Introduction The war in its fourth week is showing its first signals of potential de-escalation — Trump floated “winding down” — while simultaneously intensifying its structural blowback: UK base authorisation for Hormuz strikes, Iraqi force majeure, fertiliser markets cracking, and Brent holding above $109. The news environment today is distinctly bifurcated: kinetic signals easing at the top, cascading economic and food system consequences accelerating underneath. Separately, a major US securities verdict against Musk, the CUSMA talks formally open, and the EU AI Omnibus enters Parliament — all substantial in their own right, all somewhat crowded out by the dominant Iran … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Saturday, 21 March 2026 · EST · ~1,380 words⸻

Introduction Today is Day 21 of the US-Israel war on Iran — and also Nowruz, the Persian New Year — lending the conflict a symbolic resonance that both sides are exploiting. The dominant tone is escalatory: Gulf energy infrastructure is taking direct hits, Trump is alienating NATO allies in real time, and the Hormuz chokepoint remains effectively closed. A secondary but significant story breaks today in tech: the highest-profile AI chip smuggling indictment to date hits Super Micro’s co-founder. Markets are reflecting both — energy is the only sector in the green on the S&P for the fourth consecutive down … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Friday, 20 March 2026 · EST · ~1,320 words⸻

Morning Briefing — Friday, March 20, 2026 · Toronto time · ~1,350 words Introduction Day 20 of Operation Epic Fury is the dominant fact of the morning — and it is getting materially worse. Israel struck Iran’s South Pars gas field overnight; Iran responded by hitting energy infrastructure across Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE; Brent is now above $115/barrel. The intelligence governance story behind the war is equally significant today: the documented gap between Gabbard’s written and oral Senate testimony has sharpened the question of whether this war was launched on manufactured casus belli — a development with structural … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Friday, March 20, 2026 · Toronto time · ~1,350 words

Introduction Iran’s energy war crossed a material threshold overnight: a second strike on Ras Laffan has now caused “extensive damage” to infrastructure already offline since March 2, while Brent oil briefly hit $119 and Dutch gas futures spiked. EU leaders opened in Brussels this morning with a packed agenda — Hungary’s Ukraine loan veto, rearmament, competitiveness — and found it immediately dominated by a live energy shock. The [PT] thread is also breaking into the open: the Joe Kent resignation has planted Mearsheimer-Walt framing inside a senior US official’s public record, and a Tucker Carlson interview is expected imminently. Two … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Thursday, 19 March 2026 · Toronto time · ~1,350 words

Toronto time · ~1,320 words briefing Introduction Day 19 of the US-Israel-Iran war opens with the most significant leadership decapitation since Khamenei: Ali Larijani — Iran’s top security official and most prominent surviving voice of the regime — confirmed killed overnight by Israel, alongside Basij commander Gholam Reza Soleimani. Iran’s response was immediate and escalatory: multi-warhead ballistic missiles on central Israel, killing two in Ramat Gan; fresh barrages on Gulf states; and a categorical restatement that Hormuz remains closed. On the home front, the Kent resignation is producing its first-order political effects inside MAGA world, with the [PT] thread now … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Wednesday, 18 March 2026 ·