What a difference a day makes. After rising on expectations of a September rate cut, stocks sell off after a slew of data points to recession. — Read on http://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-08-02/market-selloff-fed-may-have-played-the-rate-cut-waiting-game-too-long Continue reading Market Selloff: Fed May Have Played the Rate-Cut Waiting Game Too Long – Bloomberg
The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a two-decade high but suggested that recent progress in lowering inflation could enable it to cut interest rates soon. Updated July 31, 2024, 2:49 p.m. ET6 minutes ago Pinned Federal funds target rate Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged at their July meeting, as economists had expected, and hinted that recent progress in lowering inflation could enable them to cut interest rates soon. Continue reading Live Updates: The Fed Hinted That Rate Cuts Could Come Soon
Where are we with AI now evolution Introduction I have written about AI from business perspective. Here I will look forward and cover how my original vision of AI as a business tool is coming along. Artificial Intelligence was introduced to most of us as ‘smart chat’. My original belief however was shaped earlier in 2023 which took it much further than chat. The shift in my vision took the impact a holistic vision of business benefit, social change and structural change. The model I had in mind is the British Industrial revolution which I covered earlier. There the shifts … Continue reading The Productivity Era
The marriage of liberal economics and democracy has brought immense benefits to the world, but faces its toughest test in decades. What needs to be done? https://on.ft.com/3XHLZIr “Universal suffrage democracy is only a little over a century old. Capitalism is older. But, in its modern corporate form, it is not all that much older. The system democracy and capitalism combine to create is one of social co-operation through competition and consent. Competition is at the heart of both the economy and politics. But that competition occurs within the context of rules and values internalised by society and embedded in law. … Continue reading Martin Wolf: in defence of democratic capitalism
For economists and data geeks, the World Bank is today releasing an impressive document containing a host of statistics and economic facts covering all the worlds economies and showing shifts in key areas as noted below. World Development Indicators 2010 | World Bank WASHINGTON, April 20, 2010 — The World Development Indicators (WDI) 2010, released today, gives a statistical progress toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The WDI database, launched along with the World Bank’s Open Data initiative to provide free data to all users, includes more than 900 indicators documenting the state of all the world’s economies. The WDI covers education, … Continue reading The World Development Indicators 2010 | World Bank
Demographics is an interesting science, and one that has real impacts on society over time that are really only apparent after the fact. Mauldin recounts a conversation with Strauss and Howe on their book, “The Fourth Turning“. The premise is that the US and the western world move in 80 year cycles, with four ‘seasons’ within each cycle. As historians, they have looked back in time, and concluded the cycles are quite consistent. Whether you buy that or not, the four cycles noted do describe the 20th century well, and place us firmly in the latter part of the third, … Continue reading “The Fourth Turning” | demographics and predictable change
The OECD today produced a report that is sure to be controversial. They are upgrading all their forecasts both for 2009, and 2010, but that FT headline mask the real underlying situation as it applies to consumers and businesses which I see as relatively no change from other forecasts. OECD sees strongest outlook since 2007 | FT Country Forecast for 2009 Forecast for 2010 Current Previous Current Previous US -2.8% -4.0% +0.9% 0% China +7.7% +6.3% +9.3% +8.5% Japan -6.8% -6.6% +0.7% -0.5% Eurozone -4.8% -4.1% 0% -0.3% Source: OECD The report notes that the unemployment rates and slackness in … Continue reading OECD forecast revised upward, but underlying economic forecast conditions remain unchanged
A short and useful paper offerring some points that help to frame the next few years for strategic planning purposes. This to be read of course in the context of politicians preaching ‘road to recovery’ which leaves the uninformed with the view that we will get over this blip and back to normal. I prefer to think of this as a shift that will profoundly change things for the next few years, with some good and some not so good elements in that shift. It may be good that the banking industry will be shaken up, and out of that … Continue reading The Aftermath of Financial Crises | study
Right after I posted this piece, thinking that finally people were starting to look to the future with a more pragmatic eye, I came across this from David Olive in The Star. I am by nature an optimist, however rationalisations such as this piece cannot alter some obvious facts. David Olive: Will the economy get worse? | The Star No. The current market downturn is still small by historical standards and the seeds of recovery are already planted. By talking the crisis up, we’re only prolonging it. Here’s some ammunition for the optimists among us. First we can begin with … Continue reading A more pragmatic view of the near future for scenario planning
Bankwatch 