Category: Risk

AI, Cybersecurity, Economy, Risk

John Law, the man who blew up the French economy

Colin Henderson

From Engelsbergideas. A rich and relevant commentary on John Law. In 1674 William was called on by the Scottish parliament to give a commentary on a report into the running of the Royal Mint. It was an outsider DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) moment The echoes from 400 years ago reverberate today and. add dimension to Risk development. Financial Markets look at risk for a single point of failure. Law is a classic example we can recognize today in the new US government. He infiltrated and invented fiat currency, global trade, cost reduction, country appropriation, real estate accumulation. Yet he … Continue reading John Law, the man who blew up the French economy

AI, Risk

Applying AI to Strategic Warning

Colin Henderson

Modelling instability risks and stabilisation factors for intelligence and national security Deep research from Alan Turing Institute on AI modelling future risks to inform strategic warning and black swan and significant events. Abstract ———————— This joint report from the Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP) and CETaS explores the potential of AI systems to make assessments about geopolitical events, and the path ahead for applying AI to strategic warning for national security and intelligence. With strategic AI competition intensifying and technological change accelerating, deliberate action and foresight are indispensable. A performant AI system could give decision-makers in the US and the … Continue reading Applying AI to Strategic Warning

banking, Economics, Geopolitics, Innovation, Risk, Social Theory

US Tariffs Set to Make world economic and military History

Colin Henderson

It is worth capturing this moment. It has the potential to be elevated to a moment in world economic history in the same vein as Bretton Woods, World Trade Organization, United Nations, and many other bedrock areas that preceded and followed WWII. The broad perspective was to encourage World stability in economic terms and those tools were designed to create a global platform of stability that would make WWxx things of the past. Here we are 80 years later and the flaws in those tools with their commensurate inability to adapt have created a global world of bad actors yet … Continue reading US Tariffs Set to Make world economic and military History

Risk1 Comment

“Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely,”

Colin Henderson

The idea of the philosopher king, a leader who governs with wisdom and morality, has long captured the imagination. During a recent coffee chat, my friend and I debated whether the most moral person should lead an organization. My friend argued that if a moral leader were at the top, they would always make the right decisions for the benefit of everyone. While I understand the appeal of this idea, I believe it overlooks a key problem: even good people can make mistakes, and the path to power often requires qualities that are far from virtuous. Good intentions alone are … Continue reading “Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely,”

Risk

RBC CEO McKay Prioritizes Organic Growth Over US Bank Acquisitions

Colin Henderson

$Royal Bank of Canada (RY.CA)$‘s CEO, Dave McKay, expressed disinterest in acquiring US banks, highlighting the challenges of inheriting issues from such deals. Speaking at Bank of Nova Scotia’s annual financial industry conference in Toronto, McKay emphasized his cautious approach towards acquisitions, questioning the benefits of taking over US banks and the potential problems involved. He stated, “The first question I always ask myself on an acquisition is, ‘Why are they selling and what problems am I inheriting, and can I run this business better than the current management team can?’ Despite his past acquisition of Los Angeles-based City National … Continue reading RBC CEO McKay Prioritizes Organic Growth Over US Bank Acquisitions

Geopolitics, Risk

Israeli Settlers Storm West Bank Village, Drawing Rare Rebukes From Israeli Officials

Colin Henderson

The Palestinian Authority said one person was shot dead; the Israeli military said it was investigating and condemned the attack, as did the Israeli prime minister. By Ephrat Livni Israeli settler attacks on Palestinians have surged in the West Bank, but a riot on Thursday in the village of Jit stood out for drawing rapid and unusual rebukes from Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose coalition government includes West Bank settlers in top positions. “Dozens of Israeli civilians, some of them masked, entered the town of Jit and set fire to vehicles and structures in the area, hurled rocks … Continue reading Israeli Settlers Storm West Bank Village, Drawing Rare Rebukes From Israeli Officials

Geopolitics, Risk

A Catastrophic Civil War in Sudan

Colin Henderson

How an unexpected conflict is crushing Africa’s third-largest country. Aug. 15, 2024, 6:23 a.m. ET You’re reading The Morning newsletter.  Make sense of the day’s news and ideas. David Leonhardt and Times journalists guide you through what’s happening — and why it matters. By Declan Walsh I’m The Times’s chief Africa correspondent, based in Nairobi, Kenya. After more than a year of civil war, the toll in Sudan is heartbreaking: thousands killed, millions scattered and cities besieged or destroyed across a vast nation three times as large as France. Much of the capital lies in rubble. This month, international officials declared that part … Continue reading A Catastrophic Civil War in Sudan

Risk

How Everything Became National Security

Colin Henderson

And National Security Became Everything By Daniel W. Drezner  September/October 2024 Published on August 12, 2024 In American politics, labeling something a matter of “national security” automatically elevates its importance. In the language of foreign policy observers, national security questions, such as regulating weapons of mass destruction, are matters of “high politics,” whereas other issues, such as human rights, are “low politics.” Of course, not everyone agrees on which issues fall into the national security bucket. And the American definition of national security has fluctuated wildly over time. The term was used by both George Washington and Alexander Hamilton during the Revolutionary era without … Continue reading How Everything Became National Security

Risk

The top U.S. and Israeli defense officials speak amid fears of escalation in the Mideast.

Colin Henderson

Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, on Sunday, the third call the two are known to have held in a week, amid rising fears of an escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran. In the call, Mr. Austin “reiterated the United States’ commitment to take every possible step to defend Israel,” according to a summary provided by the Pentagon press secretary, Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder. In an unusual disclosure, General Ryder said that Mr. Austin had ordered the ballistic-missile submarine Georgia to the Middle East. The Pentagon rarely announces the movements of … Continue reading The top U.S. and Israeli defense officials speak amid fears of escalation in the Mideast.

Risk

Japan Issued Its First ‘Megaquake’ Warning After Powerful Tremor

Colin Henderson

Bloomberg) — An earthquake off the coast of Japan’s southern island of Kyushu prompted the government to issue its first-ever warning for a megaquake from an undersea trough running along a swath of the country’s coast.  Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called off a planned trip to Central Asia out of an abundance of caution following the warning. Bullet trains were running at reduced speeds, national broadcaster NHK is running cautionary graphics and some semiconductor-related factories temporarily halted production. Some beaches in the affected regions have been closed off for the time being, according to local reports.  A megaquake in what’s … Continue reading Japan Issued Its First ‘Megaquake’ Warning After Powerful Tremor