Tag: China

Economy

Is China the next Lucent?

Colin Henderson

This is an interesting article over at Foreign Policy. It is interesting because it fits in the meme of what recovery looks like. Regular readers will by know by now I am firmly in the space that recovery will be framed by a smaller economy, and slower growth of that smaller economy. This piece compares the Chinese economy to Lucent during the dot com bubble. Lucent were selling to dot com company’s which disappeared. China was selling to US and to a lessor extent European consumers who have … disappeared. The minor distinction is that the consumers actually still exist, … Continue reading Is China the next Lucent?

Economy, US3 Comments

China and America economic future – Ferguson/ Fallows debate

Colin Henderson

A summary in NYT of the fascinating Ferguson/ Fallows debate at Aspen on the economic relationship between China and US. Ferguson: US and China are divorcing economically.  China will focus on internal consumption, not exports.  “Depreciation (of US $) is inevitable and the Chinese are working to end the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency.” Fallows: “…  doesn’t know what the future will hold, but he believes that Chinese officials still see the dollar as their least risky investment. Domestically, China will not turn democratic, but individual liberties will expand. He agreed that China and the U.S. will dominate … Continue reading China and America economic future – Ferguson/ Fallows debate

Economy, US1 Comment

No consumer driven economy in US | Geithner in China

Colin Henderson

Some important messages within Geithners speech in China today that paint a very different next few years compared to the last 10, and as the ‘G2’ move to manage a transition the American economy into one that is very different, yet stable.  And all this to be managed against the backdrop of  the fear of eventual inflation, which would devalue foreign holdings in US T-Bills, something China is acutely aware of. These macro factors will play a large role in US banks and credit unions strategy design for the next 5 years. no consumer purchase driven economy in US – … Continue reading No consumer driven economy in US | Geithner in China

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Update to Tanger Med Auto development in Morocco

Colin Henderson

An update to a post last July 2008.  Nissan have had suspend development of the Tanger Med terminal development in Morocco, but their partner Renault appear to remain in. It is noted that this is a suspension, not withdrawal, and partnet Renault is still in. This development is significant, and is in the same vein as the Gwadar development in Pakistan being mde by China.  The shape of world commerce is changing, and the current economic crisis just means those changes themselves are changing. As I asked in July 2008 – where is the Tanger Med for banks – that … Continue reading Update to Tanger Med Auto development in Morocco