Diplomacy, Middle East

Here is a summary of the 15 points of the US plan

Colin Henderson

… that Iranian media says the Tehran government has rejected: Source Bloomberg 1. The Strait of Hormuz will remain open and shall be free zone for vessels 2. Iran’s ballistic missiles will be limited in number and range 3. Iranian missiles will be designated as for use in self-defense only 4. Iran shall be stripped of all nuclear capabilities and facilities 5. Iran will forswear nuclear weaponry 6. There will be no uranium enrichment on Iranian soil 7. Iran’s stockpile of highly-enrich uranium will be handed over the International Atomic Energy Agency on an agreed schedule 8. The Fordow, Isfahan … Continue reading Here is a summary of the 15 points of the US plan

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Wednesday, 25 March 2026 · 08:16 EST · 1,290 words⸻

Colin Henderson

Introduction Day 25 of the US-Israel war on Iran is producing a sharp fork between Trump’s deal-seeking rhetoric and the military’s operational tempo, with a 15-point peace plan delivered via Pakistan now confirmed received by Tehran — which publicly denies any negotiations are taking place. Oil prices are caught in the same ambiguity, briefly dipping toward $102 before rebounding above $100 as Iran’s partial Hormuz concession raised hopes quickly cancelled by continued strikes. Domestically, the Anthropic-Pentagon case moved to a critical juncture yesterday, with a federal judge openly sceptical of the Pentagon’s actions and a ruling expected imminently. Today’s environment … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Wednesday, 25 March 2026 · 08:16 EST · 1,290 words⸻

Geopolitics

Senator – Iran as next investment opportunity

Colin Henderson

A contrarian view on Iran. Iran could be the next big global investment opportunity — if and when the war ends, Adm. James Stavridis, the former supreme allied commander of NATO who is now vice chairman at investment firm Carlyle, told Semafor’s Liz Hoffman. “If we’re allowed to have a tiny flicker of good news, we just had it,” he said after Trump announced a five-day stay of his threats to attack Iran’s electric grid, which provoked Iran to vow to strike Middle East energy and water infrastructure. Despite the ongoing military buildup in the region, Stavridis sees two-in-three odds … Continue reading Senator – Iran as next investment opportunity

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Tuesday, 24 March 2026 · 06:30 EST · 1,290 words

Colin Henderson

Introduction Today’s briefing is dominated by a single cascading event: the Iran war entering a volatile diplomatic phase, with Trump claiming “productive talks” and ordering a 5-day pause on infrastructure strikes — while Tehran flatly denies any dialogue occurred. The contradiction is significant in itself. Oil fell 11% on Trump’s announcement before partially recovering; Brent is trading near $100. Alongside the Hormuz thread, the UK took direct diplomatic action this morning against Iran — summoning its ambassador — and there is a new and underreported domestic security dimension: an Iranian national was arrested attempting to access Britain’s Trident nuclear submarine … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Tuesday, 24 March 2026 · 06:30 EST · 1,290 words

AI

US National Policy Framework for AI

Colin Henderson

The White House released this document today. In context of the risk based approach being adopted in EU and the Anthropic ‘supply chain risk, this document is remarkably open and introduces conflict. I certainly sets AI guidelines at the Federal level which will impact laws in place in California, Colorado, and Texas. Trump White House Releases National AI Legislative Framework source claude aiReleased Friday March 20, the framework calls on Congress to preempt all state-level AI regulation, maintain a sector-specific (not single-body) approach, establish regulatory sandboxes, and address child safety, IP, and data centre energy costs. It explicitly targets “coercion” … Continue reading US National Policy Framework for AI

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Monday, March 23, 2026 · 08:23 EST · ~1,310 words⸻

Colin Henderson

Introduction The dominant story today is a sudden and potentially significant de-escalation signal in the Iran conflict: Trump announced a five-day delay on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure after what he describes as “very good and productive” talks with Tehran — but the same morning, Israel launched fresh strikes on Tehran and the Hormuz closure remains in effect. Markets are whipsawing on the mixed signals. The secondary cluster is economic stress: Brent above $113, the ECB on hold, and Goldman projecting elevated prices through 2027. The Anthropic-Pentagon case moves to a San Francisco courtroom tomorrow — a structural inflection point … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Monday, March 23, 2026 · 08:23 EST · ~1,310 words⸻

Geopolitics

Israel is controlling US actions on Iran

Colin Henderson

Although Trump red lines get lost in what he says a few hours later, his 48 hour deadline on Hormuz is significant. But I worry more about Israel. They are openly defying yet supporting US at the same time. Quite a feat. More research source Claude.ai Good observation. Israel’s posture throughout this war has been remarkably dexterous — drawing the US in as the indispensable military partner while simultaneously operating on its own strategic timeline. The Natanz strike is the clearest example: Israel almost certainly executed it, both governments declined to confirm, and the Pentagon refused comment. That’s not coordination … Continue reading Israel is controlling US actions on Iran

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Sunday, 22 March 2026 · 10:23 EST · ~1,380 words⸻

Colin Henderson

Introduction The dominant frame today is the sharpest single-day escalation of the Iran war to date. Iran has successfully struck near Israel’s Dimona nuclear research centre for the first time — a meaningful penetration of layered air defences — while Trump issued an overnight 48-hour ultimatum threatening to destroy Iran’s largest power plant if Hormuz is not fully reopened by Monday evening. Iran’s parliament speaker has responded by explicitly threatening to irreversibly destroy all Gulf energy infrastructure if attacked. Simultaneously, Iran’s first confirmed long-range ballistic missile strike against the UK-US Diego Garcia base introduces a new strategic register — one … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Sunday, 22 March 2026 · 10:23 EST · ~1,380 words⸻

Geopolitics

Morning Briefing — Saturday, 21 March 2026 · EST · ~1,380 words⸻

Colin Henderson

Introduction The war in its fourth week is showing its first signals of potential de-escalation — Trump floated “winding down” — while simultaneously intensifying its structural blowback: UK base authorisation for Hormuz strikes, Iraqi force majeure, fertiliser markets cracking, and Brent holding above $109. The news environment today is distinctly bifurcated: kinetic signals easing at the top, cascading economic and food system consequences accelerating underneath. Separately, a major US securities verdict against Musk, the CUSMA talks formally open, and the EU AI Omnibus enters Parliament — all substantial in their own right, all somewhat crowded out by the dominant Iran … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Saturday, 21 March 2026 · EST · ~1,380 words⸻