Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Tuesday, 31 March 2026 · 07:46 EST · 1,240 words⸻

Colin Henderson

Today’s briefing is dominated by the Iran war entering its 31st day with no ceasefire in sight, as three interlocking flashpoints converge simultaneously: the Strait of Hormuz standoff, a new Israeli invasion front in Lebanon, and a Knesset death-penalty law that is drawing sharp international condemnation. Economic and market anxiety is tightening — oil above $110 and a Fed boxed in by stagflationary pressures — while the April 6 Trump ultimatum on Iranian energy infrastructure sets a hard near-term deadline. The AI sector is moving at pace in the background, largely drowned out by the war. ⸻ 1. What Changed … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Tuesday, 31 March 2026 · 07:46 EST · 1,240 words⸻

China, Geopolitics

Confirmed- Iran has transitioned military navigation from GPS to BeiDou-3.

Colin Henderson

I have been tracking this rumour and consider it now confirmed. Attribution below. Gathered by Claude.ai ———————— BeiDou Proxy Stress-Test — Standing Frame UpdateStatus: Attribution now substantially confirmed. Multiple intelligence sources — including former French DGSE director Alain Juillet, Atlantic Council analysis (March 25), and CIA Director Ratcliffe’s confirmation that China is sharing intelligence with Iran — assess that Iran has transitioned military navigation from GPS to BeiDou-3. The operational effect is documented: Iranian missile accuracy has improved materially relative to the June 2025 twelve-day war. BeiDou is also being used to generate GPS decoy signals to confuse Western threat … Continue reading Confirmed- Iran has transitioned military navigation from GPS to BeiDou-3.

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Monday, March 30, 2026 · 07:00 EST · 1,310 words⸻

Colin Henderson

Today’s news environment is almost entirely dominated by one story: the US-Israel war on Iran, now in its 31st day, touching every other major thread — energy markets, nuclear posture, alliance cohesion, and the Russia-China strategic calculus. The secondary clustering of risk is the Hormuz supply cliff analysts are placing around mid-April, when SPR releases and sanctioned-oil exemptions expire simultaneously. The one distinct addition today: confirmed BeiDou navigation integration into Iranian military operations — see standing frame below. ⸻ 1. Top Stories — What Changed 1. Islamabad Summit: Four Foreign Ministers Push for CeasefirePakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia convened … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Monday, March 30, 2026 · 07:00 EST · 1,310 words⸻

Agents, AGI, AI_factories, AI_research, banking, Business Models, Development, Frontier_AI

Exploration of thesis: “Saas shift to Gaas”. What are impacts on Core Banking software vendors and regulatory regimes

Colin Henderson

(Gaas – Agentic AI as a service – source NVDA) Here is some real time research that emanates from today’s Morning Briefing. The core of this disussion is the shif to Agentic AI and provision of core services which goes to the heart of commoditisation for tranditional vendors. The scope of this discussion here is on core banking software vendors and banking regulatory regimes OSFI. Explanation 1. Prompt: my comments and questions 2. Output: results from Claude.ai This is raw realtime thinking. The space is moving fast driven by frontier development with Anthropic Claude Mythos exemplifying the direction of Gaas … Continue reading Exploration of thesis: “Saas shift to Gaas”. What are impacts on Core Banking software vendors and regulatory regimes

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Sunday, March 29, 2026 · EST · ~1,250 words⸻

Colin Henderson

Introduction Day 29 of the US-Israel war on Iran, and today’s environment is defined by simultaneous escalation and tentative diplomacy: Houthi missiles entering the fight, IRGC threats against US university campuses in the Gulf, and Trump’s April 6 Hormuz deadline ticking. Beneath the military noise, the economic signal is getting harder to ignore — markets are pricing a Fed rate hike for the first time in this cycle, the S&P had its worst week of the war, and the OECD has singled out the UK as the most exposed major economy. The China proxy dimension sharpened this week when two … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Sunday, March 29, 2026 · EST · ~1,250 words⸻

Diplomacy, Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Saturday, 28 March 2026 · 08:15 EST · ~1,180 words⸻

Colin Henderson

Introduction Today marks Day 29 of the US-Israel-Iran war, and the conflict’s geometry shifted materially overnight. The Houthis entered the war for the first time, firing ballistic missiles at southern Israel — completing the “axis of resistance” arc from Lebanon (Hezbollah) through Iraq to Yemen. Simultaneously, the diplomatic track is clustering: Pakistan hosts Saudi, Turkish, and Egyptian foreign ministers from tomorrow, with Germany’s FM flagging a direct US-Iran meeting in Islamabad “very soon.” Trump’s 10-day energy infrastructure pause (to April 6) is creating a narrow de-escalation window — but Iran’s formal rejection of the US 15-point plan, and now the … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Saturday, 28 March 2026 · 08:15 EST · ~1,180 words⸻

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Friday, 27 March 2026 · 08:30 EST · ~1,260 words⸻

Colin Henderson

Introduction Day 28 of the Iran war dominates the environment, and today’s picture is harder-edged than recent sessions. Iran has formally rejected the US 15-point ceasefire proposal and issued five counter-conditions; Trump responded by extending the Hormuz deadline to April 6 rather than escalating, a signal that back-channel contacts remain live despite public denials on both sides. Markets interpreted the deadlock unambiguously: the S&P posted its worst single session since the war began, and ECB President Lagarde issued an explicit warning that markets are materially underpricing the downstream economic damage. The G7 Foreign Ministers are convening in France today with … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Friday, 27 March 2026 · 08:30 EST · ~1,260 words⸻

AI

Decision ordered the Trump administration to desist from applying the president’s directive WSJ

Colin Henderson

Anthropic Wins Injunction in Court Battle With Trump Administration WSJ Judge Rita F. Lin of the Northern District of California in her decision ordered the Trump administration to desist from applying the president’s directive that federal agencies stop using Anthropic’s technology, and from implementing its designation of the company as a risk to the national security supply chain. She also required the government to provide a report by April 6 detailing how they have complied with her ruling. background Claude.ai The ruling just dropped today. Here’s the picture: The ruling: Judge Rita Lin granted Anthropic’s preliminary injunction, issued Thursday, two … Continue reading Decision ordered the Trump administration to desist from applying the president’s directive WSJ

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Thursday, 26 March 2026 · 07:47 EST · 1,318 words⸻

Colin Henderson

The dominant story today is diplomatic collapse in the Iran war: Tehran’s categorical rejection of Washington’s 15-point ceasefire plan — and its counter-demand for Hormuz sovereignty — signals the conflict is moving further from resolution, not closer. New escalation vectors are opening simultaneously: Iran threatens a second maritime front at the Bab el-Mandeb, Russia is confirmed as actively supplying drones to Tehran, and Ukraine has struck a Russian shadow fleet tanker near the Bosphorus. In the EU, today marks a structural moment for AI governance: Parliament votes its position on the AI Act Digital Omnibus, setting up trilogue. Markets remain … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Thursday, 26 March 2026 · 07:47 EST · 1,318 words⸻

Diplomacy, Middle East

Here is a summary of the 15 points of the US plan

Colin Henderson

… that Iranian media says the Tehran government has rejected: Source Bloomberg 1. The Strait of Hormuz will remain open and shall be free zone for vessels 2. Iran’s ballistic missiles will be limited in number and range 3. Iranian missiles will be designated as for use in self-defense only 4. Iran shall be stripped of all nuclear capabilities and facilities 5. Iran will forswear nuclear weaponry 6. There will be no uranium enrichment on Iranian soil 7. Iran’s stockpile of highly-enrich uranium will be handed over the International Atomic Energy Agency on an agreed schedule 8. The Fordow, Isfahan … Continue reading Here is a summary of the 15 points of the US plan