⸻ Introduction Today’s environment is dominated by the aftermath of the US–Iran ceasefire collapse: strikes have paused, but the week’s escalation has moved to the diplomatic track, with Oman talks convening today and Mojtaba Khamenei issuing his first post-funeral message — a vow of revenge. Risk is clustered almost entirely around Hormuz and the terms on which the strait reopens. Distinct from prior days: the shooting has stopped, the signalling war has intensified, and markets have largely shrugged. ⸻ 1. What changed Oman talks convene as US demands Iran declare Hormuz openAfter a week of traded strikes (~90 US targets … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Saturday, July 11, 2026 · 10:00 AM EST · 1150 words

Introduction The dominant theme today is the simultaneous collapse and continuation of the US–Iran ceasefire: two consecutive nights of large-scale US strikes and Iranian retaliation against Gulf states, yet technical talks quietly persisting and third-party mediation (Pakistan, Qatar) active behind the scenes. Khamenei’s burial in Mashhad closes the funeral cycle while the new supreme leader remains invisible. Secondary clustering is around Western institutional churn — Burnham’s effectively uncontested path to Downing Street, and NATO absorbing Trump’s Spain trade cutoff and a formalized US drawdown from Europe. 1. What changed US–Iran ceasefire in tatters; strikes and talks run in parallelThe US … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Friday, July 10, 2026 · 8:30 AM EST · ~1,250 words

⸻ Introduction The ceasefire that held the Gulf together since mid-June is functionally dead. Trump declared it “over” at the NATO summit, the US has struck roughly 90 Iranian targets in 48 hours, and the IRGC has answered against US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain — all while Khamenei is buried in Mashhad today. Risk is clustered tightly: the Hormuz escalation, the Ankara summit’s aftershocks for the alliance, and a UK leadership contest formally opening today make this one of the densest news days of the year. Oil and Treasury yields are carrying the market signal. ⸻ 1. What changed … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Thursday, 9 July 2026 · AM EST · ~1,250 words

⸻ Introduction The dominant story is the effective collapse of the US–Iran ceasefire, announced by Trump from the floor of the NATO summit in Ankara — an unusual compounding of two risk clusters into one venue. Markets have repriced accordingly: oil up sharply, equities down, gold unwinding its war premium just as the war premium returns. What makes today distinct is the convergence: Hormuz escalation, an alliance summit strained by US withdrawal signals, and Khamenei’s funeral procession all running simultaneously. ⸻ 1. What changed Trump declares Iran ceasefire “over”; US hits 80+ targets after Hormuz ship attacksIran struck three merchant … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Wednesday, July 8, 2026 · 9:45 AM EST · ~1,180 words

Introduction Today’s environment is dominated by ritual and interregnum: Tehran opens the largest state funeral in the Islamic Republic’s history while the man it is meant to legitimise stays hidden, and Washington pauses the Iran talks for the week. The secondary cluster is European — Kyiv absorbing its third-deadliest attack of the war days before the Ankara NATO summit. Risk is concentrated in transition mechanics: Iranian succession, the 60-day MoU clock, and Venezuela’s expiring mandate all hinge on processes rather than events. ⸻1. What changed ⚑ Khamenei funeral opens; successor Mojtaba stays invisibleTehran began a seven-day funeral for Ali Khamenei, … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Saturday, July 4, 2026 · 9:07 AM EST · ~1,250 words⸻