overall tone is one of compressed contingency: several major things could resolve or unravel simultaneously within the next 72 hours. 1. What Changed ⚑ US-Iran draft deal text … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Saturday, 13 June 2026 · 09:09 EST · ~1,200 words

Diplomacy, Europe, Geopolitics, iran, US

Morning Briefing — Friday, June 12, 2026 · Morning EST · ~1,250 words⸻

Colin Henderson

Introduction One story dominates and bends everything else around it: Trump’s announcement late Thursday that a US–Iran “settlement” has been reached, with signing possible this weekend — even as Tehran publicly disputes that any text has been approved. Oil, inflation expectations, Israeli politics, and Gulf diplomacy are all repricing off that single claim. The distinct feature of today’s environment is the gap between Washington’s declared certainty and Tehran’s declared non-participation; one of those positions will collapse within days. Beneath it, US–China tech decoupling deepened materially this week regardless of the Middle East outcome. ⸻ 1. What changed Trump cancels strikes, … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Friday, June 12, 2026 · Morning EST · ~1,250 words⸻