Author: Colin Henderson

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Morning Briefing — Saturday, May 2, 2026 · 08:00 EST · 1,280 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by three interlocking crises: the Iran war’s diplomatic stalemate entering its third month; a deepening fracture in the US-NATO alliance that moved this week from rhetoric to punitive action; and a fresh US-EU trade escalation layered on top of both. The 60-day War Powers deadline passed Friday with Trump claiming it doesn’t apply — a constitutional move as significant as anything happening on the battlefield. Brent crude eased 2.9% on thin peace optimism, but physical Hormuz shipping remains near zero. The gap between market pricing and operational reality is widening. 1. What Changed Iran War, Day … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Saturday, May 2, 2026 · 08:00 EST · 1,280 words

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Morning Briefing — Friday, 1 May 2026 · 7:10 AM EST · 1,190 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s briefing clusters around institutional decay. The US War Powers 60-day deadline arrives this morning — Congress rejected the sixth attempt to curtail the Iran war, then left town on recess. Meanwhile Israel boards civilian vessels 800 nautical miles from Gaza in European waters, Trump threatens to pull troops from Germany as punishment for allied dissent, and Ukraine strikes Russian oil infrastructure for the fourth time in 16 days. The connecting thread across each story: legal and institutional constraints being tested, bent, or simply ignored. 1. What Changed Iran war hits 60-day War Powers deadline — Congress goes on recess … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Friday, 1 May 2026 · 7:10 AM EST · 1,190 words

AI, RiskLeave a comment

AI in financial services: regulators 2 years behind banks

Colin Henderson

This post is targeted at both banks and regulators (OSFI in Canada ). More specifically Agentic AI is the risk frame here. Agentic AI is defined here in banking context, goes exponentially beyond automation. Take mortgage sourcing. Banks have multiple and defined process for mortgages that sources, adjudicates, processes and funds. Each step is calibrated and defined and understood by regulators and those mortgages go on to be bundled and sold as tranches with known, defined risks. Where Agentic AI takes over the agent determines the best and most effective process to follow and will establish improvements which could bundle … Continue reading AI in financial services: regulators 2 years behind banks

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Morning Briefing — Thursday, April 30, 2026 · 7:41 AM EST · 1,290 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s briefing is dominated by the Iran conflict entering its 61st day with negotiations stalled, a dual-blockade frozen conflict risk hardening, and two structural breaks visible in the energy order: the UAE’s exit from OPEC (effective today, May 1) and Brent crude above $120. King Charles’s pointed Congress speech and Trump’s immediate threat to reduce US troops in Germany add a transatlantic dimension that is no longer theoretical. The AI-in-banking story has its first systemic-risk marker worth tracking. 1. Top Stories — What Changed Iran/US: Negotiations deadlocked, frozen conflict risk now named Day 61. Trump has publicly rejected Iran’s latest … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Thursday, April 30, 2026 · 7:41 AM EST · 1,290 words

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Colin Henderson

This Reuters piece goes some way to explain the confusion within negotiations and Russias relative silence. Suggests no quick solution.Iran’s Guards seize wartime power, weakening Supreme Leader’s role – https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/irans-guards-seize-wartime-power-blunting-supreme-leaders-role-2026-04-28/?utm_source=braze&utm_medium=notifications&utm_campaign=2025_engagementWartime pressure has concentrated power into a narrower, harder-line inner circle rooted in the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), the Supreme Leader’s office and the IRGC, which now dominates both military strategy and key political decisions, Iranian officials and analysts say. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/irans-guards-seize-wartime-power-blunting-supreme-leaders-role-2026-04-28/ Claude output Good piece — and it significantly upgrades the analytical picture. Let me work through what it actually means across the negotiation structure, Russia’s silence, and your PT … Continue reading

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Morning Briefing — Wednesday, 29 April 2026 · 8:33 AM EST · ~1,180 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is defined by three converging forces: a stalemated Iran war that is now clearly a multi-front stress test on US foreign policy, energy markets, and alliance cohesion; a Big Tech earnings day that will deliver the first real accountability test for $600B+ in AI infrastructure spending; and a Fed that held rates again this morning in what is almost certainly Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chair. The day has an end-of-an-era quality across all three domains. 1. Top Stories — What Changed Iran peace talks collapse again; Hormuz dual-track proposal on table Iran has submitted a new proposal … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Wednesday, 29 April 2026 · 8:33 AM EST · ~1,180 words

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Morning Briefing — Tuesday, April 28, 2026 · 07:30 EST · 1,280 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by the Hormuz diplomatic standoff — Iran floated a novel proposal that moves the nuclear question downstream, and Washington immediately signalled it won’t bite. That diplomatic chill is rippling outward: markets fell in Asia, the NPT Review Conference opened in New York under extraordinary tension, and Germany’s chancellor delivered the sharpest European rebuke of the war to date. Structural stress across the Iran/US/Europe triangle is the defining thread; Canada-CUSMA and AI regulation provide secondary but meaningful signal. 1. What Changed Iran offers Hormuz-first deal; Washington coldIran transmitted a proposal via Pakistan: reopen the Strait, end the … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Tuesday, April 28, 2026 · 07:30 EST · 1,280 words

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Morning Briefing — Monday, 27 April 2026 · 07:00 EST · 1,287 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by two overlapping crises in uneasy co-existence: a fragile Hormuz-linked ceasefire that is simultaneously the most important diplomatic process in the world and the most likely to fail overnight, and a domestic US security shock following Saturday’s shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. Markets are moving cautiously positive on Iran signals; policy attention in Washington is fractured. Canada’s CUSMA advisory panel holds its first meeting today, entering a negotiating climate that is rapidly souring. 1. Top Stories — What Changed Iran offers Hormuz deal; decouples from nuclear talks Iran transmitted a proposal through Pakistani mediators … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Monday, 27 April 2026 · 07:00 EST · 1,287 words

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Top 20 Arms Sales / Country 2023/4

Colin Henderson

Source: STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The independent resource on global security ____________________________________________ South Korea, Russia, Germany show significant increases. When we get 2025 data this trend will show even more of a shift to Europe, Asia reflecting NATO fracturing, and countries that support all growth (Korea). Why it matters: This will create shifts in investment choices and NATO structure, so worldwide implications. This is largely driven by US focus on own self interests and increasingly Israel lobby (AIPAC) influence on foreign policy with intended and untended consequences this brings. It remains to be seen whether this structural shift holds up … Continue reading Top 20 Arms Sales / Country 2023/4

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Hegseth: “Get in a boat”

Colin Henderson

Hegseth: “Get in a boat” — US makes Hormuz formally Europe’s problem Hegseth stated publicly that Europe “needs the Strait of Hormuz much more than we do” and should stop “having fancy conferences” and get in a boat. The White House reportedly circulated a “naughty and nice” list of NATO members — Israel, Poland, the Baltics, and increasingly Germany on the preferred side; Spain and the UK on the punitive side. New today: Hegseth framing now confirmed as official US policy posture, not off-script; Pentagon email gives it teeth. Why it matters: A direct inversion of collective defence logic — … Continue reading Hegseth: “Get in a boat”