The paper “Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates” by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and J. Zachary Mazlish (August 2025)
Summary of Key Argument The core thesis of the paper is that macro-financial indicators—specifically, long-term real interest rates—can serve as a market-based “outside view” for forecasting the likelihood and timing of transformative AI (TAI, roughly equivalent to AGI or “superintelligence”) development. The mechanism underpinning this association is straightforward economic theory: If TAI is expected to accelerate economic growth drastically (e.g., global GDP growth > 30% per year), long-run real interest rates should rise sharply due to diminishing marginal utility of future consumption. If TAI is expected to pose an existential risk (unaligned AI), the marginal value of future consumption could … Continue reading The paper “Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates” by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and J. Zachary Mazlish (August 2025)
