Tag: Economy

UK2 Comments

“Northern Rock risk revealed in 2004” | FT

Colin Henderson

It appears the weakness in the UK banks that showed first when the crisis hit, were foretold 5 years ago in a BoE simulation. Northern Rock risk revealed in 2004 | FT Banking regulators identified Northern Rock as the weak link in Britain’s banking system during secret “war games” held as long ago as 2004, the Financial Times has learned. The risk simulation planning, conducted by the Financial Services Authority, the Bank of England and the Treasury, made clear the systemic risks posed by Northern Rock’s business model, and its domino effect on HBOS, then the UK’s largest mortgage lender. Continue reading “Northern Rock risk revealed in 2004” | FT

Japan

Bank of Japan announces improvement in Japanese economy

Colin Henderson

In a surprising statement Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa announces improvements in the Japanese economy.  It is surprising following several years of slow economy even before the economic crisis we are now in.  Click through for that, and a review of several economies including Canada. Japan raises outlook | Reuters WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Japan raised its economic outlook for the first time in three years on Monday, and an important measure of German business sentiment rose in May, in further signs the worst of the global recession may be over. Research and guest comments by Nobuyo Henderson: I look … Continue reading Bank of Japan announces improvement in Japanese economy

Economy, Innovation

The Aftermath of Financial Crises | study

Colin Henderson

A short and useful paper offerring some points that help to frame the next few years for strategic planning purposes.  This to be read of course in the context of politicians preaching ‘road to recovery’ which leaves the uninformed with the view that we will get over this blip and back to normal. I prefer to think of this as a shift that will profoundly change things for the next few years, with some good and some not so good elements in that shift.  It may be good that the banking industry will be shaken up, and out of that … Continue reading The Aftermath of Financial Crises | study

Economy, Japan

How much do we understand the meaning of less GDP now and forseeable future

Colin Henderson

The fall in GDP for Japan appears nothing short of catastrophic, yet on a visit there last week by Nobuyo, the effects of this change are not obvious to the everyday Japanese person. One change that was noticeable in Tokyo is less foreigners (Gaizin).  The area around Roppongi and Azabajuban is normally where one can expect to see many western faces in the restaurants and bars.  No more.  Companies such as Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, and AIG as well as numerous other western financial services companies had representation in Japan, however that is quickly shifting. This still does not appear … Continue reading How much do we understand the meaning of less GDP now and forseeable future

Business Models

What does recovery mean for Banks?

Colin Henderson

Banks are at the centre of the economy.  Business and consumers conduct their day to day business using money and they do this through banks.  Stating the obvious you may say?  This is why I study the economy so closely and try to understand how it will look in the future, because that has a direct relation to how banks will look in that future. We are in a crisis of debt.  It is a debt crisis because consumers and businesses are over-leveraged.  Their debt is too high relative to todays asset values.  Asset values have decreased by 25 – … Continue reading What does recovery mean for Banks?

Economy

World Bank updates Global economic prospects downward

Colin Henderson

This revised forecast shifts from 2010 recovery,to an uncertain 2010 recovery.  Read through for data and forecasts on your country. World Bank updates global forecast This update of the projections in the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report (GEP) of December 2008, reflects the rapid  deterioration in financial and economic conditions—and the increasingly negative interaction between weakening economies and fragile financial systems—that have come to the fore since late 2008 for virtually every country in the world. gep-update-march30-2009 PDF Continue reading World Bank updates Global economic prospects downward

Uncategorized1 Comment

“These jobs aren’t coming back”

Colin Henderson

Finally the realisation is sinking in that this is no longer business as usual.  The economy will come out of this recession looking different. Job Losses Hint at Vast Remaking of Economy | NY Times The unemployment rate surged to 8.1 percent, from 7.6 percent in January, its highest level in a quarter-century. In key industries — manufacturing, financial services and retail — layoffs have accelerated so quickly in recent months as to suggest that many companies are abandoning whole areas of business. “These jobs aren’t coming back,” said John E. Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia in Charlotte, N.C. “A … Continue reading “These jobs aren’t coming back”

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Some perspective on GDP, and America’s ability to “come back”

Colin Henderson

This is much talk these days of the decline of the United States and a fundamental reshaping of relative world economic clout. It is worthwhile to reflect on the current size of economies before such claims are made. This rambling piece from Richard Florida that I thought was going to deal with the decline of America, actually ends up making the case that the impacts on US cities will be significant.  Of that there is little doubt, but the example of Detroit may not be the best to make the point (the Phoenix example is a better one). Detroit has … Continue reading Some perspective on GDP, and America’s ability to “come back”

Uncategorized

France fears backsliding on regulation

Colin Henderson

Ms Legarde was a bright star and clear thinker at the recent World Economic Forum.  There is not yet broad agreement on the methodology and priorities amongs the countries as to resolve the global crisis. In another interview she offers some indication of how globalisation actually works, and the comparison of UK and US approaches is stark.  There is a long history between UK and France, and now is not the time to let that get in the way. Transcript – Christine Lagarde – Finance Minister – France | ft.com BH: Are they retreating in Washington and London? CL: I … Continue reading France fears backsliding on regulation