Category: Economy

Diplomacy, Economy, GeopoliticsLeave a comment

Morning Briefing — Friday, 1 May 2026 · 7:10 AM EST · 1,190 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s briefing clusters around institutional decay. The US War Powers 60-day deadline arrives this morning — Congress rejected the sixth attempt to curtail the Iran war, then left town on recess. Meanwhile Israel boards civilian vessels 800 nautical miles from Gaza in European waters, Trump threatens to pull troops from Germany as punishment for allied dissent, and Ukraine strikes Russian oil infrastructure for the fourth time in 16 days. The connecting thread across each story: legal and institutional constraints being tested, bent, or simply ignored. 1. What Changed Iran war hits 60-day War Powers deadline — Congress goes on recess … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Friday, 1 May 2026 · 7:10 AM EST · 1,190 words

Business Models, Canada, Economy, EU, Geopolitics, Military, NATOLeave a comment

EU Air and Space Shield

Colin Henderson

Some background to something I am watching and which will structurally change risk assessment and global finance. https://defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/document/download/9db42c04-15c2-42e1-8364-60afb0073e68_en?filename=Joint-Communication%20_Defence-Readiness-Roadmap-2030.pdf https://defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/document/download/b97e2ffb-4008-463d-bae7-e0ef519847af_en?filename=15102025_Readiness2030_FactsheetSPP_0.pdf The CWP 2026 foresees a European Space Shield Action Plan for Q2 2026. According to the European Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030, the European Space Shield is intended to reinforce the defence capabilities of the Member States and to secure the resilience and protection of space assets and services in response to an increasingly hostile threat environment. It forms part of the broader effort to achieve defence readiness by 2030 through the integration of national and commercial space assets with support from existing … Continue reading EU Air and Space Shield

Economy, EU, Geopolitics, IMF, UK, USLeave a comment

UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL IMBALANCES

Colin Henderson

#IMF March 3, 2026 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY After more than a decade of steady decline, global imbalances have widened in they reflect economic fundamentals and desirable policies, the buildup and persistence recent years. While current account surpluses and deficits can be appropriate when of large imbalances raise concerns when they are driven by policy distortions and unwind in a disorderly manner. The expansion of industrial policies and the rise in trade restrictions—often motivated by imbalances themselves—has intensified the debate on the causes and consequences of global imbalances, despite limited analytical and empirical clarity on how both policies affect the current account. … Continue reading UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL IMBALANCES

Economy, Geopolitics, MilitaryLeave a comment

Morning Briefing — Wednesday, April 8, 2026 · 08:00 EST · ~1,280 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is defined by a single overnight pivot: the US-Iran ceasefire announced by Trump on Tuesday evening has reversed weeks of escalating energy shock and market stress in a matter of hours. Brent crude is down 14–16%, global equities are surging, and the Strait of Hormuz is nominally open — all contingent on a two-week clock that starts now. The relief rally is real but fragile; the structural conditions that produced the crisis haven’t changed, and the ceasefire terms are already disputed. 1. Top Stories — What Changed US-Iran Two-Week Ceasefire: Hormuz to Reopen Trump announced a “double-sided ceasefire” … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Wednesday, April 8, 2026 · 08:00 EST · ~1,280 words

Economy, Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Friday, 13 March 2026

Colin Henderson

Eight stories across four sections, running to ~1,350 words. A few things worth flagging from today’s file:The structural signal in the analysis pick — Hormuz was closed not by a naval blockade but by drone strikes close enough to spook insurers into self-deterrence. Iran spent almost nothing; the global cost is measured in trillions of dollars of disrupted trade. That mechanism has changed the calculus for every energy chokepoint permanently.The Khamenei succession remains the most uncertain variable. His opening statement hardened every Iranian position simultaneously — Hormuz, US bases, the war tempo — with no visible off-ramp language. Whether that … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Friday, 13 March 2026

Diplomacy, Economy, Geopolitics

# Morning Briefing — Sunday, 8 March 2026

Colin Henderson

America/Toronto time | ~1,200 words 1. What Changed Iran War Day 9: Oil infrastructure now targeted, escalation intensifies US and Israeli strikes hit Tehran oil storage depots and refining facilities for the first time overnight — the first deliberate strikes on civil industrial infrastructure in the conflict. Iran retaliated with fresh missile salvos toward Israel and Gulf states. Trump has signalled a further escalation wave this weekend and says the war ends only when Iran’s leadership “cry uncle.” ⚠️ Civilisational inflection point flag: Day 9 confirms this is no longer a limited strike campaign — it is an active war … Continue reading # Morning Briefing — Sunday, 8 March 2026

Economy, Growth, US

Monetary Policy 5 Yr Fed Framework Review

Colin Henderson

August 22, 2025 Chair Jerome H. Powell At “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy,” an economic symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, WyomingWatch Live Over the course of this year, the U.S. economy has shown resilience in a context of sweeping changes in economic policy. In terms of the Fed’s dual-mandate goals, the labor market remains near maximum employment, and inflation, though still somewhat elevated, has come down a great deal from its post-pandemic highs. At the same time, the balance of risks appears to be shifting. In my remarks today, … Continue reading Monetary Policy 5 Yr Fed Framework Review

Economics, Economy, Growth

Federal Reserve Consensus Review – August 2025

Colin Henderson

Source: perplexity.ai Key Outcomes of the 2025 Policy Framework Review Interest Rate Policy and Immediate Outlook Economic Context Strategic Shifts Consensus Summary Table Aspect 2025 Review Outcomefederalreserve+2 Rate Policy Expectationsforbes+3 Framework Philosophy Flexible inflation targeting, balanced dual mandate, anchored expectations Early signals for 1-2 cuts (25bp each) in H2 2025 Inflation Target Remains at 2%, no change June: 2.7% headline, 2.9% core Employment Target No numeric goal; balanced approach Rate cuts contingent on labor weakness Current Rate Not addressed in review 4.50% (August 2025) Consensus Forecast Strong chance of September cut, possible December follow-up Rates trend to 3.75% in 2026, … Continue reading Federal Reserve Consensus Review – August 2025

Economy

Market and President stand off

Colin Henderson

http://www.perplexity.ai/page/dow-tumbles-1000-points-and-do-03oaviMmQaCw1UST0VEwjA US stock markets plummeted on Monday, April 21, 2025, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 1,000 points as President Donald Trump escalated his attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, calling him a “major lo ser” and demanding immediate interest rate cuts. The President’s comments triggered broader market volatility, with the S&P 500 falling 2.3% and the dollar weakening against major currencies. According to multiple reports from major news outlets, the verbal assault on the Fed’s monetary policy comes amid growing concerns about economic stability and inflation targets. Continue reading Market and President stand off

Canada, Economy, Risk, Roam

Benjamin Tal economist CIBC – Canada -US trade future

Colin Henderson

Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets 10/04/25 Despite all the calls to diversify Canada’s trade, the country will end up more dependent on the United States once tariff negotiations have concluded, according to a well-known economist. “We are in the midst of a global trade war, and in a global trade war, like in the Cold War, you have to choose sides,” Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets, said. On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump turned his global trade war into a faceoff with China after he announced a 90-day reprieve on higher reciprocal tariffs levied against other countries, but raised … Continue reading Benjamin Tal economist CIBC – Canada -US trade future