Tag: Economy

Uncategorized

World Economic Forum 2008 – long on rhetoric, short on options

Colin Henderson

The Forum is an intense 4 days, and this year probably more so than most – even folowing it by written word and video as I did was intense.  There were some clear themes, and some clear leadership from surprising sources.  The surprise was the Asian contingent and their discussion of global co-operation. Prime Minister Aso of Japan, Premier Wen of China, and Prime Minister Putin of Russia all summarised the crisis well, and spoke clearly about solutions comprising both domestic programs to boost GDP and consumption, and global co-operation to re-arrange global finance Tony Blair was another bright spot … Continue reading World Economic Forum 2008 – long on rhetoric, short on options

Uncategorized2 Comments

Getting back to normal economic growth | we have it all wrong!

Colin Henderson

These two headlines tonight following the bank bailout and the auto bailout serve to validate my new view.  We are not going back to where we were.  Yet all activities of the governments’ to date are premised on the notion that after this hickup we will return to 1-2% annual growth in GDP reasonable interest rates, and increasing home prices. Who believes that now?  Where is the pragmatic thinking that plans for GDP at a fraction of what it was in 2007 ?  Where are the scenario plans for GDP at 75% and 50% of 2007 levels.  Such plans would … Continue reading Getting back to normal economic growth | we have it all wrong!

Economy, Uncategorized

Bank capital, economy, debt, and the true meaning of Jubilee

Colin Henderson

On the topic of Bank capital this chart embedded in Greenspans article shows just how much banks business model has evolved.  In economic terms this is the corollary to extreme business and personal debt. In the years following 1840 when bank capital was approaching 60%, as banks made loans, the borrower bought things that resulted in bank deposits which can then be lent again, and again.  The velocity of capital as it is know increased dramatically until 1940 and largely remained there – till now.  As banks re-capitalise the preachings of government to lend more is the ultimate paradox. Banks … Continue reading Bank capital, economy, debt, and the true meaning of Jubilee

Innovation, Uncategorized1 Comment

Bailout or buy some time while industrial disruption occurs for auto, banks and telco sectors

Colin Henderson

I have found myself reading more economics blogs over the last couple of years, trying to understand better what is going on and the impacts of the banking crisis. This blog, StumblingandMumbling is worth the subscription. It is insightful, and contrary enough to provoke thinking. It also happens to articulate things that I cannot help thinking about. Recession or Inflation targeting 2. The cost of recession isn’t just unemployment hitting a few hundred thousand, but the fear of unemployment hitting millions. But this fear exists even in normal times, because the job destruction rate is so high. The 25,000 jobs … Continue reading Bailout or buy some time while industrial disruption occurs for auto, banks and telco sectors