Tag: US

subprime, US

Option ARM – $98 pm on a $315K mortgage … for now

Colin Henderson

The last time saw a graphic such as this was 2007, when the schedule for mortgage resets on US sub prime mortgages pointed to an inevitable crash beginning end of 2007 and through early 2008. Well here is the next picture that is eerily similar with forward predictions of similar catastrophe in 2011.   The US option ARM.  Apparently these are not necessarily sub-prime at least right now.  The real danger exists in the event that interest rates increase meaningfully to co-incide with the reset dates. Also we must look at this in the context of the Banks rushing to repay … Continue reading Option ARM – $98 pm on a $315K mortgage … for now

Economy, US1 Comment

No consumer driven economy in US | Geithner in China

Colin Henderson

Some important messages within Geithners speech in China today that paint a very different next few years compared to the last 10, and as the ‘G2’ move to manage a transition the American economy into one that is very different, yet stable.  And all this to be managed against the backdrop of  the fear of eventual inflation, which would devalue foreign holdings in US T-Bills, something China is acutely aware of. These macro factors will play a large role in US banks and credit unions strategy design for the next 5 years. no consumer purchase driven economy in US – … Continue reading No consumer driven economy in US | Geithner in China

Uncategorized

California is in trouble – hard to imagine what that means

Colin Henderson

Could we see the state of California go under … ? California – a nightmare vision of the future | FT The Californian budget crisis is so severe that all public employees are having to take pay cuts. Public-health services are under serious threat, and there is talk of pushing Aids patients and the terminally-ill out onto the streets. It has proved impossible to raise taxes any further and the bond markets are in revolt. California is looking to Washington for help. But with the federal government running budget deficits of 12% of GDP, and the federal debt pushing up … Continue reading California is in trouble – hard to imagine what that means

US

FDIC aggregate bank losses masked by trading gains Q1 – 2009

Colin Henderson

The latest FDIC QBP is out and contains some sobering information on the impact of the recession on bank results. FDIC Quarterly Banking Performance – 31st March 2009 INSURED INSTITUTION PERFORMANCE Net Income of $7.6 Billion Is Less than Half Year-Earlier Level (61% less than previous period) Noninterest Income Registers Strong Rebound at Large Banks Aggressive Reserve Building Trails Growth in Troubled Loans Industry Assets Contract by $302 Billion Total Equity Capital Increases by $82.1 Billion Looking behind the apparently positive net income of $7.6Bn we see that first quarter earnings were $11.7 billion (60.8 percent) lower than in the … Continue reading FDIC aggregate bank losses masked by trading gains Q1 – 2009

Economy, Innovation

The Aftermath of Financial Crises | study

Colin Henderson

A short and useful paper offerring some points that help to frame the next few years for strategic planning purposes.  This to be read of course in the context of politicians preaching ‘road to recovery’ which leaves the uninformed with the view that we will get over this blip and back to normal. I prefer to think of this as a shift that will profoundly change things for the next few years, with some good and some not so good elements in that shift.  It may be good that the banking industry will be shaken up, and out of that … Continue reading The Aftermath of Financial Crises | study

Economy

Transparency pledge in bank stress tests – now May 2009

Colin Henderson

Confusing messages coming out on the timing of the Bank stress tests – now expected May. Transparency pledge in bank stress tests | FT The White House on Wednesday pledged “transparency” over the stress tests used to assess the health of the biggest US banks, as officials pushed wary banks and regulators to agree to disclose as much information as possible. Robert Gibbs, US presidential spokesman, said that “early in May” there would be “transparency of determining and showing to all involved some of the results” of the tests. Continue reading Transparency pledge in bank stress tests – now May 2009

Uncategorized

For the record – State Leader interviews before G20 – Financial TImes

Colin Henderson

Transcript: FT interview with Manmohan Singh – India Transcript: Stephen Harper interview – Canada Transcript: FT interview with Lee Myung-bak – South Korea Transcript: FT Interview with Sergei Lavrov – Georgia Transcript: FT Interview with Barack Obama – US Transcript: India’s security advisor on Obama Transcript: FT interview with Taro Aso – Japan Continue reading For the record – State Leader interviews before G20 – Financial TImes