Economy

The power of positive thinking from Deutsche Bank

Colin Henderson

This is a very sensible article by Neil Hume at the FT.  He notes the extraordinary growth in bank stock prices since the infamous CitiBank memo in March, wherein he basically pronounced the worst as over, because he had removed the bad people, was instituting new processes, and working with Government. What struck me is this quote from an analyst at DB (emphasis added) On London: Banks’ rehabilitation could take time Add it all up, and the reason banks have rallied is investors are no longer worried about nationalisation and are prepared to look through two years of rising bad … Continue reading The power of positive thinking from Deutsche Bank

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Ken Lewis is gone

Colin Henderson

No surprise but dramatic nonetheless – Ken Lewis is gone as Chairman – the writing is on the wall for him. Unfortunately he did himself no favours, showing up in Washington looking more like a bling bling movie star, but he was also American Banker’s banker of the year just a few months ago. He left the shareholders no choice today. How quickly the world changes ……  being chief of a bank ain’t what it was! New York Times breaking news Bank of America shareholders stripped Kenneth D. Lewis of his chairman’s title on Wednesday while allowing him to remain … Continue reading Ken Lewis is gone

Business Models

What does recovery mean for Banks?

Colin Henderson

Banks are at the centre of the economy.  Business and consumers conduct their day to day business using money and they do this through banks.  Stating the obvious you may say?  This is why I study the economy so closely and try to understand how it will look in the future, because that has a direct relation to how banks will look in that future. We are in a crisis of debt.  It is a debt crisis because consumers and businesses are over-leveraged.  Their debt is too high relative to todays asset values.  Asset values have decreased by 25 – … Continue reading What does recovery mean for Banks?

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FinovateStartup – 1

Colin Henderson

Caught  a few of the participants this morning and as we wait for the next few rapid fire presentations, some highlights.  Note there are 350 in the audience: Lending Club: highlighted some lender functionality, paricularly in the secondary market showed the ability of lenders to compare their returns to other lenders Tempo Debit Card; decoupled debit card sign up online, with 90% approval success offers rewards on your debit card aim to to be the MBNA of debit cards Wesabe: always my favourite – Gabe showed off the new web interface highlighted accounts, and discussions ability to dig deeper aggregate … Continue reading FinovateStartup – 1

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FinovateStartup will return to San Francisco on April 28, 2009

Colin Henderson

Looking forward to following FinovateStartup tomorrow.  While the big banks languish in the worry about their balance sheets, and the losses they still have to recognise, it will be refreshing to see examples of the future of financial services. FinovateStartup FinovateStartup will return to San Francisco on April 28, 2009 with an innovative new format that mixes fast-paced demos (no slides allowed!) from handpicked innovators with networking sessions featuring the largest group of financial technology startups ever assembled in one place. Continue reading FinovateStartup will return to San Francisco on April 28, 2009

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Update to Tanger Med Auto development in Morocco

Colin Henderson

An update to a post last July 2008.  Nissan have had suspend development of the Tanger Med terminal development in Morocco, but their partner Renault appear to remain in. It is noted that this is a suspension, not withdrawal, and partnet Renault is still in. This development is significant, and is in the same vein as the Gwadar development in Pakistan being mde by China.  The shape of world commerce is changing, and the current economic crisis just means those changes themselves are changing. As I asked in July 2008 – where is the Tanger Med for banks – that … Continue reading Update to Tanger Med Auto development in Morocco

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Fed releases methodology for bank stress tests

Colin Henderson

As part of its trickle information  approach the Fed released their methodology for Bank stress tests.  Another acronym SCAP (Supervisory Capital Assessment Program). General Description of the Exercise: The BHCs were asked to estimate their potential losses on loans, securities, and trading positions, as well as pre‐provision net revenue (PPNR) and the resources available from the allowance for loan and lease losses (ALLL) under two alternative macroeconomic scenarios. Each participating firm was instructed to project potential losses on its loan, investment, and trading securities portfolios, including off‐balance sheet commitments and contingent liabilities and exposures over the two‐year horizon beginning with … Continue reading Fed releases methodology for bank stress tests

Canada, Economy

Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report Apr 2009 sees economy worse that projected, but consumer credit is growing

Colin Henderson

Bank of Canada has released its quarterly Monetary Policy report.  It is useful here in the context of Canada and the impact on consumers, particularly as Canada has been painted as being in better shape than other countries.  Consumer confidence represented by purchasing is down, but consumer credit is still growing at a slower pace.  They question will be to what extent credit defaults arise over upcoming months. Speech and Report: Global industrial production has fallen sharply … … and Canadian GDP has fallen sharply too, and worse than predicted earlier .. … while the Canadian hit on wealth has … Continue reading Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report Apr 2009 sees economy worse that projected, but consumer credit is growing

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SIGTARP report and report to Congress on stress tests | Apr 19th, 2009

Colin Henderson

The only word for this document is breathtaking.  It is breathtaking because it touches a large amount of the US economy, and the largest businesses in the economy.  It deals with: Banks Auto sector executive compensation Executive replacement ‘luxury’ purchases, (eg corporate jets) SIGTARP administration And the detail contained in the 247 pages is work that is substantially net new since January this year.  I say this in defence of Geithner, and his quiet approach at first.  He has been rather busy.  But to the report to Congress today. The report sigtarp-april2009_quarterly_report_to_congress:   SIGTARP site. Summary of Geithners testimony at FT. … Continue reading SIGTARP report and report to Congress on stress tests | Apr 19th, 2009