Tag: GDP

AI, Growth, Progress

We Need a New Science of Progress

Colin Henderson

Humanity needs to get better at knowing how to get better. By Patrick Collison and Tyler Cowen July 30, 2019 In 1861, the American scientist and educator William Barton Rogers published a manifesto calling for a new kind of research institution. Recognizing the “daily increasing proofs of the happy influence of scientific culture on the industry and the civilization of the nations,” and the growing importance of what he called “Industrial Arts,” he proposed a new organization dedicated to practical knowledge. He named it the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Rogers was one of a number of late-19th-century reformers who saw that the United … Continue reading We Need a New Science of Progress

AI

My first attempt at a Manifesto for Responsible AI

Colin Henderson

Regulation of AI has become a cottage industry amongst Western governments. As reported by TechCrunch and captured here, “U.S., U.K. and the European Union signed up to a treaty on AI safety laid out by the Council of Europe (COE)” The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe brings together parliamentarians from the Council of Europe’s 46 member States. Its mission is to uphold the shared values of human rights, democracy and the rule of law. The Assembly uncovers human rights violations, monitors whether states keep their promises and makes recommendations. In the field of AI, it has adopted a set of resolutions … Continue reading My first attempt at a Manifesto for Responsible AI

Economy

Morgan Stanley – preventative care vs sick care – growth impacts

Colin Henderson

Our Head of Europe Sustainability Research discusses how rising longevity is revolutionizing our fundamental approach from reactive to proactive treatment.—– Transcript —–Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Mike Canfield, Morgan Stanley’s European Head of Sustainability Research. Along with my colleagues, we’re bringing you a variety of perspectives; and today we’re focusing on a topic that affects everyone – how much does poor health cost us? And how are ageing populations and longer life expectancy driving a fundamental shift in healthcare? It’s Thursday, August the 8th, at 4pm in London.   As populations age across the developed world, health systems need to help … Continue reading Morgan Stanley – preventative care vs sick care – growth impacts

productivity

The Productivity Era

Colin Henderson

Where are we with AI now evolution Introduction I have written about AI from business perspective. Here I will look forward and cover how my original vision of AI as a business tool is coming along. Artificial Intelligence was introduced to most of us as ‘smart chat’. My original belief however was shaped earlier in 2023 which took it much further than chat. The shift in my vision took the impact a holistic vision of business benefit, social change and structural change. The model I had in mind is the British Industrial revolution which I covered earlier. There the shifts … Continue reading The Productivity Era

Uncategorized

US deficit reaches world record levels, and rising

Colin Henderson

US deficit is now in Botswana and Russia territory in terms of record levels relative to GDP. The argument that this is not inflationary sounds to me like pushing water uphill. $1.4 Trillion Deficit Complicates Stimulus Plans WASHINGTON — The Obama administration said Friday that the federal budget deficit for the fiscal year that just ended was $1.4 trillion, nearly a trillion dollars greater than the year before and the largest shortfall relative to the size of the economy since 1945. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/17/us/17deficit.html?_r=1&th&emc=th Continue reading US deficit reaches world record levels, and rising

Uncategorized

The Economist Special Report on the World Economy coins the term ‘Gandhian Banking’

Colin Henderson

Under the heading ‘Gandhian Banking’ The Economist reveals the extent of worldwide government injection into banks at $432 billion by this spring and guaranteed bank debts at $4.65 trillion. Of perhaps even greater significance is the implicit guarantee that now exists for all banks. By this summer 33 American banks had repaid the capital the government had injected into them. The new era of state ownership seemed to be passing almost as quickly as it had arrived. But the state still has a large stake in the financial system beyond its explicit ownership of shares. It now owns the risk … Continue reading The Economist Special Report on the World Economy coins the term ‘Gandhian Banking’

Economy

Economic forecasts for Canada – latest June 2009

Colin Henderson

Here is a quick summary GDP forecasts for North American planners. Courtesy of CBC here is the summary of the banks and Bank of Canada GDP forecasts for 2009 and 2010.  For me the open question remains to what extent 2010 is wishful thinking.  The other and related problem with the graph is that GDP growth is calculated on a moving base. So the other way to read this is that even if the 2010 forecasts are correct, the absolute dollar GDP at December 2010 will not have achieved the level of Dec 2008, or 2 years previous. The IMF … Continue reading Economic forecasts for Canada – latest June 2009