Category: Economy

Economy

Morgan Stanley – preventative care vs sick care – growth impacts

Colin Henderson

Our Head of Europe Sustainability Research discusses how rising longevity is revolutionizing our fundamental approach from reactive to proactive treatment.—– Transcript —–Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Mike Canfield, Morgan Stanley’s European Head of Sustainability Research. Along with my colleagues, we’re bringing you a variety of perspectives; and today we’re focusing on a topic that affects everyone – how much does poor health cost us? And how are ageing populations and longer life expectancy driving a fundamental shift in healthcare? It’s Thursday, August the 8th, at 4pm in London.   As populations age across the developed world, health systems need to help … Continue reading Morgan Stanley – preventative care vs sick care – growth impacts

Economy

Black Swan hedging

Colin Henderson

Our markets team has put together a list of what bankers say you should — and shouldn’t — do when markets crash. One thing traders did yesterday was rush to insure their portfolios against an extreme market crash. In an echo of the chaotic period at the start of the pandemic, a defensive strategy often known as Black-Swan hedging was suddenly in vogue, with the Cambria Tail Risk ETF, an actively managed exchange-traded tail-risk fund, jumping 4.5% for its best day since March 2020. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-08-06/five-things-you-need-to-know-to-start-your-day-americas?cmpid=BBD080624_MKT&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=240806&utm_campaign=markets Continue reading Black Swan hedging

Economy

Caterpillar Profit Beats Estimates, Boosted by Stronger Pricing

Colin Henderson

Caterpillar Inc. reported second-quarter earnings that beat analyst expectations, helped by stronger pricing that helped offset a drop in sales.  Caterpillar, one of the world’s biggest producers of heavy machinery, is seen as a bellwether for industrial activity as a key supplier to industries from construction and mining to energy and transportation.  Caterpillar Profit Beats Estimates, Boosted by Stronger Pricing http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-06/caterpillar-profit-beats-estimates-boosted-by-stronger-pricing Continue reading Caterpillar Profit Beats Estimates, Boosted by Stronger Pricing

Economy

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Americas (Bloomberg)

Colin Henderson

By Morwenna Coniam August 5, 2024 at 6:37 AM EDT Good morning. Global stocks are falling with US futures in the red as a tech-led selloff accelerates. Meanwhile, concerns about the US economy are fueling speculation as to when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. And Mars is considering making a major deal in the snack industry. Here’s what traders are talking about. — Morwenna Coniam. Want to receive this newsletter in Spanish? Sign up to get the Five Things: Spanish Edition newsletter. Stocks slump The global stock-market decline picked up speed on Monday, with losses cascading across tech shares and the … Continue reading Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Americas (Bloomberg)

Economy
Colin Henderson

Odd Lots: The Hidden Forces Driving the Big Market Sell-Off Odd Lots The Hidden Forces Driving the Big Market Sell-Off https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000664111117 41:28 The Nasdaq is now in correction territory and the S&P 500 is down more than 2% so far this month. Analysts are blaming any number of things for the selloff, including a slowdown in the economy, the Federal Reserve being behind the curve on rate cuts, hedge funds rotating out of positions, and waning enthusiasm for AI. But Matt King, the former Citigroup strategist who’s now founded his own research shop called Satori Insights, argues there’s something else … Continue reading

Economy

So, shorting bonds is OK for the central bank because their prices are too high

Colin Henderson

China’s recent actions contradict President Xi Jinping’s vow to let markets play a decisive role in resource allocation. The People’s Bank of China has adopted “yield curve control” and is borrowing government bonds to drive up long-term yields. However, short selling in the stock market is restricted. These actions risk discouraging investor participation. [27 Jul 2024] Bloomberg Among the steps taken recently by China’s central bank is a new initiative to borrow government bonds from banks—the biggest holders of those securities—and sell them in the market in order to avoid drive up longer-term yields. In other words, shorting—just what hedge … Continue reading So, shorting bonds is OK for the central bank because their prices are too high

Economy, Progress

Ben Casselman NYT

Colin Henderson

What I Cover: “particularly interested in the long-term trends — demographic, geographic, technological, political — that shape the way we live and work.” I’m a reporter covering the U.S. economy for The New York Times. I’m an unapologetic econ nerd. I love reading research papers, debating the effect of policies and diving deep into economic data to find stories. But what I really care about are people — economic models matter only if they teach us something about the real world. My Background I have been reporting on the economy in one way or another for nearly 20 years. I … Continue reading Ben Casselman NYT

Economy, Uncategorized

Global Risks 2011 report issued by World Economic Forum

Colin Henderson

The World Economic Forum which has their annual meting later this month have released their Global Risk 2011 report.  Here is he summary from the report, and the full report is a free download here. Most likely and largest risks are those in the upper right as most likely and largest financial impact: Fiscal crises economic disparity energy price volatility global governance failure and climate change as most likely and largest financial impact This extract from the report is interesting view of the world and nicely summarises the risks. Three important risks in focus Beyond these two cross-cutting global risks, three important … Continue reading Global Risks 2011 report issued by World Economic Forum

Economy1 Comment

The real reason for maintaining artificially low interest rates – and what banks can do

Colin Henderson

A remarkable (if hard to read) piece from Martin Wolf highlights the underlying reason that artificially low interest rates are essential to prevent “uncontrolled collapse .. mass bankruptcy” Why we have to live with low interest rates | ft.com – Martin Wolf The deepest question is whether current policy risks generating huge disturbances in future. As both Ms Altmann and Mr Smithers note, encouraging spending by raising asset prices evidently risks creating another round of what Austrian economists label “malinvestment”. Credit may also surge, once more, generating another round of irresponsible behaviour in the financial sector and ultimately another wave … Continue reading The real reason for maintaining artificially low interest rates – and what banks can do