Author: Colin Henderson

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Morning Briefing — Saturday, 25 April 2026 · 07:00 EST · ~1,270 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s briefing is dominated by a single compounding crisis: Hormuz remains the pivot around which diplomacy, energy markets, and alliance politics are simultaneously spinning. The tone is one of fragile, multi-layered negotiation — Iran talks restart in Islamabad this morning, the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire gets a 3-week extension, but no breakthrough is in sight and oil sits above $105. What makes today distinct is the sudden hardening of the NATO-US rift into concrete institutional threats, with a Pentagon memo floating Spain’s expulsion and a Falklands reversal against the UK. 1 · Top Stories — What Changed Iran talks resume in Islamabad … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Saturday, 25 April 2026 · 07:00 EST · ~1,270 words

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LLM inefficiency and what could be the better model than next-token prediction

Colin Henderson

A discussion I had with Anthropic Claude verbatim. (Bloomberg: circular support amongst small group of individual players and the inherent financial risk if current frontier models for AI cannot provide the expected value) Prompt: Re the financial risk referred to in this Bloomberg piece, is there any evidence of work on a better inference and reasoning model that doesn’t drive exponential requirements in data centre capacity to support the model. It seems the current model requires is highly inefficient requiring infinite capacity to support. # There’s substantial work underway — but with an important caveat that’s directly relevant to the … Continue reading LLM inefficiency and what could be the better model than next-token prediction

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Morning Briefing — Friday, 24 April 2026 · 7:45 AM EST · ~1,150 words

Colin Henderson

The dominant story today is the Hormuz standoff crossing a threshold from maritime friction into direct naval combat: ship seizures, Trump’s “shoot and kill” mine-boat order, and the Lebanon ceasefire extension running in parallel — diplomatic and kinetic simultaneously. The news environment is more volatile than yesterday’s; there is no stable ceasefire framework in the Strait, and both sides are now escalating operationally while nominally still talking. Secondary clustering: NATO’s structural pivot is no longer just rhetorical — spending data confirms the break — and North Korean weapons integration in Ukraine is proving more sophisticated than previously assessed. 1. Top … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Friday, 24 April 2026 · 7:45 AM EST · ~1,150 words

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Morning Briefing — Thursday, April 23, 2026 · 9:42 AM EST · ~1,150 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by a single structural thread: the Iran ceasefire is holding — barely — while the conditions for its collapse are accumulating in real time. The IMF’s Spring Outlook published this week puts hard numbers on the damage already done. UK domestic politics has its own destabilising drama that is eroding what was left of Starmer’s authority. The AI governance picture is hardening on both sides of the Atlantic, with more institutional scaffolding than actual constraint. 1. Top Stories — What Changed Iran ceasefire extended without deadline; Hormuz seizures continue (Day 55)Trump extended the two-week truce on … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Thursday, April 23, 2026 · 9:42 AM EST · ~1,150 words

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Europe Defense Strategy 2026: EU Moves Toward Independent Security

Colin Henderson

EU military independence 2026 EU military independence 2026 This article breaks down what the EU’s rearmament drive actually involves, why it is happening now, and what it means for NATO, global stability, and the future of the Western alliance. EU military independence 2026 Europe is undergoing its most significant military transformation since the end of the Cold War. In April 2026, the European Union is actively advancing its push for EU military independence, a sweeping strategic shift designed to reduce the continent’s reliance on the United States and NATO for its core security needs. Driven by geopolitical turbulence  from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine … Continue reading Europe Defense Strategy 2026: EU Moves Toward Independent Security

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Orbital data centres: power constraint forces compute off-planet

Colin Henderson

Orbital data centres: power constraint forces compute off-planet Worth highlighting from today’s briefing. Orbital data centres: power constraint forces compute off-planetAI hyperscale demand has hit a hard ceiling: a single facility now requires 100–500 MW, and US grid capacity and permitting timelines (5–7 years) cannot keep pace. SpaceX filed FCC plans in January for up to one million data-centre satellites. Starcloud filed for 88,000. Google’s Project Suncatcher is developing radiation-hardened TPUs for orbital deployment. Nvidia’s GTC 2026 launched the Space-1 Vera Rubin Module for in-orbit AI compute; Starcloud has already trained an LLM in space on Nvidia H100s. This is … Continue reading Orbital data centres: power constraint forces compute off-planet

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Morning Briefing — Wednesday, April 22, 2026 · 6:33 AM EST · 1,180 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s briefing is dominated by the Iran-US ceasefire at its most fragile moment yet — Day 54 of the war, with Trump’s open-ended extension announced this morning displacing last night’s deadline pressure, while the naval blockade dispute makes Iranian participation in Islamabad talks deeply uncertain. The Hormuz economic fallout continues to generate secondary signals: inflation persistence, supply-chain dislocation, and energy-infrastructure damage that will outlast any deal. Macron’s Paris meeting with Lebanese PM Salam yesterday adds a distinctly European note — France is repositioning as an independent actor rather than a US diplomatic relay. 1. What changed 1. Trump extends Iran … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Wednesday, April 22, 2026 · 6:33 AM EST · 1,180 words

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EU AI Office shut out of Mythos as UK AISI leads

Colin Henderson

Resultsense Industry News 17 April 2026 3 min readResultsense via POLITICO Europe EU AI Office locked out of Mythos as UK keeps edge  AI safety groups tell the European Commission its AI Office lacks Mythos access and the staff to evaluate it, while the UK AI Security Institute published technical analysis within a week.  TL;DR: The EU’s AI Office has around 140 staffers, with 36 in the safety unit responsible for the most capable models. Critics interviewed by POLITICO say that is too few coders, too low in the Commission hierarchy, and too far from political leadership to respond to a Mythos-class release. The … Continue reading EU AI Office shut out of Mythos as UK AISI leads

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Morning Briefing — Tuesday, 21 April 2026 · 08:30 EST · ~1,280 words

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is dominated by one countdown: the Iran-US ceasefire — extended by Trump to Wednesday evening — with Vance and Witkoff en route to Islamabad and Tehran publicly saying there are no talks. The Strait of Hormuz remains functionally closed. A parallel Israel-Lebanon direct-talks track offers a rare point of progress. Everything else orbits these dynamics. 1. Top 5–8 Stories — What Changed ⚑ Iran-US talks on a knife edge as ceasefire deadline shifts to WednesdayThe two-week ceasefire agreed April 8 was nominally set to expire today. Trump pushed the deadline to Wednesday evening and called further extension “highly … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Tuesday, 21 April 2026 · 08:30 EST · ~1,280 words

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Morning Briefing — Monday, 20 April 2026 · 8:00 EST · ~1,280 words⸻

Colin Henderson

Today’s environment is defined by a single countdown: the US-Iran ceasefire expires Wednesday. A weekend of reversals — the strait briefly reopened Friday, Iran reclosed it Saturday, the US Navy seized an Iranian vessel, Tehran fired on ships attempting transit — has left all three channels of leverage (military, blockade, negotiation) active simultaneously with no deal visible. Energy markets whipsawed on the chaos. North Korea used the distraction for its fourth missile test in April. London confirmed Iranian proxy involvement in a synagogue arson campaign. And China’s humanoid robots quietly crossed a threshold that has industrial and geopolitical implications no … Continue reading Morning Briefing — Monday, 20 April 2026 · 8:00 EST · ~1,280 words⸻