Tag: history

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Mearsheimer-Walt: Framework and Challenge to the Liberal Rules Based Order

Colin Henderson

Supporting material to post on Risk … Hormuz Who They Are and Why They Matter Together John Mearsheimer (Chicago) and Stephen Walt (Harvard) are the two most prominent realist critics of American foreign policy from within the mainstream of the discipline. They don’t always agree on everything, but their critiques converge on a core diagnosis: the liberal international order is neither as liberal, as orderly, nor as beneficial to American interests as its architects claim. They became publicly linked through the 2006 paper — and 2007 book — The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy. But their broader frameworks predate … Continue reading Mearsheimer-Walt: Framework and Challenge to the Liberal Rules Based Order

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Risks Cannot Be Mitigated Without Proper Risk Definition Based on Factual Structure — e.g. Hormuz

Colin Henderson

Colin Henderson | Bankwatch.ca Historical research and analysis – Claude.ai (analysis posted separately) The Structural Thesis The liberal rules-based order masks but does not correct the natural hegemonic propensity of powerful states. Institutional frameworks — democratic checks, multilateral structures, constitutional constraints — act as the brake on that propensity. Remove the institutional framework through autocratic or highly concentrated leadership, and the hegemonic drive expresses itself without the liberal mask. This is not a policy choice. It is a structural shift. And standard risk frameworks are not built to model it. Hormuz is the current operational instance of that thesis in … Continue reading Risks Cannot Be Mitigated Without Proper Risk Definition Based on Factual Structure — e.g. Hormuz

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Liberal Values in the Post-WW2 Institutional Architecture – research and analysis

Colin Henderson

Research and analysis with Claude AI. Backgrounder to Risk Mitigation post: TITLE: Risks cannot be mitigated without proper risk definition based on factual structure – e.g. Hormuz Liberal Values in the Post-WW2 Institutional Architecture Prompt: Diplomacy and Values since WW2. What are the liberal values used in construction of post WW2 institutional architecture including but not limited to,  NATO, world bank, Marshall plan Output The post-WW2 order was a deliberate construction, driven by a diagnosis of what caused the catastrophe: nationalism, autarky, power politics without rules, and the failure of collective security in the 1930s. The architects — primarily American … Continue reading Liberal Values in the Post-WW2 Institutional Architecture – research and analysis

banking, Economics, sociology

Ancient Rome Survived High Inflation – Bloomberg

Colin Henderson

I came across this wonderful piece on inflation and beating it. Nothing is new in the world. Source: Bloomberg 2024 – Bloomberg membership required. _________________________________________________________ Ancient Rome Survived High Inflation. We Can, Too There was more to life in the empire than gore, sex and succession. The economic challenges look similar to our own — with a big dose of brutality.  July 2, 2024 at 3:00 PM EDT By Daniel Moss Daniel Moss is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asian economies. Previously, he was executive editor for economics at Bloomberg News. Worried that inflation is coming down too gradually? The Romans had a … Continue reading Ancient Rome Survived High Inflation – Bloomberg

AI, Growth, productivity

Productivity diffusion and invention during era shifts

Colin Henderson

Repost from my post to Medium Jun 2024. Introduction: I wanted to repost this from 2024 mainly to reflect what ha happened in the intervening year, where I was wrong and what we need to learn to move real gains in Productivity. _____________________________________________ How technology strategy, leadership and being the inventor does not associate with leadership. I have been considering the relevance of AI in context of more than just another invention, rather the catalyst for a step change in productivity. I believe AI, AGI and beyond will bring significant and consequential changes to countries, companies and people. But only if … Continue reading Productivity diffusion and invention during era shifts

Geopolitics, Military

Inside China’s dangerous nuclear game

Colin Henderson

This article is part of Engelsberg Ideas’ latest series, ‘The Nuclear World Transformed’, in which our writers explore the history and current state of the global nuclear landscape, and how it is being reshaped by a new age of great-power competition.  Between 1990 and 2001 something happened in China that is unthinkable in today’s tense world. In short, an American wandered through the Chinese nuclear archipelago and came out to tell the tale. It sounds like a novel but it is a lesson in game theory and it is pure fact. The American was the director of the Technical Intelligence Division … Continue reading Inside China’s dangerous nuclear game

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Valuing the Deep State: A Nine-Part Series by Francis Fukuyama

Colin Henderson

Francis Fukuyama’s nine-part series on the advantages, dangers, and complications of bureaucratic autonomy. Francis Fukuyama A compilation of Francis Fukuyama’s nine-part series on valuing the deep state, originally published on his Frankly Fukuyama column via Persuasion. Part I: Valuing the Deep State Why the hostility towards the “deep state”? In the first installment of his series, Francis Fukuyama pushes back on anti-bureaucracy sentiment and makes the case that a high-capacity, professional, and impersonal state is critical to the success of any society. Part II: The Origin of States To understand the deep state, start by exploring human nature. Fukuyama traces how humans have … Continue reading Valuing the Deep State: A Nine-Part Series by Francis Fukuyama