Tag: Federal Reserve

Economy, Growth, US

Monetary Policy 5 Yr Fed Framework Review

Colin Henderson

August 22, 2025 Chair Jerome H. Powell At “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy,” an economic symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, WyomingWatch Live Over the course of this year, the U.S. economy has shown resilience in a context of sweeping changes in economic policy. In terms of the Fed’s dual-mandate goals, the labor market remains near maximum employment, and inflation, though still somewhat elevated, has come down a great deal from its post-pandemic highs. At the same time, the balance of risks appears to be shifting. In my remarks today, … Continue reading Monetary Policy 5 Yr Fed Framework Review

Economics, Economy, Growth

Federal Reserve Consensus Review – August 2025

Colin Henderson

Source: perplexity.ai Key Outcomes of the 2025 Policy Framework Review Interest Rate Policy and Immediate Outlook Economic Context Strategic Shifts Consensus Summary Table Aspect 2025 Review Outcomefederalreserve+2 Rate Policy Expectationsforbes+3 Framework Philosophy Flexible inflation targeting, balanced dual mandate, anchored expectations Early signals for 1-2 cuts (25bp each) in H2 2025 Inflation Target Remains at 2%, no change June: 2.7% headline, 2.9% core Employment Target No numeric goal; balanced approach Rate cuts contingent on labor weakness Current Rate Not addressed in review 4.50% (August 2025) Consensus Forecast Strong chance of September cut, possible December follow-up Rates trend to 3.75% in 2026, … Continue reading Federal Reserve Consensus Review – August 2025

Economy, US5 Comments

Bernanke is concerned about budget deficits

Colin Henderson

Fed Chairman Bernanke picks his words carefully here as the US treads that line between economic recovery and much higher interest rates which would produce other unintended consequences such as stifling growth, currency value shifts or inflation. Bernanke calls for action on deficits | FT Ben Bernanke on Wednesday called on Congress to take action now to bring down long term US budget deficits, warning that the bond market was concerned about rising US government debt. The Federal Reserve chairman said the recent increases in bond yields “appear to reflect concern about large federal deficits” as well as improved optimism … Continue reading Bernanke is concerned about budget deficits

Uncategorized

As predicted the consequence of government ownership is significant

Colin Henderson

A US regulator on Friday predicted that chief executives and directors of some of the banks that underwent the stress tests could lose their jobs, Regulator expects bank chiefs to lose jobs | FT By Francesco Guerrera and Nicole Bullock in New York Published: May 16 2009 00:10 | Last updated: May 16 2009 A US regulator on Friday predicted that chief executives and directors of some of the banks that underwent the stress tests could lose their jobs, in another sign of the government’s desire to have a say in the running of bailed-out companies. Sheila Bair, chairman of … Continue reading As predicted the consequence of government ownership is significant

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Bank of America Needs $33.9 Billion | NYT

Colin Henderson

As predicted yesterday, the amount of capital the banks need is far in excess of the amounts they were negotiating. This news just in from the NYT confirms what had to be the case.  If we do the math based on project bad debts, it had to be in the $20bn + range for the big banks.  Similar results will apply to Wells, Citi,  PNC and others in the group of 19.  Watch out for the stock market tomorrow.  Reality bites. Bank of America Needs $33.9 Billion, U.S. Determines The government has determined that Bank of America will need $33.9 … Continue reading Bank of America Needs $33.9 Billion | NYT

Uncategorized

The US Government displays extraordinary weakness with Banks

Colin Henderson

This is turning into something of a joke.  The whole point of the ‘stress tests’ was to objectively assess the capital requirements of the Banks’.  Surely no-one could have imagined any outcome other than a requirement to raise more capital.  The only debate might be amount and over what period. In any event there can be no reason to delay the production of the results.  The market is living in the false belief that the government will not hold the banks feet to the fire, at least judging by the stock market.  If we do not get this over with, … Continue reading The US Government displays extraordinary weakness with Banks

Economy

Transparency pledge in bank stress tests – now May 2009

Colin Henderson

Confusing messages coming out on the timing of the Bank stress tests – now expected May. Transparency pledge in bank stress tests | FT The White House on Wednesday pledged “transparency” over the stress tests used to assess the health of the biggest US banks, as officials pushed wary banks and regulators to agree to disclose as much information as possible. Robert Gibbs, US presidential spokesman, said that “early in May” there would be “transparency of determining and showing to all involved some of the results” of the tests. Continue reading Transparency pledge in bank stress tests – now May 2009