Category: intel

intel, Military, USLeave a comment

US officials push back on reports of dangerously low munitions supplies

Colin Henderson

 Summarize ​ Experts warn that low stockpiles of air defence interceptors as a result of the war on Iran leave the US vulnerable. Joseph Stepansky The White House and Pentagon have pushed back on a slate of recent reports indicating that supplies of both offensive and defensive weapons have dropped dangerously low after five months of war on Iran. Experts have said that low supplies of air defence interceptors, particularly those used in Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) air defence systems, may pose a particular threat to US forces, with knock-on effects for allies in the region and beyond. … Continue reading US officials push back on reports of dangerously low munitions supplies

intel, iran, Israel, Military, NATO, Nuclear, Russia

Likelihood of world war is now a risk – ref “The Coming Storm“ Westad and parallels to 1912

Colin Henderson

Currently state analysis in context of potential for regional or World War. Examples: Note introduction of Bolivia as a direct and unpredicted new thread, along side Russia /China relations actively managed by China which could lead Putin to move asynchronously. ANALYSIS Prompt We appear to be in a high risk of a regional or even world war. Breakdowns in diplomacy now exist : Russia / china, us/ Israel, us/china, Iran/ Saudi, UAE,, quatar. Yemen remains a wild card. Output The risk architecture is real but worth disaggregating — not all breakdowns are equal, and some of the apparent fractures are … Continue reading Likelihood of world war is now a risk – ref “The Coming Storm“ Westad and parallels to 1912

EU, intel

EU Pledges Technical and Financial Aid to Restore Druzhba Pipeline

Colin Henderson

Wed, 03/18/2026 – 08:01https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/eu-pledges-technical-and-financial-aid-restore-druzhba-pipelineEuropean Union leaders announced Tuesday that the bloc will provide technical and financial assistance to Ukraine to help restore oil flow through a section of the Druzhba pipeline running through Ukraine. Oil shipments through the pipeline were halted following a series of Russian missile strikes on the critical energy infrastructure in January, severing crude oil supplies to Hungary and Slovakia. In a joint statement, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel condemned the Jan. 27 attacks, which hit key nodes of the transit network. The disruption has left Central European nations … Continue reading EU Pledges Technical and Financial Aid to Restore Druzhba Pipeline

China, intel, Military, Russia

The war of signals: How Russia and China help Iran see the battlefield

Colin Henderson

Electronic warfare and intelligence sharing are eroding decades of US-Israeli dominance in the Gulf. Jasim Al-Azzawi Al Jazeera Opinion, 12 March 2026Best available structural read on how Russia’s Khayyam satellite imagery pipeline and China’s BeiDou-3 integration have collectively reshaped Iran’s kill chain — and why “coordinates are now more valuable than bullets” in the current conflict. Essential context for the BeiDou thread now elevated to standalone status. ——————————- When three senior American officials told The Washington Post that Russia was providing Iran with sensitive intelligence, including the precise locations of US warships and aircraft operating across the Middle East, they … Continue reading The war of signals: How Russia and China help Iran see the battlefield

Geopolitics, intel, Military

Morning Briefing — Sunday, March 15, 2026

Colin Henderson

1. What Changed Iran War — Day 15: Kharg Island Struck, Baghdad Embassy Hit Summary: US forces bombed military installations on Kharg Island — Iran’s primary oil export terminal — while Iranian drones struck the US Embassy helipad in Baghdad and a major Emirati energy facility. New today: Trump announced the Kharg Island strike; the State Department offered a $10M reward for intelligence on Khamenei and other top officials. The Embassy helipad attack confirms Iranian retaliation now targets US diplomatic infrastructure. Why it matters: Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iranian oil exports; its degradation deepens Iran’s economic pain but raises … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Sunday, March 15, 2026

AI, Geopolitics, intel, Middle East, Military

Analysis -Drone War Evolution: Equilibrium, Scenarios, and Off-Ramps

Colin Henderson

Introduction If previous wars were tanks and trenches the rapid shift to AI and physical cheap and effective drones point to a new step in drone warfare although it suggests more of a catch up on US part. It doesn’t feel like a Little Boy, moment but opposite and will extend the war, not bring diplomatic pressure unless targeting becomes more strategically aimed at driving diplomatic off ramps. Or in consideration of plausible scenarios is the Yuan repricing of Hormuz oil a more likely creative market driven indicator of what will bring an off ramp while drones produce a holding … Continue reading Analysis -Drone War Evolution: Equilibrium, Scenarios, and Off-Ramps

Canada, Geopolitics, intel

Morning Briefing — Thursday, 12 March 2026

Colin Henderson

“What Changed” items, three new/emerging flags, five secondary items, and one long-form pick.A few things worth flagging from this morning:The Russia tactical integration item is the sharpest new development — moving from general targeting assistance to specific drone doctrine is qualitatively different and will require a Western coalition response of some kind. Watch for NATO statements later today.The France nuclear doctrine signal is the carry-forward item with the longest arc — if Macron moves from signalling to any kind of formalised burden-sharing arrangement, it restructures European security architecture in ways that will take years to fully register.On Canada-US trade — … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Thursday, 12 March 2026

China, Geopolitics, intel

MI5 espionage alert issued on November 17, 2025

Colin Henderson

The MI5 espionage alert issued on November 17, 2025, is based on intelligence findings that Chinese Ministry of State Security (MSS) officers are actively using recruitment professionals and professional networking platforms to target individuals with access to sensitive UK governmental information.[1] Intelligence Basis and Methodology MI5’s assessment identified specific operational tactics employed by Chinese intelligence services, including the naming of two recruitment professionals—Amanda Qiu, chief executive of BR-YR Executive Search, and Shirly Shen, co-founder of the Internship Union—whom the Security Service determined were being utilized by the MSS to “conduct outreach at scale” on behalf of Chinese intelligence. The intelligence … Continue reading MI5 espionage alert issued on November 17, 2025