Tag: China

Economy

So, shorting bonds is OK for the central bank because their prices are too high

Colin Henderson

China’s recent actions contradict President Xi Jinping’s vow to let markets play a decisive role in resource allocation. The People’s Bank of China has adopted “yield curve control” and is borrowing government bonds to drive up long-term yields. However, short selling in the stock market is restricted. These actions risk discouraging investor participation. [27 Jul 2024] Bloomberg Among the steps taken recently by China’s central bank is a new initiative to borrow government bonds from banks—the biggest holders of those securities—and sell them in the market in order to avoid drive up longer-term yields. In other words, shorting—just what hedge … Continue reading So, shorting bonds is OK for the central bank because their prices are too high

AGI

China to ensure their systems “embody core socialist values”

Colin Henderson

This development from China indicates their desire to continue the Chinese values within technology including AI. This adds another dimension to consideration of elements within the direction and progress to AGI. —- —- Financial Times Chinese government officials are testing artificial intelligence companies’ large language models to ensure their systems “embody core socialist values”, in the latest expansion of the country’s censorship regime. The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC), a powerful internet overseer, has forced large tech companies and AI start-ups including ByteDance, Alibaba, Moonshot and 01.AI to take part in a mandatory government review of their AI models, according … Continue reading China to ensure their systems “embody core socialist values”

Uncategorized

It’s looking a bit lonely for US on the “right side of history” – Summers

Colin Henderson

My Conclusion (full conclusion at the foot) While America worries about Taiwan and computer chips, China is waging economic efforts to replace the legacy institutions set up by the West after WW2 (1940’s). Analysis Larry Summers speaks out while attending this weeks IMF annual meeting. He goes straight to the mandate and actions of the IMF and World Bank. They were set up to operate the Bretton Woods agreements of 1944 designed to establish for the first time a world wide monetary order. Summers point is to suggest the mandate of IMF, World Bank and UN is increasingly losing relevance … Continue reading It’s looking a bit lonely for US on the “right side of history” – Summers

Uncategorized

China continues to display economic strain that will reflect on world economy

Colin Henderson

In the ‘how is the world doing’ category, this take (from the chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and author of ‘The Next Asia’ (Wiley), due out in September) on China is consequential for us all. The west imported cheap labour from there for the 15 years preceding 2007, and the after effect is coming home to roost. What will matter to us all, and to banks, is the relative impacts on currency values as the historic imbalances are rebalanced to a different metric. I have to keep going back to how banks in the west redesign their products and services. … Continue reading China continues to display economic strain that will reflect on world economy

Economy

Is China the next Lucent?

Colin Henderson

This is an interesting article over at Foreign Policy. It is interesting because it fits in the meme of what recovery looks like. Regular readers will by know by now I am firmly in the space that recovery will be framed by a smaller economy, and slower growth of that smaller economy. This piece compares the Chinese economy to Lucent during the dot com bubble. Lucent were selling to dot com company’s which disappeared. China was selling to US and to a lessor extent European consumers who have … disappeared. The minor distinction is that the consumers actually still exist, … Continue reading Is China the next Lucent?

Economy, US3 Comments

China and America economic future – Ferguson/ Fallows debate

Colin Henderson

A summary in NYT of the fascinating Ferguson/ Fallows debate at Aspen on the economic relationship between China and US. Ferguson: US and China are divorcing economically.  China will focus on internal consumption, not exports.  “Depreciation (of US $) is inevitable and the Chinese are working to end the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency.” Fallows: “…  doesn’t know what the future will hold, but he believes that Chinese officials still see the dollar as their least risky investment. Domestically, China will not turn democratic, but individual liberties will expand. He agreed that China and the U.S. will dominate … Continue reading China and America economic future – Ferguson/ Fallows debate

Economy, US1 Comment

No consumer driven economy in US | Geithner in China

Colin Henderson

Some important messages within Geithners speech in China today that paint a very different next few years compared to the last 10, and as the ‘G2’ move to manage a transition the American economy into one that is very different, yet stable.  And all this to be managed against the backdrop of  the fear of eventual inflation, which would devalue foreign holdings in US T-Bills, something China is acutely aware of. These macro factors will play a large role in US banks and credit unions strategy design for the next 5 years. no consumer purchase driven economy in US – … Continue reading No consumer driven economy in US | Geithner in China

Uncategorized

Update to Tanger Med Auto development in Morocco

Colin Henderson

An update to a post last July 2008.  Nissan have had suspend development of the Tanger Med terminal development in Morocco, but their partner Renault appear to remain in. It is noted that this is a suspension, not withdrawal, and partnet Renault is still in. This development is significant, and is in the same vein as the Gwadar development in Pakistan being mde by China.  The shape of world commerce is changing, and the current economic crisis just means those changes themselves are changing. As I asked in July 2008 – where is the Tanger Med for banks – that … Continue reading Update to Tanger Med Auto development in Morocco