Author: Colin Henderson

Progress in era of productivity
AI

OECD report on AI provides thoughtful and relevant context for current state

Colin Henderson

Intersting report from OECD. I focussed here in diffusion, i.e. the spread and systemic adoption of AI. With an eye on the eventual improvements in productivity effective diffusion is essential. The full report can be found at end of post.. For Bankers, consider this quote. This is the beginnings of the holly grail to address the elephant in the room of Banks data worries. Applications can transform customer relationships and marketing, by improving market segmentation and raising capacity to “Know Your Customer” (KYC), by automating basic customer services and enabling a 24/7 attendance, or by supporting content creation at lower … Continue reading OECD report on AI provides thoughtful and relevant context for current state

AI

Follow up to “Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates” (Chow, Halperin, Mazlish, 2025) – Test and Conclusion

Colin Henderson

introduces a novel approach for forecasting the timelines for transformative AI by analyzing macro-financial markets—specifically, the behavior of long-term real interest rates. TEST: apply this framework to current situation and explain what the output tells us about transformative AI timelines. Analysis Follows: (Perplexity.ai) 1. Theoretical Mechanism 2. Empirical Analysis Empirical evidence provided in the paper (across 59 countries, 35 years): Table: Key Relationships Macro Variable Empirical Finding Long-term GDP growth expectations Positively correlated with real interest rates Long-term growth volatility Slightly negative effect on real rates Short-term (0–5 yr) GDP growth forecasts Negative/ambiguous effect Country risk (CDS spreads) Positively correlated … Continue reading Follow up to “Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates” (Chow, Halperin, Mazlish, 2025) – Test and Conclusion

AI, AI_research, Economics

The paper “Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates” by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and J. Zachary Mazlish (August 2025)

Colin Henderson

Summary of Key Argument The core thesis of the paper is that macro-financial indicators—specifically, long-term real interest rates—can serve as a market-based “outside view” for forecasting the likelihood and timing of transformative AI (TAI, roughly equivalent to AGI or “superintelligence”) development. The mechanism underpinning this association is straightforward economic theory: Empirically, the authors find—contrary to some prior literature—a robust positive relationship between long-term growth expectations and real interest rates, using: Key Findings and Contributions Topic Paper’s Position & Evidence Interest rates as a forecasting tool Theoretically, both AI-driven rapid growth and existential risk should increase long-term real rates. Empirical evidence … Continue reading The paper “Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates” by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and J. Zachary Mazlish (August 2025)

AI

The most significant technology trends, product launches, and innovations from the past week

Colin Henderson

… include notable advances in artificial intelligence, major product unveilings by industry giants like Apple, accelerating investments in quantum computing and sustainability, and the emergence of key startup innovations across multiple sectors.[1][2][3] Major Technology Trends Notable Product Launches Startup and Venture Innovation Gadgets and Emerging Consumer Tech Big Tech Moves & Market Impact These collective trends—from generative and agentic AI to quantum breakthroughs, sustainable product engineering, and startup dynamism—are actively reshaping the near-term shape of the technology ecosystem.[5][2][1] Sources[1] September 2025 Tech Trends: AI Advances, Quantum Systems, and Sustainability https://www.webpronews.com/september-2025-tech-trends-ai-advances-quantum-systems-and-sustainability/%5B2%5D Startup Funding & Innovation Highlights: September 1–8, 2025 https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/startup-funding-innovation-highlights-september-18-2025-gooinn-chc4f%5B3%5D Apple’s … Continue reading The most significant technology trends, product launches, and innovations from the past week

banking, Business Models

Victor Leung on banks development of breakthrough products

Colin Henderson

A useful and common sense modern approach. The lead in shown is exactly how most banks approach product development. ———————————— Read on blog or ReaderVictor Leung How to Develop Breakthrough Core Banking Products and Services By Victor Leung on September 14, 2025 Banks must develop major innovations to prosper, but they don’t know how to. Many still try to build them with an old producer model. In that model, vendors publish roadmaps, banks write long requirement documents, and system integrators deliver projects after months of work. Academic research and field practice point to a different path. Important innovation often come from users. These users share and … Continue reading Victor Leung on banks development of breakthrough products

aml, banking, ID_theft, KYC, regulation, terrorist_financing

Terrorist financing since 9/11: How the threat and the response have evolved

Colin Henderson

Sep. 10, 2025 Dustin Eaton, CAMS As we pause to remember the tragic events of September 11, 2001 (9/11), we are reminded that 9/11 has forever changed how the world combats terrorist financing. The 9/11 attacks triggered a revolution in … Continue reading Terrorist financing since 9/11: How the threat and the response have evolved

Web/Tech

Explaining, at some length, Techmeme’s 20 years of consistency

Colin Henderson

Please clap for Techmeme [ed] if you subscribe to any internet news I recommend it be Techmeme. I’ve followed since the beginning and it’s my goto news on web and trends. Techmeme turns 20 freaking years old today. This is our self-congratulatory post marking the occasion. Please share, retweet, and offer your sincerest congratulations. And thanks to so many of you for reading us all these years. Now if Techmeme is new to you, here’s a short definition: Techmeme is a news aggregator highlighting the latest news reports that tech industry leaders need to be aware of, placed alongside contrasting … Continue reading Explaining, at some length, Techmeme’s 20 years of consistency

banking, Regulations, US

A New Wave of Bank Mergers Is Just Getting Started

Colin Henderson

Rebecca Ungarino President Donald Trump’s looser financial regulation has helped send bank mergers to a four-year high—and more are on their way. Risks and opportunities abound. Look no further than Comerica, the 34th-largest U.S. lender. It began life as the Detroit Savings Fund Institute, an early provider of savings accounts for customers who enjoyed a perk that was novel in the 1840s: earning interest on deposits. Over time, the firm combined with competitors, rebranded, and moved its headquarters to Dallas. These days, ComericaCMA+1.44%—the product of decades of mergers and centuries of reinvention—finds itself at a critical juncture in what could be the … Continue reading A New Wave of Bank Mergers Is Just Getting Started

AI, AI_factories, AI_research, Infrastructure

A comprehensive comparison between ‘compute’ and ‘inference’ in AI

Colin Henderson

An integrated analysis of technological, infrastructural, and operational factors including AI Factories, Data Centres, development practices, chips, and overall infrastructure. The following report—structured in APA format—presents a formal, detailed comparative overview, incorporating relevant business, academic, and technical sources.Source: Perplexity.ai Compute and Inference: Definitions and Context Compute generally refers to the computational resources required for both training and running AI models, whereas inference is the process by which a trained model makes predictions or decisions on new data. Compute is foundational for both the intensive process of AI model training and the comparatively lightweight process of model inference. AI inference utilizes … Continue reading A comprehensive comparison between ‘compute’ and ‘inference’ in AI