Category: intel

AI, Geopolitics, intel, Middle East, Military

Analysis -Drone War Evolution: Equilibrium, Scenarios, and Off-Ramps

Colin Henderson

Introduction If previous wars were tanks and trenches the rapid shift to AI and physical cheap and effective drones point to a new step in drone warfare although it suggests more of a catch up on US part. It doesn’t feel like a Little Boy, moment but opposite and will extend the war, not bring diplomatic pressure unless targeting becomes more strategically aimed at driving diplomatic off ramps. Or in consideration of plausible scenarios is the Yuan repricing of Hormuz oil a more likely creative market driven indicator of what will bring an off ramp while drones produce a holding … Continue reading Analysis -Drone War Evolution: Equilibrium, Scenarios, and Off-Ramps

Canada, Geopolitics, intel

Morning Briefing — Thursday, 12 March 2026

Colin Henderson

“What Changed” items, three new/emerging flags, five secondary items, and one long-form pick.A few things worth flagging from this morning:The Russia tactical integration item is the sharpest new development — moving from general targeting assistance to specific drone doctrine is qualitatively different and will require a Western coalition response of some kind. Watch for NATO statements later today.The France nuclear doctrine signal is the carry-forward item with the longest arc — if Macron moves from signalling to any kind of formalised burden-sharing arrangement, it restructures European security architecture in ways that will take years to fully register.On Canada-US trade — … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Thursday, 12 March 2026

China, Geopolitics, intel

MI5 espionage alert issued on November 17, 2025

Colin Henderson

The MI5 espionage alert issued on November 17, 2025, is based on intelligence findings that Chinese Ministry of State Security (MSS) officers are actively using recruitment professionals and professional networking platforms to target individuals with access to sensitive UK governmental information.[1] Intelligence Basis and Methodology MI5’s assessment identified specific operational tactics employed by Chinese intelligence services, including the naming of two recruitment professionals—Amanda Qiu, chief executive of BR-YR Executive Search, and Shirly Shen, co-founder of the Internship Union—whom the Security Service determined were being utilized by the MSS to “conduct outreach at scale” on behalf of Chinese intelligence. The intelligence … Continue reading MI5 espionage alert issued on November 17, 2025