“If the chain of title of the note is broken, then the borrower no longer owes any money on the loan” | Subprime redux


I have been reading John Mauldins weekly emails for a while and I gain tons of insight through it.  Tonights note including quotes from David Kotok at (www.cumber.com) almost made me fall off my chair.  Like everyone I have heard that US banks are pressing pause on foreclosures and there was some talk of fraudulent foreclosure notices with what I thought I heard about shortcuts.  The issue is much deeper. The Subprime Debacle: Act 2 | John Mauldin "Homeowners can only be foreclosed and evicted from their homes by the person or institution who actually has the loan paper…only the … Continue reading “If the chain of title of the note is broken, then the borrower no longer owes any money on the loan” | Subprime redux

Option ARM – $98 pm on a $315K mortgage … for now


The last time saw a graphic such as this was 2007, when the schedule for mortgage resets on US sub prime mortgages pointed to an inevitable crash beginning end of 2007 and through early 2008. Well here is the next picture that is eerily similar with forward predictions of similar catastrophe in 2011.   The US option ARM.  Apparently these are not necessarily sub-prime at least right now.  The real danger exists in the event that interest rates increase meaningfully to co-incide with the reset dates. Also we must look at this in the context of the Banks rushing to repay … Continue reading Option ARM – $98 pm on a $315K mortgage … for now

World economy 2013 | what should we expect?


A remarkable forward looking piece from Andrew at the ft.  Some of the implications: Russia extends influence through economic investment Stock values are one half of today’s value Interest rates are close to zero Dividends are at zero Central Banks are in complete control of regulation and of banks Banks are almost completely owned by the government A man from Fife is in charge of the world [scary] October 2013: that was the week that will be | ft.com By Andrew Hill What a week! The utility-dominated FTSE 100 celebrated the fifth anniversary of the crash of 2008 with a … Continue reading World economy 2013 | what should we expect?

Managing leverage combined with sound lending practices are essential for Banks | Wachovia failed on both


The Wachovia situation is a good example to illustrate the point I have been making insufficient capital at Banks, and their extended leverage. Citigroup Inc. to Acquire Banking Operations of Wachovia Under the agreement, Citigroup Inc. will absorb up to $42 billion of losses on a $312 billion pool of loans. The FDIC will absorb losses beyond that. Citigroup has granted the FDIC $12 billion in preferred stock and warrants to compensate the FDIC for bearing this risk. They are saying in effect that the $312 bn loan portfolio has significant bad debts and that Citi will absorb up to … Continue reading Managing leverage combined with sound lending practices are essential for Banks | Wachovia failed on both

US to take control of AIG


The official Federal Reserve announcement signalling that the US government is not prepared to let AIG fail.  This after letting Lehman Brothers fail, and pressuring Merrill Lynch into a sale to Barclays. Federal Reserve Bank of New York to lend up to $85 billion to the American International Group (AIG) The Board determined that, in current circumstances, a disorderly failure of AIG could add to already significant levels of financial market fragility and lead to substantially higher borrowing costs, reduced household wealth, and materially weaker economic performance More here at the FT The loan is at a punitive interest rate … Continue reading US to take control of AIG

US shoppers turn away from credit according to certain retailers


In the clearest sign yet of impacts on the Banks from the subprime crisis, US consumers are shifting to cash or debit and away from credit cards. US shoppers turn away from credit Mainstream retailers are reporting that shoppers are opting for debit cards or cash instead of credit cards as they face tighter credit limits, illustrating how the wider credit crunch is being transferred to main street spending. However the message is clouded by the fact that while certain retailers are noting the shift, Visa and Mastercard are seeing card usage relatively unchanged.  The shift was first noted by … Continue reading US shoppers turn away from credit according to certain retailers

Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ invest further in UnionBanCal


As predicted, here is the first example of Asian Banks seeking positive investment opportunities amongst the American Banks. In this case they are being characteristically careful and investing in one they already know. FT.com / Lex / Financial services & property – MUFJ/UnionBanCal The second is that the would-be buyer is Japanese. Mitsubishi UFJ wants to buy the 35 per cent it does not already own of UnionBanCal for $63 a share, implying a valuation of $8.8bn for the owner of Union Bank of California. Relatively unscathed, Japanese banks have already lent a financial hand to struggling global peers. MUFJ … Continue reading Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ invest further in UnionBanCal

Two more Banks shut down by FDIC


Two down, and approx 88 to go if current estimates are correct. There is an update due in August, and I would not be surprised to see the 90 estimate increased. FT.com / Companies / Financial services – US regulators seize two more banks Two weeks after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp seized IndyMac, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said it closed First National Bank of Nevada and First Heritage Bank NA of California. Continue reading Two more Banks shut down by FDIC

Given a Shovel, Digging Deeper Into Debt | Nytimes


This has to be the most depressing piece on the true underbelly of the subprime situation in America. Note how lenders have shifted to fee revenue to optimise the high personal debt situation. Given a Shovel, Digging Deeper Into Debt – NYTimes.com Lenders have found new ways to squeeze more profit from borrowers. Though prevailing interest rates have fallen to the low single digits in recent years, for example, the rates that credit card issuers routinely charge even borrowers with good credit records have risen, to 19.1 percent last year from 17.7 percent in 2005 — a difference that adds … Continue reading Given a Shovel, Digging Deeper Into Debt | Nytimes

More on the valuation of Freddie/ Fannie, and their capital requirement


UPDATE: to post 14th July 2008 Fannie/ Freddie collectively have $5,300 billion in mortgage credits against $ 81 bn in capital. Any revaluation of their mortgages by more than 1.5% discount will wipe out their capital base. More than half their loans are from the peak years of 2005 – 2007. Valuation of their mortgages is difficult, but it is certain they are worth something less than face value. While they had a rule of not lending greater than 80% of home value, this rule was broken through top up loans, and potentially through loans purchased from investment dealers. Fannie … Continue reading More on the valuation of Freddie/ Fannie, and their capital requirement