Author: Colin Henderson

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Morning Briefing — Wednesday, 11 March 2026

Colin Henderson

Toronto / ET | Generated ~6:00 AM ET Source my custom prompt, with all research from Claude.ai and sources noted. Here’s the summary of what’s driving today’s briefing: Dominant thread: The Hormuz crisis is deepening rather than resolving. Three more ships struck today (14 total), the IEA’s record reserve release failed to hold oil below $90, and the US destruction of 16 Iranian mine-layers is escalating the military arc rather than shortening it. Mojtaba Khamenei’s hardliner posture and the Dimona nuclear signal make the diplomatic off-ramp narrow. The two structural flags I’ve carried forward: New today worth watching: The FTC AI policy … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Wednesday, 11 March 2026

AI

Day After AGI” games – RAND

Colin Henderson

The RAND Center for the Geopolitics of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) conducts “Day After” AGI exercises using RAND’s Infinite Potential platform to understand how the United States should respond to and prepare for potential artificial intelligence (AI) developments in the future.1 These exercises simulate a National Security Council Principals Committee (PC) convention to recommend a U.S. government response to developments in frontier AI. In each exercise, participants are presented a scenario that represents both (1) an acute crisis for U.S. national or economic security and (2) a signpost on a path to a transformative AI future. Facilitated by a simulated … Continue reading Day After AGI” games – RAND

AI

Morning Briefing — Tuesday, 10 March 2026

Colin Henderson

America/Toronto time | ~1,200 words 1. What Changed 1. Trump signals Iran conflict nearing end — markets stage dramatic reversal Wall Street opened Monday down 900 points on the Dow as Brent crude briefly touched $119/bbl overnight, then executed one of 2026’s most dramatic single-session reversals after Trump told reporters the war was “very complete, pretty much” and signalled Hormuz reopening. S&P 500 closed +0.83%, Nasdaq +1.38%. Oil retreated sharply but remains elevated (~$90–101/bbl range). Sources: Al Jazeera live | Rio Times global economy briefing 2. Iran names new supreme leader; IRGC stance hardens Iran has appointed Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Tuesday, 10 March 2026

AI

Two significant and related stories breaking simultaneously — and they illuminate a genuine fault line in the AI industry

Colin Henderson

Two significant and related stories breaking simultaneously — and they illuminate a genuine fault line in the AI industry. source: Claude AI Anthropic vs. the Pentagon The lawsuit stems from the Trump administration’s decision to label Anthropic a “supply chain risk” — a designation normally reserved for companies associated with foreign adversaries. The trigger was Amodei’s refusal to grant the DoD unrestricted access to Claude. Anthropic’s two hard positions: it didn’t want Claude used for mass surveillance of Americans, and didn’t believe it was ready to power fully autonomous weapons with no human in the targeting and firing loop. Anthropic … Continue reading Two significant and related stories breaking simultaneously — and they illuminate a genuine fault line in the AI industry

Geopolitics

War in the Middle East takes hold of the global economy

Colin Henderson

Venezuela, Greenland, tariffs, the Supreme Court, and now fresh instability in the Middle East. 2026 has been developing at warp speed so far, and it’s hard to keep up. Still, in this fast-moving environment, questions are – understandably – arising over what the economic implications of the US-Israeli war with Iran will be. The honest answer would be a typical economist’s response: it all depends. It all depends on how long the war will last, whether some semblance of political stability can emerge in Iran, and, most importantly, how long the Strait of Hormuz will be disrupted.  In our base … Continue reading War in the Middle East takes hold of the global economy

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Monday, 9 March 2026

Colin Henderson

Anchored to America/Toronto time | Format: delta-focused 1. What Changed 🔴 INFLECTION POINT FLAG — Iran Names Hardline Successor: Mojtaba Khamenei Appointed Supreme Leader Oil Smashes Through $100/bbl; G7 Finance Ministers Convene Oslo: U.S. Embassy Struck by Incendiary Device — Iran Link Probed Canada-U.S. Trade Talks Resume After Five-Month Freeze 🔴 INFLECTION POINT FLAG — France Expands Nuclear Arsenal, Extends Deterrence to European Allies EU Digital Omnibus Advances — GDPR Weakened for AI Training Markets: Oil Shock Compresses Rate-Cut Expectations 2. New & Emerging Norway: Ayatollah Video Posted to Google Maps at Time of BlastA social media and open-source thread … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Monday, 9 March 2026

AI

FTC AI policy statement due Tuesday, March 11

Colin Henderson

FTC AI policy statement due Tuesday, March 11The FTC faces a hard deadline this Tuesday to publish its statement on how the FTC Act applies to AI models — and specifically whether state laws requiring alterations to AI “truthful outputs” are preempted by federal deceptive-practices law. A leaked draft reportedly covers: AI-generated advertising, consent frameworks for training data, and automated decision-making transparency (credit scoring, underwriting, employment). This will be the first binding federal AI governance signal since Trump’s December 2025 executive order. Why it matters: Depending on scope, this could effectively pre-empt California, Colorado, and Illinois state AI laws — … Continue reading FTC AI policy statement due Tuesday, March 11

Diplomacy, Economy, Geopolitics

# Morning Briefing — Sunday, 8 March 2026

Colin Henderson

America/Toronto time | ~1,200 words 1. What Changed Iran War Day 9: Oil infrastructure now targeted, escalation intensifies US and Israeli strikes hit Tehran oil storage depots and refining facilities for the first time overnight — the first deliberate strikes on civil industrial infrastructure in the conflict. Iran retaliated with fresh missile salvos toward Israel and Gulf states. Trump has signalled a further escalation wave this weekend and says the war ends only when Iran’s leadership “cry uncle.” ⚠️ Civilisational inflection point flag: Day 9 confirms this is no longer a limited strike campaign — it is an active war … Continue reading # Morning Briefing — Sunday, 8 March 2026

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Anthropic CEO Accuses OpenAI of ‘Safety Theater’ in Pentagon AI Deal – includes text of leaked memo – Amodei

Colin Henderson

Author: msophiahawley Site: VKTR.com Saved 05 Mar 2026 — Anthropic’s CEO unloads on OpenAI in a leaked memo, accusing the rival lab of misrepresenting its Pentagon AI deal and fueling a growing fight over military AI. Key Takeaways A newly surfaced internal memo from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei offers an unusually blunt look at the growing conflict between the AI startup and rival OpenAI over military AI contracts with the US Department of Defense. In the message to employees, Amodei accused OpenAI of deploying what he called “safety theater” to secure a Pentagon deal that Anthropic refused to sign. “Our general sense is that … Continue reading Anthropic CEO Accuses OpenAI of ‘Safety Theater’ in Pentagon AI Deal – includes text of leaked memo – Amodei