Category: US

China, Diplomacy, USLeave a comment
Colin Henderson

The Real Role of a Trump-Xi Meeting” — The Diplomat, published ~May 1, 2026Argues the summit’s value is not in breakthroughs but in establishing boundaries under pressure — “managed competition.” Covers Beijing’s pre-summit moves (Announcement No. 21, rare earth leverage), US accusations of Chinese AI IP extraction, and why the Taiwan question remains China’s priority. Worth reading because it frames the May 14 summit correctly: not a reset, but a signalling exercise with Xi holding the stronger hand.The Diplomat The Real Role of a Trump-Xi Meeting The summit is unlikely to deliver decisive breakthroughs. Instead, its importance lies in how … Continue reading

AI, Business Models, Canada, EU, Geopolitics, NATO, unbanked, USLeave a comment

Morning Briefing — Tuesday, April 14, 2026 · 07:51 EST · 1,285 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by a single cascading event: the US naval blockade of Iranian ports that took effect at 10:00 AM EDT Monday, immediately after the collapse of the Islamabad ceasefire talks. The blockade has set off simultaneous shocks across energy markets, NATO unity, and Gulf security. A partial relief signal arrived this morning — Trump says Iran has “called” and wants a deal — creating a whipsaw between escalation and diplomatic revival that will define the day’s market and political moves. Hungary’s watershed election result, landing Sunday, adds a structurally significant European political shift to the mix. 1. … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Tuesday, April 14, 2026 · 07:51 EST · 1,285 words

Economy, EU, Geopolitics, IMF, UK, USLeave a comment

UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL IMBALANCES

Colin Henderson

#IMF March 3, 2026 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY After more than a decade of steady decline, global imbalances have widened in they reflect economic fundamentals and desirable policies, the buildup and persistence recent years. While current account surpluses and deficits can be appropriate when of large imbalances raise concerns when they are driven by policy distortions and unwind in a disorderly manner. The expansion of industrial policies and the rise in trade restrictions—often motivated by imbalances themselves—has intensified the debate on the causes and consequences of global imbalances, despite limited analytical and empirical clarity on how both policies affect the current account. … Continue reading UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL IMBALANCES

Business Models, China, Economics, EU, Geopolitics, USLeave a comment

Iran Offers Europe a Hormuz Lifeline — and the Price Could Be the Dollar

Colin Henderson

“Iran Offers Europe a Hormuz Lifeline — and the Price Could Be the Dollar” — IBTimes UK, April 4, 2026 https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/iran-strait-hormuz-transit-negotiations-1790190 Worth reading because it connects the immediate Hormuz transit negotiation to the structural BRICS-dollar question: non-dollar energy settlement mechanisms, the US national debt crossing $39 trillion mid-war, and the emerging pattern of European nations negotiating separately with Iran. One of the cleaner structural pieces published this week amid a lot of operational noise. ———————————————- Iran’s proposal to negotiate transit access through the Strait of Hormuz could reshape global energy dynamics and challenge the petrodollar system. Bernadette B. TixonPublished 04 April … Continue reading Iran Offers Europe a Hormuz Lifeline — and the Price Could Be the Dollar

banking, Regulations, US

A New Wave of Bank Mergers Is Just Getting Started

Colin Henderson

Rebecca Ungarino President Donald Trump’s looser financial regulation has helped send bank mergers to a four-year high—and more are on their way. Risks and opportunities abound. Look no further than Comerica, the 34th-largest U.S. lender. It began life as the Detroit Savings Fund Institute, an early provider of savings accounts for customers who enjoyed a perk that was novel in the 1840s: earning interest on deposits. Over time, the firm combined with competitors, rebranded, and moved its headquarters to Dallas. These days, ComericaCMA+1.44%—the product of decades of mergers and centuries of reinvention—finds itself at a critical juncture in what could be the … Continue reading A New Wave of Bank Mergers Is Just Getting Started

Economy, Growth, US

Monetary Policy 5 Yr Fed Framework Review

Colin Henderson

August 22, 2025 Chair Jerome H. Powell At “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy,” an economic symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, WyomingWatch Live Over the course of this year, the U.S. economy has shown resilience in a context of sweeping changes in economic policy. In terms of the Fed’s dual-mandate goals, the labor market remains near maximum employment, and inflation, though still somewhat elevated, has come down a great deal from its post-pandemic highs. At the same time, the balance of risks appears to be shifting. In my remarks today, … Continue reading Monetary Policy 5 Yr Fed Framework Review

Canada, Risk, US1 Comment

Financial Accountability Officer is an Officer of the Legistlative Assembly of Ontario

Colin Henderson

The Potential Impacts of US Tariffs on the Ontario Economy SummaryThis report examines Ontario’s trade relationship with the United States and estimates the potential impacts of US tariffs on Ontario’s exports, imports, GDP, employment and inflation.The United States is Ontario’s most important trading partnerThe US accounts for most of Ontario’s international trade, with 77 per cent of Ontario’s total goods exports and 60 per cent of the province’s total services exports. Imports of goods from the US accounted for 68 per cent of Ontario’s total goods imports, while services imports from the US were 63 per cent of total services … Continue reading Financial Accountability Officer is an Officer of the Legistlative Assembly of Ontario

Economics, Economy, Geopolitics, US

US foreign trade barriers (linked 400 pages~)

Colin Henderson

US administration issued a rambling document with a multitude of ‘trade barriers’. “Where sufficient data exist, an approximate impact of tariffs on U.S. exports can be derived by obtaining estimates of supply and demand price elasticities in the importing country and in the United States. Typically, the U.S. share of imports is assumed constant. When no calculated price elasticities are available, reasonable postulated values are used. The resulting estimate of lost U.S. exports is approximate, depends on the assumed elasticities, and does not necessarily reflect changes in trade patterns with third countries. Similar procedures are followed to estimate the impact … Continue reading US foreign trade barriers (linked 400 pages~)