Tag: investing

AI

Follow up to “Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates” (Chow, Halperin, Mazlish, 2025) – Test and Conclusion

Colin Henderson

introduces a novel approach for forecasting the timelines for transformative AI by analyzing macro-financial markets—specifically, the behavior of long-term real interest rates. TEST: apply this framework to current situation and explain what the output tells us about transformative AI timelines. Analysis Follows: (Perplexity.ai) 1. Theoretical Mechanism 2. Empirical Analysis Empirical evidence provided in the paper (across 59 countries, 35 years): Table: Key Relationships Macro Variable Empirical Finding Long-term GDP growth expectations Positively correlated with real interest rates Long-term growth volatility Slightly negative effect on real rates Short-term (0–5 yr) GDP growth forecasts Negative/ambiguous effect Country risk (CDS spreads) Positively correlated … Continue reading Follow up to “Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates” (Chow, Halperin, Mazlish, 2025) – Test and Conclusion

AI, AI_research, Economics

The paper “Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates” by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and J. Zachary Mazlish (August 2025)

Colin Henderson

Summary of Key Argument The core thesis of the paper is that macro-financial indicators—specifically, long-term real interest rates—can serve as a market-based “outside view” for forecasting the likelihood and timing of transformative AI (TAI, roughly equivalent to AGI or “superintelligence”) development. The mechanism underpinning this association is straightforward economic theory: Empirically, the authors find—contrary to some prior literature—a robust positive relationship between long-term growth expectations and real interest rates, using: Key Findings and Contributions Topic Paper’s Position & Evidence Interest rates as a forecasting tool Theoretically, both AI-driven rapid growth and existential risk should increase long-term real rates. Empirical evidence … Continue reading The paper “Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates” by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and J. Zachary Mazlish (August 2025)

Economics, Economy, Growth

Federal Reserve Consensus Review – August 2025

Colin Henderson

Source: perplexity.ai Key Outcomes of the 2025 Policy Framework Review Interest Rate Policy and Immediate Outlook Economic Context Strategic Shifts Consensus Summary Table Aspect 2025 Review Outcomefederalreserve+2 Rate Policy Expectationsforbes+3 Framework Philosophy Flexible inflation targeting, balanced dual mandate, anchored expectations Early signals for 1-2 cuts (25bp each) in H2 2025 Inflation Target Remains at 2%, no change June: 2.7% headline, 2.9% core Employment Target No numeric goal; balanced approach Rate cuts contingent on labor weakness Current Rate Not addressed in review 4.50% (August 2025) Consensus Forecast Strong chance of September cut, possible December follow-up Rates trend to 3.75% in 2026, … Continue reading Federal Reserve Consensus Review – August 2025

AI

What is behind the staggering ascent of Palantir?

Colin Henderson

The unorthodox firm is profiting from the AI and Trumpian revolutions Source The Economist May 8th 2025|PALO ALTO|5 min readListen to this story ALEX KARP acts like everyone hates him. As the boss of Palantir strutted the stage at a recent gathering of clients, he got a kick out of sounding perverse, in his tousle-haired, punk-professor way. He used words like “masturbation” and “self-pleasuring”. He berated Silicon Valley, though he was speaking in Palo Alto, its heartland. At the last minute, he cancelled an interview with The Economist, though he used to sit on its parent company’s board; he did not like … Continue reading What is behind the staggering ascent of Palantir?

AI, Business Models, Innovation, productivity

Blackrock Investment themes 2025

Colin Henderson

In listening to Blackrock Jay Jacobs Head of ETF he mentioned the investment themes Blackrock has identified in the context of re-industrialisation of the economy. See below for detail, but the core three are: Mega Force Description & Investment Implications Demographic Divergence Aging populations in developed economies are expected to constrain growth and productivity, while emerging markets with younger populations and expanding middle classes may benefit from higher growth potential[3][5]. Digital Disruption & AI The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence and digital technologies is transforming productivity, business models, and entire industries. BlackRock sees AI as a foundational driver of future … Continue reading Blackrock Investment themes 2025

AI

Palantir Stock Soars As Much As 28% To All-Time High—Becoming $200 Billion Company

Colin Henderson

Derek Saul Feb 4, 2025, Forbes Topline Recent stock market favorite Palantir notched another milestone Tuesday, surging after its latest earnings report to join an elite group of U.S. firms worth more than $200 billion as the software giant benefits handsomely from its “position at the center of the AI revolution,” as its billionaire CEO Alexander Karp describes it. Key Facts Shares of Palantir jumped as much as 28% shortly after 10 a.m. EST, registering a record share price of $106.91, as investors reacted overwhelmingly positively to the firm’s fourth-quarter earnings report released Monday afternoon, before the stock settled into a 21% gain by … Continue reading Palantir Stock Soars As Much As 28% To All-Time High—Becoming $200 Billion Company

AI

The Best of Bain 2024

Colin Henderson

The world ahead of us In this mailing we highlight the eight most-read and most-commented on stories of the year. Could they also be predictive? Taken together, they offer a frame through which to view a newly post-global world, where AI is an object of intense awe (and scrutiny) and where leaders distinguish themselves by building resilient corporations steeled against increasingly frequent shocks. The question to ask as you read is, which of these risks is actually your greatest opportunity? — The Bain Team 1 Tariffs and the awful price of inaction The globalized world is going post-global. Every executive … Continue reading The Best of Bain 2024

AI

U.S. Special Operations Command Expands Contract with Palantir to Deliver Advanced AI and Mission Manager Capabilities

Colin Henderson

December 09, 2024 06:59 AM Eastern Standard Time DENVER–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) today announced an expansion of its contract with the U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) to deliver technology solutions in support of enterprise capabilities. The one-year delivery is valued at $36.8 million and establishes Palantir as the lead software integrator for USSOCOM’s Mission Command System (MCS) while expanding the technology solutions supporting U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) globally. “Palantir’s Mission Manager is positioned to innovate the Defense industry by providing software to enable and operationalize commercial capabilities for U.S. Government missions. USSOCOM understands that commercial software can … Continue reading U.S. Special Operations Command Expands Contract with Palantir to Deliver Advanced AI and Mission Manager Capabilities

AI
Colin Henderson

Amazon Keeps Profit Margins in Orbit E-commerce giant’s strong operating earnings offset huge jump in AI spending and counter worries of margin decline By Dan GallagherFollow Nov. 1, 2024 at 6:00 am ET 7 Gift unlocked article Listen (4 min) Amazon CEO Andy Jassy says he expects next year’s capital spending to surpass this year’s planned $75 billion. PHOTO: DAVID RYDER/BLOOMBERG NEWS Like its big tech rivals, Amazon.com AMZN 6.56%increase; green up pointing triangle is spending a king’s ransom on artificial intelligence. Unlike them, it also has plenty of customers dropping money on toothpaste and razorblades.  That strange brew proved a potent mix for the company’s third-quarter reportThursday. Amazon … Continue reading

AI

Bad reporting example on bank runs in Canada without evidence

Colin Henderson

This is reporting at its worst. The content stretches to match the title but it is not even close. To talk about bank runs without context is wrong. Clouds on the horizon? There are alaways emerging risks, but no Canada specific clouds. Canada needs to prepare as the risk of bank runs rises, warns report ‘Emerging clouds on the horizon’ signal changes needed to existing checks and balances Get the latest from Naimul Karim straight to your inbox  Published Oct 01, 2024  •  Last updated 6 days ago  •  3 minute read Canada may not have had a big banking failure in many years, but “emerging clouds … Continue reading Bad reporting example on bank runs in Canada without evidence